Hi,
I am looking for SD models for demand forecasting in the context of product consumers and supply chain. Can anyone share models or guidelines for modeling demand in general in SD?
SD models for demand forcasting
Re: SD models for demand forcasting
We do a ton of that, but the models are usually proprietary. http://www.ventanasystems.com/model_typ ... marketing/
"Demand forecasting" is a bit too broad to answer - demand for what? Over what horizon? For what purpose?
Have you searched the SD conference archives?
"Demand forecasting" is a bit too broad to answer - demand for what? Over what horizon? For what purpose?
Have you searched the SD conference archives?
/*
Advice to posters (it really helps us to help you)
http://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/v ... f=2&t=4391
Blog: http://blog.metasd.com
Model library: http://models.metasd.com
Bookmarks: http://delicious.com/tomfid/SystemDynamics
*/
Advice to posters (it really helps us to help you)
http://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/v ... f=2&t=4391
Blog: http://blog.metasd.com
Model library: http://models.metasd.com
Bookmarks: http://delicious.com/tomfid/SystemDynamics
*/
Re: SD models for demand forcasting
I am looking for "generic structures" for demand forecasting in system dynamics. below is an article for a generic case of a supply chain (no product is mentioned in the article). a simple smoothing structure is used in this case.
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ply_chains
in my case, the product is considered non-perishable. I need to develop a formula for "order decision" and calculate demand during lead time. if we know the rate of consumption how do we calculate an order decision to a supplier based on the available inventory at hand?
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio ... ply_chains
in my case, the product is considered non-perishable. I need to develop a formula for "order decision" and calculate demand during lead time. if we know the rate of consumption how do we calculate an order decision to a supplier based on the available inventory at hand?
- Attachments
-
- Capture.PNG (82.56 KiB) Viewed 3014 times
Re: SD models for demand forcasting
John Sterman's Business Dynamics has a whole chapter on this.
However, this isn't really "demand forecasting" - it's inventory management. The demand forecast here is just a SMOOTH of sales. Forecasting sales requires a dynamic model of the behavior and physics of customers that causes sales. For example, in pharma, you'd model the incidence and prevalence of a disease and patients' course of therapy.
However, this isn't really "demand forecasting" - it's inventory management. The demand forecast here is just a SMOOTH of sales. Forecasting sales requires a dynamic model of the behavior and physics of customers that causes sales. For example, in pharma, you'd model the incidence and prevalence of a disease and patients' course of therapy.
/*
Advice to posters (it really helps us to help you)
http://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/v ... f=2&t=4391
Blog: http://blog.metasd.com
Model library: http://models.metasd.com
Bookmarks: http://delicious.com/tomfid/SystemDynamics
*/
Advice to posters (it really helps us to help you)
http://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/v ... f=2&t=4391
Blog: http://blog.metasd.com
Model library: http://models.metasd.com
Bookmarks: http://delicious.com/tomfid/SystemDynamics
*/
Re: SD models for demand forcasting
This is sort of relevant as an example: http://metasd.com/2013/11/facebook-reloaded-2013/
/*
Advice to posters (it really helps us to help you)
http://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/v ... f=2&t=4391
Blog: http://blog.metasd.com
Model library: http://models.metasd.com
Bookmarks: http://delicious.com/tomfid/SystemDynamics
*/
Advice to posters (it really helps us to help you)
http://www.ventanasystems.co.uk/forum/v ... f=2&t=4391
Blog: http://blog.metasd.com
Model library: http://models.metasd.com
Bookmarks: http://delicious.com/tomfid/SystemDynamics
*/