Search found 192 matches

by leon
Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:55 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Thanks.
Let me try both ideas and see what happens.
by leon
Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

I think this could be made quite easy in Vensim. - Create a flag for each driver, indicating whether treatment was received (a constant) or when it was received (time series) - Import the data for ALL drivers - Rewrite "fraction perceived" as something like = IF THEN ELSE( treatment, 1, b...
by leon
Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:46 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

"fraction perceived" as something like = IF THEN ELSE( treatment, 1, base fraction perceived) I agree that fraction perceived (for control group)=1 starting from time=2 (which means my simulated intervention is switched on) and it would be base fraction at time=1 (which is 0.07, the model ...
by leon
Wed Nov 29, 2017 9:00 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

I think I understood what you explained. There is something I'm trying to grasp here.
What do you mean by " Estimate parameters with all drivers pooled'? Calibration?
by leon
Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Yes the initial event rate was subscripted, I mean it was initial event rate[driver]. To be clear, I did not export the treatment group data into Vensim, so don't be thinking I had both sample data into Vensim. Forget about the treatment data for now. I'm sure you would have done differently what I ...
by leon
Wed Nov 29, 2017 3:15 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

How can this be done in Vensim? My fear is my limited knowledge of Vensim. For the group I applied my simulated intervention to, I increased the fraction of events known to 100% starting from month=2 for each driver and recorded the simulated data into Excel for each driver. Then I used a statistica...
by leon
Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:17 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Another way to think about this is: The actual treatment was applied to a group of "good" drivers. They had a very low initial event rate. My simulation was applied to a group of "bad" drivers. They had a high initial event event rate. I would not expect the mean profiles of thes...
by leon
Wed Nov 29, 2017 1:00 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

You are correct. But you would agree with me that the trajectory of the actual treatment response on a driver with an initial event rate of 0.5/mile would not be the same as the trajectory of the actual treatment response on a driver with an initial event rate of 0.1/mile. That's why in statistics, ...
by leon
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:27 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

I don't know if this is feasible in Vensim. I don't know if I used the right term for "offset" Basically let's say I have 2 drivers A and B with initial event rates of 0.1/mile and 0.5/mile respectively. Driver A received the actual treatment starting at Month 2 and I simulated the treatme...
by leon
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

It seems like if I offset this in the model, the 2 mean profiles will overlap. I guess
by leon
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:38 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Dear, I applied my simulated driver feedback intervention to the model. I simply increased the fraction of events known to 100% for each driver and recorded the simulated intervention data. I compared the simulated data to the actual feedback intervention. I used a statistical model for the comparis...
by leon
Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:13 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Are there any cutoffs for the interpretation of the metrics? What can be considered high for MAPE?
I have a lot of undefined (NA) for the variable "events/month"
by leon
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Thank you. Also thanks for the Sterman's paper, it is very helpful.
by leon
Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:53 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Thanks so much!
Is it approach to average each statistics across all subscripts to get a summary statistics?
by leon
Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:08 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

I've upgraded to the new version.
Could you please help me with the interpretation?
I don't know if I need to do some computation to get the R-Square for each subscript.
What do RMSE, Um, Us, Uc, MAE, MAPE, MAEoM mean?
by leon
Fri Nov 17, 2017 11:50 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

I thought I was using the last version. The 7 version has been downloaded recently. So I need to download the 7.1?
by leon
Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

I'm using the version 7. Is there any other ways around?
Thanks
by leon
Fri Nov 17, 2017 8:46 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

I've have been trying to make sense of the payoff report over the last several days, but I'm not getting it.
Do I need to do some computation to get the R-square or did I check the wrong box? Please help
Thanks
by leon
Thu Nov 09, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Sorry, but which file has the payoff report? I went through the different outputs generated from the model calibration and I did not see the payoff report file.
Thanks
by leon
Thu Nov 09, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

The stat tools are showing means, median, std etc.; but I'm looking for model performance metrics (eg. R-squared). Please, see the file (summary statistics) I attached to you.
Thanks
by leon
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:56 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Sorry, one more question.
I set the sensitivity to payoff value during the calibration (optimization) and I got the attached results. Are those confidence intervals around the parameter estimates 95%CI?
Thanks
by leon
Thu Nov 09, 2017 12:39 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Thanks Tomnfid.

Is it possible to obtain summary statistics from the current version of Vensim? See attached what I found online.

Thanks
by leon
Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:40 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

The calibration results do not show standard errors around the estimates. Or where to find those standard errors?
by leon
Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:52 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

Perfect! Thank you.

One more question. Can you share a help link I can follow to determine 95% confidence interval around parameters estimated from model calibration?
by leon
Fri Sep 29, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Help with model calibration
Replies: 359
Views: 128452

Re: Help with model calibration

It says " the following inputs were not expected (but are used): cost of events, cost of treatment. Do you want to update the input list and modify the diagram" For decision rule on treatment, I specified: Treatment=if then else (cost of events<cost of treatment, 0, 1) I'm not sure this wa...