Search found 47 matches

by johnjohnson4
Mon Aug 29, 2016 1:42 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Sensitivity Simulation Setup
Replies: 6
Views: 3623

Re: Sensitivity Simulation Setup

I have it set for 1458 simulations. There are 6 variable with 3 levels each. the 3x6 factorial is 729 simulations. I am doing two replications or 1458 simulations. I selected MV so the order of combination should be random.
by johnjohnson4
Mon Aug 29, 2016 1:09 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Sensitivity Simulation Setup
Replies: 6
Views: 3623

Sensitivity Simulation Setup

Hello, I noticed that if I change the order of the independent variables in the senssitivity set up I get different results! Is this by design? if so please explain. See attached model. The dependent variable in question is IRE (∆I/∆Itp). I am using Vensim® PLE Plus for Windows Version 6.4b (x32) Se...
by johnjohnson4
Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:25 pm
Forum: System Dynamics Discussion
Topic: Dependent Variable Noise
Replies: 2
Views: 3586

Re: Dependent Variable Noise

Thanks very much for your reply. It was very helpful!

V/r,
john
by johnjohnson4
Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:40 pm
Forum: System Dynamics Discussion
Topic: Dependent Variable Noise
Replies: 2
Views: 3586

Dependent Variable Noise

I am doing a design of experiment with my model and need to add "pure error" ( i.e., noise) to a dependent variable. The variable is IRE Trend (∆I/∆Itp) in the attached model. Is there a prefered or recomended way to add noise to a variable? a) Multiply by the dependent variabe by a random...
by johnjohnson4
Fri Jul 01, 2016 10:36 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Creating a Random Distribution on Every Run
Replies: 11
Views: 6068

Re: Creating a Random Distribution on Every Run

JJ! Thanks for the get vdf idea. I'll give that a try. I actually figured out a solution as well. If you make the seed a variable and set it as a multivariate parameter in the sensitivity analysis, you will get a different seed on each simulation run. I'll add your get vdf to my bag of tricks. Thank...
by johnjohnson4
Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:33 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Creating a Random Distribution on Every Run
Replies: 11
Views: 6068

Re: Creating a Random Distribution on Every Run

Tried GET TIME VALUE. Its not supported in PLE+

Any other options?
by johnjohnson4
Mon Jun 27, 2016 1:24 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Creating a Random Distribution on Every Run
Replies: 11
Views: 6068

Re: Creating a Random Distribution on Every Run

Correct. I am trying to do many sensitivity runs and would like to use a different seed each time. This will give me a broadly distributed residual error for my data points. Looks like GET TIME VALUE will get different seeds within the simulation run but each run will still be the same. Correct? I n...
by johnjohnson4
Mon Jun 27, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Creating a Random Distribution on Every Run
Replies: 11
Views: 6068

Creating a Random Distribution on Every Run

Hello,
Is there a way to have a random distribution change on each simulation run?

I am doing a sensitivity analysis and would like to have the random distribution (preferably uniform or normal) change on each run. Can I make the seed random?

Thanks,
john
by johnjohnson4
Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:23 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity
Replies: 16
Views: 7797

Re: Monte Carlo Sensitivity

Sorry ... False Alarm! I restarted the program and it is working fine now.
by johnjohnson4
Sun Jun 19, 2016 11:16 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity
Replies: 16
Views: 7797

Re: Monte Carlo Sensitivity

Simulation seems to work fine. still seems to work fine. However, .vsc files are not loading and or not being saved correctly. Same for .lst files. Model parameters have to be entered each time rather than using saved parameter values. Not sure if i'm doing something wrong. I was able to do this suc...
by johnjohnson4
Fri Jun 17, 2016 2:22 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity
Replies: 16
Views: 7797

Re: Monte Carlo Sensitivity

AWESOME! :D

Ran a few tests and it seems to be working great. So far I tried up to multivariate five factors with four levels and 500 iterations. No problem. Not sure but it seem to run faster than 6.4a

Just in time for my research deadline.

