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How best to predict the decisions people will make in conflicts? Scott Armstrong and I have found that two methods can provide accurate forecasts of decisions in conflicts: structured analogies, and simulated interaction. This is good news, because the usual method for making such predictions, unaid...

Im writing to let you know about conflictforecasting.com. The conflictforecasting.com pages (http://www.conflictforecasting.com) are a resource for researchers, practitioners, and others with an interest in how best to predict the decisions people will make in conflicts, and in choosing strategies f...