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Bob Eberlein wrote: "There is, in fact, a wonderful story about census counts and model as applied, I think, to Kenya. There had been two censuses taken some number of years apart (more than 10 if I recall correctly), and a model built to bridge between them. The model simply could not do that ...

Try Fisher, J.C. and R.H. Pry. "A Simple Substitution Model of Technological Change", Technological Forecasting and Social Change 3, 75-88 (1971) If you cannot find this journal, I can send you a copy of the article. Jim Thompson -- Global Prospectus LLC http://www.GlobalProspectus.com jth...