THANK YOU!

All the best,
john
by johnjohnson4
Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:15 am
Forum: System Dynamics Discussion
Topic: Modelling customer behavior-cohort system
Replies: 4
Views: 5307

Re: Modelling customer behavior-cohort system

Is your formula for the Customer 6 order correct?

Customers 6 orders=Drop out sixth order+Sixth order rate

Seem like it should be

Customers 6 orders = Sixth order rate - Drop out sixth order
by johnjohnson4
Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:06 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity
Replies: 16
Views: 7797

Re: Monte Carlo Sensitivity

Hello Tom,
Is there an estimated release date of the new build? Hate to be a pest but I have a research deadline rapidly approaching.

Thx,
john
by johnjohnson4
Tue Jun 14, 2016 12:36 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity
Replies: 16
Views: 7797

Re: Monte Carlo Sensitivity

I see the FP when I increment Degrees of Freedom (Df) from .6 to about .7

Your text file look right. How do fix I load the fix?
by johnjohnson4
Tue Jun 14, 2016 12:06 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity
Replies: 16
Views: 7797

Re: Monte Carlo Sensitivity

That's good news! Your clue about a floating point error made me look at the model closer. I am using "SAMPLE IF TRUE" function for the IRE auxiliary variable. If i manually iterate the constants in the sensitivity analysis, I see a very quick floating point error as the IRE variable trans...
by johnjohnson4
Mon Jun 13, 2016 4:11 pm
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity
Replies: 16
Views: 7797

Re: Monte Carlo Sensitivity

Thanks in advance for taking a look.
by johnjohnson4
Mon Jun 13, 2016 1:09 am
Forum: Vensim
Topic: Monte Carlo Sensitivity
Replies: 16
Views: 7797

Monte Carlo Sensitivity

Hello,
I have 5 parameters and 3 levels and wan to run a sensitivity analysis using the vector distribution and latin grid. Each time I try to run the analysis, the process stops before completing all of the simulations. The same thing happens even if I make it 2 levels.

Any ideas?
by johnjohnson4
Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:35 pm
Forum: System Dynamics Discussion
Topic: Tipping Point
Replies: 7
Views: 5432

Re: Tipping Point

Thanks very much for your help! My tipping point model works great (see attached). Any recommended improvements are welcome.

John
by johnjohnson4
Tue Mar 15, 2016 5:31 pm
Forum: System Dynamics Discussion
Topic: Tipping Point
Replies: 7
Views: 5432

Re: Tipping Point

AWESOME!
SAMPLE IF TRUE works! This may be the key to my tipping point problem. Will post my final solution.

Thanks
by johnjohnson4
Tue Mar 15, 2016 3:51 pm
Forum: System Dynamics Discussion
Topic: Tipping Point
Replies: 7
Views: 5432

Re: Tipping Point

That sounds exactly like what I need. Unfortunately SAMPLE IF TRUE is not available for PLE+ ( or PLP)

Guess I should have mentioned the version of Vensim I am working with in my original post. Can I create the functionality manually by combining other functions?
by johnjohnson4
Tue Mar 15, 2016 3:03 pm
Forum: System Dynamics Discussion
Topic: Tipping Point
Replies: 7
Views: 5432

Re: Tipping Point

Thank you very much. This is a good hint. My challenge now is holding the tipping point once it is reached. 1) Lets say the values for "stock A" are: 1,3,2,4,10,1,2 2) The tipping point =9 3) I used the Max function to "Test" if tipping point was reached: "Test" =MAX (&...
by johnjohnson4
Mon Mar 14, 2016 5:38 pm
Forum: System Dynamics Discussion
Topic: Tipping Point
Replies: 7
Views: 5432

Tipping Point

Hello , I am attempting to model the dynamics of a tipping point: 1) Stock A increases then returns to its initial value. 2) If Stock A increase beyond a certain point (tipping point) then it will decrease to a new level = initial value +X Any good ideas / examples? I gave it a try ( see attached) O...