Search found 9 matches

by j-d
Wed Apr 28, 1999 12:09 pm
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: Modeling the Kosovo Crisis
Replies: 4
Views: 4197

Modeling the Kosovo Crisis

There are insights derived from biology (1 see below) and archetypes used in systems thinking (2 see below) that could have helped us analyze and predict that Kosovo crisis would escalate in the way it has. Serbian forces would perceive Kosovar Albanians as the immdeiate "cause" for NATO b...
by j-d
Sat Apr 17, 1999 4:41 pm
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: land-use and land-ownership at a regional level
Replies: 4
Views: 4314

land-use and land-ownership at a regional level

One way to do this would be to use the agriculture sector component of = World3 model and parametrize it for your specific needs. The global model = parameters and variable relations were mostly derived from regional values, = and, a fortiori, it (as also the other model components) may be used for ...
by j-d
Wed Feb 24, 1999 3:29 am
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: Crude oil prices
Replies: 8
Views: 6439

Crude oil prices

In addition to the chapter 10 (by Morecroft) of this book (Systems Modelling for Energy Policy, (editors Bunn and Larsen)), chapter 11 by David Lane is also an excellent read on how an actual SD model development took place in Shell. It is called: Diary of an Oil Market Model: How a SD Modelling Pro...
by j-d
Mon Feb 01, 1999 12:13 pm
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: Models of foreign relations?
Replies: 3
Views: 3532

Models of foreign relations?

Dear Mr./Ms. M. Jones, SD may be very useful in modeling foreign affairs, given the complex and uncertain nature of issues and relations, hence the need to expand our mental models by repeated/different simulations. Prof. Khalid Saeed has done a huge amount of work in this area. To give you a flavor...
by j-d
Mon Nov 30, 1998 9:32 pm
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: systems archetypes
Replies: 1
Views: 2745

systems archetypes

The following archetypes are commonly used by SDers. (from The Fifth Discipline) 1. Balancing process with delay 2. Limits to growth 3. Shifting the burden 4. Shifting the burden to the intervenor 5. Eroding goals 6. Escalation 7. Success to the successful 8. Tragedy of the commons 9. Fixes that fai...
by j-d
Mon Nov 30, 1998 12:09 pm
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: Optimization and SD
Replies: 5
Views: 4332

Optimization and SD

Dear Arnhild: The topic of combining SD with optimization comes up quite a bit on this list - IMHO, this will grow as SD expands in its applications. Yes, I have experience with what you ask for. There seem to be two senses in which optimization is used with SD - one is parameter optimization, ie, w...
by j-d
Wed Nov 18, 1998 1:06 am
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: GPRs Feedback Thought in Social Science & Systems Theory
Replies: 0
Views: 6426

GPRs Feedback Thought in Social Science & Systems Theory

A kind cybersoul (thanks cybersoul - wherever you are:-) indicated to me that even my new link to this book (in the URL below) does not work!! The reason being that this book is selling like hot cakes. On doing some more research, I found that a QuickSearch of AUTHOR "George Richardson" at...
by j-d
Wed Nov 11, 1998 4:27 pm
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: Reverse Modelling
Replies: 4
Views: 7306

Reverse Modelling

I found this to be a very interesting question. First, it looked like an identification problem. Assuming a general structure of an SD model as dx/dt = f(x,u,t,p) where x is stock/state vector, u is control vector, p is parameter vector, and f is the nonlinear function vector (and remembering foreve...
by j-d
Tue Nov 10, 1998 3:51 am
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: Use of Control Theory in SD
Replies: 1
Views: 3063

Use of Control Theory in SD

Dear Andi My graduate work was in this area, ie, application of optimal control to systems described by system dynamics (differential games, in general). A list of SD and control-related references is given in the web address in my signature. Please contact me for any specific references. Maybe I ca...