Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

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WayneZhou2009
Senior Member
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2017 3:52 pm
Vensim version: PRO

Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

Post by WayneZhou2009 »

Hi,

This might be a trivial question - why my payoff reporting file does not contain information on Goodness of Fit, Theil Statistics, and Absolute Errors? It only has information on Metadata & Contributions.

Many thanks.
WayneZhou2009
Senior Member
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2017 3:52 pm
Vensim version: PRO

Re: Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

Post by WayneZhou2009 »

Hi,
Would anyone share some experience in this, please? Many thanks.
tomfid
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Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 4:54 am

Re: Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

Post by tomfid »

The stats are only present for calibration elements.

I think there was a bug - now fixed - related to synthetic data stats, so check that your version is up to date.

Otherwise, we'd need to see the payoff file at a minimum.
WayneZhou2009
Senior Member
Posts: 105
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2017 3:52 pm
Vensim version: PRO

Re: Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

Post by WayneZhou2009 »

Hi Tom, thanks for your reply. I just updated my Vensim Pro to the latest version 7.3.5. But the problem remains. The following is all information contained in my .rep file after running a payoff optimization. Is there a way to show the full information, e.g. Goodness of Fit, etc?

The payoff is -20.5587
The following are the components of the payoff:
Type Component Contribution Percent Values Params Used Skipped
*P Total Log Likelihood/1 -20.5587 100 -20.5587 0 101 0

Sources for exogenous variables
Data of vehicle inventory Data for calibration 1.xlsx
Linear data of vehicle inventory Data for calibration 1.xlsx
Original Data of vehicle inventory Data for calibration 1.xlsx
tomfid
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Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 4:54 am

Re: Payoff report has no info on Goodness of Fit etc

Post by tomfid »

A policy (*P) payoff element has no statistics, because Vensim has no way to know what you're comparing.

If you want the built-in stats, you can use a mixed payoff, with *P for priors and penalty terms, and *C for model-data comparisons.
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