Modeling the Kosovo Crisis

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carolus
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Posts: 18
Joined: Wed Mar 31, 2004 5:14 pm

Modeling the Kosovo Crisis

Post by carolus »

I was wondering whether someone has (made) a model of the escalating
KOSOVO crisis?

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Carolus Gr=FCtters

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email: carolus@jur.kun.nl The Netherlands
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"Gerald O. Barney"
Junior Member
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Modeling the Kosovo Crisis

Post by "Gerald O. Barney" »

To: Carolus Gr=FCtters
From: Gerald Barney, President, Millennium Institute

Millennium Institute has a model that could be applied but has not. It
is the Threshold 21 national sustainable development model. T21 is
a generic national model built up around and improved version
of the World Banks Revised Minimum Standard Model Extended
(RMSM-X) it has been applied to 8 countries, two industrialized
(USA and Italy) and the rest developing or in-transition. The model
integrates economic, resource, environmental, social, military,
population,
and finance issues in a single model. It addresses the questions: (1)
how
much faster will an economy grow if X amount of additional capital
is added to the economy and (2) how will the growth experienced
depend on how the capital is used? It simulates a 50 year period.

To apply the model to Kosovo, one would shorten the simulation period
to perhaps 6 months to 2 years. Then (1) add a bit of detail to the
military sector and (2) a bombing effectiveness sector with exogenous
inputs of the fraction capital of various types destroyed over time.
The
model would then show the progressive impact of the destruction on the
economy. A wide variety of indices of living conditions would be
calculated
automatically, including the national accounts, the UNs Human
Development
Index, the UNs Gender Development Index, and the World Banks
Genuine Savings and Total Capital (produced, natural, and human)
measures.

NATO has now said it is committed to rebuilding, and the T21 model
could also be used to project the consequences of different levels of
effort to rebuild the economy after hostilities stop. One would simply
turn off the bombing, begin a flow of investment, and extend the time
horizon to a decade or two. The model could test the effectiveness
of alternative investment strategies and project the rate of recovery.
It would also calculate the costs to restore the physical parts of what
was destroyed.

To apply T21 to Kosovo would require about 2 or 3 months of several
of our staff.

Know anyone interested?

Gerald O. Barney
From: "Gerald O. Barney" <
gbarney@igc.org>
"jos de neve"
Junior Member
Posts: 4
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Modeling the Kosovo Crisis

Post by "jos de neve" »

there should be a war game model (made by nato)
to which wargame montegrin officials leaders were invited
see article in Finacial times dd 21 apr page 2
title: "akrona" war game is too close to home
I fax copy to you

jos de neve
From: "jos de neve" <esg@skynet.be>
executive support group
snepkaai 6
B 9000 gent - belgium
tel +32.(0)9.2228045
fax +32.(0)9.2450950
gsm +32.(0)75.750092
j-d
Junior Member
Posts: 9
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Modeling the Kosovo Crisis

Post by j-d »

There are insights derived from biology (1 see below) and archetypes used
in systems thinking (2 see below) that could have helped us analyze and
predict that Kosovo crisis would escalate in the way it has. Serbian forces
would perceive Kosovar Albanians as the immdeiate "cause" for NATO bombing
(Behavior under stress), and set out to escalate the ethnic cleansing in
response to this bombing. This would lead to more intense bombings, and
hence more rapid cleansing, ad infinitum (Escalation). (We are in this
unfortunate stage right now). This could lead to a fix, such as: an
independent Kosovo, a world war, total destruction of Yugoslav
infrastructure or some compromise mixture of these. An independent Kosovo
for Albanians could be a fix that causes future wars (A Fix that fails). A
demolished Yugoslavia would be a fix that fails. What should be done in
this case?

Obviously, this is an extremely messy situation, with goals and objectives
of parties not very clearly defined, or made explicit for security reasons.
Also, there is a rich cultural, religious social history that can make
people misunderstand the region and apply bad policies. Modeling of such a
situation, in my view, is very hard. Ideally, taking examples of similar
situations from the past and modeling them to show (as scientifically as
possible) that a scenario such as the current crisis is plausible would
make policy makers, hopefully, think and act differently in the future.

(1) The reference here is to studies done in biology on mice, in which they
were put on a metallic grid and given electrical shocks. The response of
these mice was to respond by attacking each other. To the extent this can
be extrapolated to humans, what it means is that humans would respond
similarly to systemic stresses by being aggressive toward each other
(examples: persecution of Jews in the thirties; the recent racial violence
in UK). If someone can give me the exact reference to this study, that will
be nice.

(2) Senge, 5th Discipline, pages 384 and 388, for details and influence
diagrams of how these archetypes apply to such situations.

Regards

Jaideep
From: j-d <j-d@technologist.com>
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Jaideep Mukherjee, Ph. D.
Phone: 713 523 2713; Fax: 713 523 0379
Virtual Office http://www.netopia.geocities.com/shunya/
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H.L.Mitchell@open.ac.uk (Lyle Mi
Junior Member
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Modeling the Kosovo Crisis

Post by H.L.Mitchell@open.ac.uk (Lyle Mi »

Geoff Coyle has a large section on modeling combat situations in his
new book on Systems Dynamics Modeling. Well worth a look at.

Cheers (Non-alcoholic though)

Lyle

The Open University
Faculty of Technology
Co-operatives Research Unit
Department of Systems
Walton Hall
Milton Keynes
MK7 6AA
UK

+44-1908-653654
H.L.Mitchell@open.ac.uk
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