SD models for demand forcasting

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arman
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SD models for demand forcasting

Post by arman »

Hi,

I am looking for SD models for demand forecasting in the context of product consumers and supply chain. Can anyone share models or guidelines for modeling demand in general in SD?
tomfid
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Re: SD models for demand forcasting

Post by tomfid »

We do a ton of that, but the models are usually proprietary. http://www.ventanasystems.com/model_typ ... marketing/

"Demand forecasting" is a bit too broad to answer - demand for what? Over what horizon? For what purpose?

Have you searched the SD conference archives?
arman
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Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2016 11:45 am
Vensim version: PLE

Re: SD models for demand forcasting

Post by arman »

I am looking for "generic structures" for demand forecasting in system dynamics. below is an article for a generic case of a supply chain (no product is mentioned in the article). a simple smoothing structure is used in this case.

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ply_chains

in my case, the product is considered non-perishable. I need to develop a formula for "order decision" and calculate demand during lead time. if we know the rate of consumption how do we calculate an order decision to a supplier based on the available inventory at hand?
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tomfid
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Re: SD models for demand forcasting

Post by tomfid »

John Sterman's Business Dynamics has a whole chapter on this.

However, this isn't really "demand forecasting" - it's inventory management. The demand forecast here is just a SMOOTH of sales. Forecasting sales requires a dynamic model of the behavior and physics of customers that causes sales. For example, in pharma, you'd model the incidence and prevalence of a disease and patients' course of therapy.
tomfid
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Re: SD models for demand forcasting

Post by tomfid »

This is sort of relevant as an example: http://metasd.com/2013/11/facebook-reloaded-2013/
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