Guenter,
As far as I know the only general and fairly reliable way to analyze a
causal loop diagram is to build a simulation model of it and then analyze
the simulation.
Regards,
Jim Hines
MIT and LeapTec
From: "Jim Hines" <JimHines@Interserv.com>
Methods for analysing Causal Loop Diagramms
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Methods for analysing Causal Loop Diagramms
Well said Jim,
Perhaps model building and experimentation with a model should come before
systems thinking not after.
Khalid
From: Khalid Saeed <saeed@WPI.EDU>
Perhaps model building and experimentation with a model should come before
systems thinking not after.
Khalid
From: Khalid Saeed <saeed@WPI.EDU>
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Methods for analysing Causal Loop Diagramms
Dear SDers,
do know which methods could be applied to analyse Causal loop diagrams.
I try to do an qualitative assessment of an complex Causal Loop Diagram.
First and easy ist to count the which elements are are most active and
which are most passive.
Another approach would be to estimate and count all possible paths through
the model and calculate if the effects for the path are positive or negative.
So now my question: Did you have ever heard from a qualitative analyse in
this way or do you know where I can information about this issue.
Many thanks
Guenter
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Mag. Guenter Emberger
Institut fuer Verkehrsplanung (TUW-IVV)
TU-Wien
Gusshausstrasse 30/2
A-1040 Vienna
Telefon : +43 1 58801 23112
Fax : +43 1 58801 23199
e-mail : guenter.emberger@tuwien.ac.at
www : http:www-ivv.tuwien.ac.at
-----------------------------------------------------------------
do know which methods could be applied to analyse Causal loop diagrams.
I try to do an qualitative assessment of an complex Causal Loop Diagram.
First and easy ist to count the which elements are are most active and
which are most passive.
Another approach would be to estimate and count all possible paths through
the model and calculate if the effects for the path are positive or negative.
So now my question: Did you have ever heard from a qualitative analyse in
this way or do you know where I can information about this issue.
Many thanks
Guenter
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Mag. Guenter Emberger
Institut fuer Verkehrsplanung (TUW-IVV)
TU-Wien
Gusshausstrasse 30/2
A-1040 Vienna
Telefon : +43 1 58801 23112
Fax : +43 1 58801 23199
e-mail : guenter.emberger@tuwien.ac.at
www : http:www-ivv.tuwien.ac.at
-----------------------------------------------------------------
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Methods for analysing Causal Loop Diagramms
Dear Guenter,
I think a paper
eport written by David Ford David.Ford@ifi.uib.no
<mailto:David.Ford@ifi.uib.no> could be interesting for you. It was
something:
"A Behavioral Approach to Feedback Loop Dominance Analysis"
Please contact him to get a copy.
Best wishes,
From: Jamal Nasir <jamal@mot.chalmers.se>
**************************************************************
J A M A L N A S I R
School of Technology management & Economics
CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
S-412 96 Gothenburg, SWEDEN
Tel: +46 31 772 2491(Off.), +46 31 488093(Res.)
Fax: +46 31 772 2497
http://www.mot.chalmers.se/mcf/staff/ja_na.htm
<http://www.mot.chalmers.se/mcf/staff/ja_na.htm>
*************************************************************
I think a paper
eport written by David Ford David.Ford@ifi.uib.no
<mailto:David.Ford@ifi.uib.no> could be interesting for you. It was
something:
"A Behavioral Approach to Feedback Loop Dominance Analysis"
Please contact him to get a copy.
Best wishes,
From: Jamal Nasir <jamal@mot.chalmers.se>
**************************************************************
J A M A L N A S I R
School of Technology management & Economics
CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
S-412 96 Gothenburg, SWEDEN
Tel: +46 31 772 2491(Off.), +46 31 488093(Res.)
Fax: +46 31 772 2497
http://www.mot.chalmers.se/mcf/staff/ja_na.htm
<http://www.mot.chalmers.se/mcf/staff/ja_na.htm>
*************************************************************
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- Junior Member
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- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
Methods for analysing Causal Loop Diagramms
Guenter Emberger wrote:
> Dear SDers,
> do know which methods could be applied to analyse Causal loop diagrams.
> I try to do an qualitative assessment of an complex Causal Loop Diagram.
