Crude oil prices

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j-d
Junior Member
Posts: 9
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Crude oil prices

Post by j-d »

In addition to the chapter 10 (by Morecroft) of this book (Systems
Modelling for Energy Policy, (editors Bunn and Larsen)), chapter 11 by
David Lane is also an excellent read on how an actual SD model development
took place in Shell. It is called: Diary of an Oil Market Model: How a SD
Modelling Process was Used with Managers to Resolve Conflict and to
Generate Insight. The names and location details are hidden for commercial
reasons, but the analysis and modeling process details are clear and very
good. The clients (Shell managers) doubts are typical. "Martin" the SD
MIT modeler "is very keen that we avoid going by product prices" - BUT THEN
"our link between supply/demand ratio and indicated margin is received
badly" and on and on... This discussion on how to reflect prices in SD
modeling reflects IMHO an old-debate from the Limits to Growth days -
prices using supply-demand balance (as economic theory would dictate) or
via a simpler "indicated price" type mechanism?? This debate especially hit
home for me as I was involved in a similar struggle last year - trying to
model Chinese oil/natural gas prices in a model, without going the
complicated route of a supply-demand clearance mechanism, and not feeling
very comfortable with it. Bull:Red Cloth :: Neoclassical
Economist:Indicated Price.

Lane in the end makes a convincing case for the insight-building,
intuition-creating capabilities of SD.

If you havent seen this book, I would very strongly recommend it. It is
essential for anyone involved in SD applications in electric
utilities/energy/oil and natural gas industries. Links to this and other SD
book reviews available through the URL in my signature as usual (use mouse
"cut & paste" to locate book title).

Regards

Jaideep
From: j-d <j-d@technologist.com>
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Jaideep Mukherjee, Ph. D.
Phone: 713 523 2713; Fax: 713 523 0379
Virtual Office http://www.netopia.geocities.com/shunya/
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Eric
Newbie
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Crude oil prices

Post by Eric »

After all the discussion on oil price modeling, I am very interested in
some of the models that people are developing. I am aware that some
developed models are not publically available. But I would be interested in
what we could collectively develop through discussion and critique. I would
also volunteer to mediate such a colaborative work seperate from the list
and post a model library. If interested please email era96@hampshire.edu

Thank you,
Eric R. Anderson
From: Eric <era96@hampshire.edu>
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