Search found 7 matches

by Jay Forrest
Tue Feb 20, 2001 9:28 am
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: The time scale regarding when to use system dynamics
Replies: 8
Views: 6502

The time scale regarding when to use system dynamics

As a "futurist" who works almost exclusively in longer term models I strongly agree that systems thinking (in general) and system dynamics (specifically) can be very valuable in longer term models as suggested by Jay Forrester My work supports the concept (as Bill Harris implies) that the ...
by Jay Forrest
Sun Nov 12, 2000 10:27 am
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: Modelling HRM / Quantifying a model
Replies: 8
Views: 6050

Modelling HRM / Quantifying a model

I heartily support Jims comments but I would suggest that it can be very educational to cascade "soft" lookup functions for you are likely to learn something about the consistency of your assumptions. I.e. a cascaded series of assumptions is unlikely to match your understanding of the macr...
by Jay Forrest
Fri Mar 17, 2000 6:16 pm
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: System Dynamics: Art, Science or Profession
Replies: 19
Views: 13149

System Dynamics: Art, Science or Profession

I must suggest that you are misconstruing my meaning (and perhaps my use of English is at fault.) I am merely suggesting that I see no assurance that the accuracy of output alone is no indication of a meaningful model. Accuracy of output can be achieved through correlation for example with no meanin...
by Jay Forrest
Tue Mar 14, 2000 7:03 am
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: System Dynamics: Art, Science or Profession
Replies: 19
Views: 13149

System Dynamics: Art, Science or Profession

Bruce Campbell wrote: > >My resolution is that the "correct" model is the one that most closely >mimics the actual behaviour observed. It seems to me that Bruce is disconnecting logic or structure from output. I must propose that the accuracy of the output need have no relationship to the ...
by Jay Forrest
Fri Feb 11, 2000 7:50 am
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: Employment and transport
Replies: 1
Views: 2470

Employment and transport

Hi John! Thanks for asking the question. It is of the kind I address routinely as a futurist. >rest of the region will help. One view is that they will, because they >provide better links to markets etc and encourage new businesses to set up >locally. The converse is that better links will give the ...
by Jay Forrest
Mon Jan 03, 2000 8:21 am
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: Resource allocation models
Replies: 28
Views: 41023

Resource Allocation Models

>But I am disturbed by the theme that one should model what people do and >how they make decisions. I thought the purpose of modeling was to discern >the key demands and resources so that the allocation process itself is >improved (including manager behaviors). >Jack Ring, 32712 N. 70th St., Snottsd...
by Jay Forrest
Wed Jul 28, 1999 9:50 am
Forum: SD Mailing List Archive
Topic: Strange spreadsheet concept
Replies: 14
Views: 9482

Strange spreadsheet concept

>A good model must be identifiable in real world. Circular flows are >illogical as far as the real world is concerned. A software that allows >this is not appropriate for use in system dynamics modeling no matter >how compact a model it creates. Is this to imply that you believe there are no closed ...