Ventana software support forum

George Richardson wrote: > ... I cant see what this teaches me about complex systems... and Niall Palfreyman wrote something like this: I cant see how I can disagree with George, even though I felt I should While I felt Georges question was highly appropriate, I see some use for the "equidistan...

Niall Palfreyman suggests that CAS is better for modelling individual behaviour and interactions than behaviour of governments (aggregate level decisions), which is better modelled by SD. Here is a quick response: This must be correct to the extent that CAS is only particularly useful if there are m...

If I read Martin Taylor correctly, his argument is that boom and bust is caused by basically rational market behavior and not by misperception: "But while the price seems to be still rising, the _prudent_ investor will hold off selling." This may sound rational at first sight, and I am sur...

Regarding my reply to Niall Palfreyman about the potential usefulness of the equidistance demonstration: My interest in this demonstration was motivated by its simplicity. It only require participants and some open space. I am not aware of any simpler or faster demonstrations. The points I made abou...

I am replaying to Keiths discussion of modeling problems, ending like this: "I dont know if an apple hitting Newton on the head was a problem, but it was a phenomenon that helped define the system under study." I think, in all proper modelling there is a "problem" in the head of ...

I am replying to a request by Bill Buchanan and others about an
electronic copy of my article in Management Science. Send me an email,
and I will send you an Acrobat Reader copy of the report. Do not reply
to the list, send it to the email address below.

Erling

Erling.Moxnes@snf.no

Guenther Ossimitz wrote the following concerning my article in Managment Science: "The findings of Erling Moxnes are no surprise for me. Experiments of the German cognitive psychologist Dietrich Doerner lead to similar results. Doerner e.g. let probands try to keep the temperature of a simulate...

Bernhard, You asked about Diffusion type models. Here is a list of references = from my End Note data base, some more relevant than others. Rogers is the classical reference, some are system dynamics models, most are not. Erling Moxnes Bass, F.M. (1969). "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer...

Regarding John Wolfendens question about modelling costs of CO2 abatements. While general equilibrium models (CGE) of course miss all points about dynamics, they still can produce interesting and relevant answers to given questions. The answers depend on what goes into CGE-models, just as for SD-mod...