> First and easy ist to count the which elements are are most active and
> which are most passive.
This is an approach that has been developed and marketed by FredericVester (which
is most probably unknown outside the German speaking
countries). First he called it "Papiercomputer", now he sells it computerized
for quite a lot of money as "Sensitivitaetsmodell".
> Another approach would be to estimate and count all possible paths through
> the model and calculate if the effects for the path are positive or negative.
The most elementary approach to analyze causal loop diagrams isto identify
"positive" and "negative" feedback loops. In the context
of organizations famous Peter M. Senge made a whole "discipline" out of this
in his book "The Fifth Discipline".
Of course quite a number of SDers think rather low of qualitative analysis
(see e.g. Jim Hines reply). Quantitative modeling is that what counts for them:
there one gets "precise" graphs and figures and predictions and so on.
Qualitative approaches are much less standardized than the "hard" quantitative
SD modeling methodology. This makes them more prone to criticism, but
IMHO they have the advantage to be much more flexible so that they
can applied in contexts where quantitative modeling simply is not adequate
or rather artificial (like quantifying Hamlets emotions in a SD model suggested
by Peterson).
Greetings
--
<b>ass</b>. Prof. Dr. Guenther OSSIMITZ
University of Klagenfurt
A-9020 Klagenfurt, Univ.str. 65 Austria/Europe
mail: ossimitz@bigfoot.com
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/home.htm
JESUS IS LORD - YESTERDAY, TODAY AND FOREVER!
> Dear SDers,
> do know which methods could be applied to analyse Causal loop diagrams.
> I try to do an qualitative assessment of an complex Causal Loop Diagram.
> First and easy ist to count the which elements are are most active and
> which are most passive.
This is an approach that has been developed and marketed by FredericVester (which
is most probably unknown outside the German speaking
countries). First he called it "Papiercomputer", now he sells it computerized
for quite a lot of money as "Sensitivitaetsmodell".
> Another approach would be to estimate and count all possible paths through
> the model and calculate if the effects for the path are positive or negative.
The most elementary approach to analyze causal loop diagrams isto identify
"positive" and "negative" feedback loops. In the context
of organizations famous Peter M. Senge made a whole "discipline" out of this
in his book "The Fifth Discipline".
Of course quite a number of SDers think rather low of qualitative analysis
(see e.g. Jim Hines reply). Quantitative modeling is that what counts for them:
there one gets "precise" graphs and figures and predictions and so on.
Qualitative approaches are much less standardized than the "hard" quantitative
SD modeling methodology. This makes them more prone to criticism, but
IMHO they have the advantage to be much more flexible so that they
can applied in contexts where quantitative modeling simply is not adequate
or rather artificial (like quantifying Hamlets emotions in a SD model suggested
by Peterson).
Greetings
--
<b>ass</b>. Prof. Dr. Guenther OSSIMITZ
University of Klagenfurt
A-9020 Klagenfurt, Univ.str. 65 Austria/Europe
mail: ossimitz@bigfoot.com
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/home.htm
JESUS IS LORD - YESTERDAY, TODAY AND FOREVER!
-
- Member
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Methods for analysing Causal Loop Diagramms
There are no exact methods that enable one to deduce system dynamics from
causal loop diagrams. Nevertheless, here is some related work to my
kowledge:
- Several articles published over the past 25 years on "loop dominance" and
"shift of dominance".
- Although I did not read his thesis, Mohammad Mojdehadzadehs Ph.D thesis
sounds like it has some relevance (Mohammad or others from SUNY-Albany?)
- You should read QUALITATIVE simulation literature. Although quite
incomplete, there are some interesting rigourous attempts.
Yaman Barlas
Bogazici Univ.
From: Yaman Barlas <ybarlas@boun.edu.tr>
causal loop diagrams. Nevertheless, here is some related work to my
kowledge:
- Several articles published over the past 25 years on "loop dominance" and
"shift of dominance".
- Although I did not read his thesis, Mohammad Mojdehadzadehs Ph.D thesis
sounds like it has some relevance (Mohammad or others from SUNY-Albany?)
- You should read QUALITATIVE simulation literature. Although quite
incomplete, there are some interesting rigourous attempts.
Yaman Barlas
Bogazici Univ.
From: Yaman Barlas <ybarlas@boun.edu.tr>