System Dynamcis work on terrrorism

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zenabraham@aol.com
Junior Member
Posts: 18
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

System Dynamcis work on terrrorism

Post by zenabraham@aol.com »

Hello,

I would suggest looking at the High Performance Systems web site, and their
area on "stories." Theyve produced a healthy body of work on the subject of
terrorism.

Zennie Abraham
From: zenabraham@aol.com
Bruce Skarin
Junior Member
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

System Dynamcis work on terrrorism

Post by Bruce Skarin »

Hello,

I would like to respond to a few comments and pose a few more questions,
but first a small update: MSN decided that communities sounded too
exclusive so the new web address for the site Im using to share results
is now: http://groups.msn.com/TerrorDynamics/

The old address should work for a while, but if you are intrested in the
long-term progress you will need to bookmark the above address or apply
for membership to the site (not required to view files).

Next I wanted to comment on some of Geoffs responses to Rods email.

> This is a subject on which work has been published, but some time ago.

Where is this work? Unfortunately the research databases that I used
turned up very little about system dynamics approaches to terrorism,
conflict resolution. Most databases do not even have a single listing from
the SD review, and the most I ever came across listed 3 articles.

Is there something that can be done to increase the public listings of SD
literature?

Next why do you feel like that it would be an inappropriate time for SD
work on terorism to be published? You are correct, everyone can read, but
do feel that the work currently being published (and read) on terrorism is
the most appropriate? Wouldnt now be an ideal time to offer some new and
different insights?

> I always ask my students to justify their choice of methodology so why does
> Rod think that SD would be a useful tool for this problem? What other

To me SD is a far more understandable approach than many other analytical
methodologies. Since terrorism invovles many different individuals with
various backgrounds and often conflicting viewpoints, it will be necessary
to use such techniques for developing a better general awareness regarding
the problem. While I do belive it takes trained professionals to properly
apply SD, it has been my experience that the findings of an SD study are
remarkably understandable by those unfamiliar with SD.

What is your opinion of using SD Geoff? I have always appreciated your
thoughtful questions on the listserve, but I am also interested in hearing
some of the motivation behind the questions.

Sincerely,

Bruce Skarin
bruceskarin@hotmail.com
"geoff coyle"
Senior Member
Posts: 94
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

System Dynamcis work on terrrorism

Post by "geoff coyle" »

Bruce wrote:

>
> Next why do you feel like that it would be an inappropriate time for SD
> work on terorism to be published? You are correct, everyone can read, but
> do feel that the work currently being published (and read) on terrorism is
> the most appropriate? Wouldnt now be an ideal time to offer some new and
> different insights?

It all depends on how, and to whom, they are offered. All civilised people
were appalled and grieved at the loss of about 3000 lives in New York last
September. It might have been many more had it not been for the gallantry
and skill of the NYPD and NYFD. That is, of course, not the only case by any
manner of means. Maybe you dont realise that more than 3500 people have
been killed in Northern Ireland (with some dead in England) by
paramilitaries since 1979. So, by all means, generate new insights but do
it on behalf of those who have the responsibility for dealing with these
horrors and dont make it public.

> To me SD is a far more understandable approach than many other analytical
> methodologies.

With all respect, understandabilituy is irrelevant. What matters is
applicability to the problem in hand.

>
> What is your opinion of using SD Geoff? I have always appreciated your
> thoughtful questions on the listserve, but I am also interested in hearing
> some of the motivation behind the questions.

Thanks for the compliment! Of, course, I know from experience that SD is
very powerful for dealing with issues exhibiting dynamic behaviour and where
there are policies to be designed which might, in some way, improve
behaviour. In that sense I am certain it might add value to the study of
some aspects of terrorism. The difficulties are first that there are about
four different sorts of terrorism and, secondly, that terrorism involves two
(or more) sides engaged in violent conflict. That makes is exceedingly
hard, in my view (Ill get torn to shreds for this) to build a quantified
simulation model. The best that can be done is probably a qualitative model
(or influence diagram - NOT the same thing as a CLD).

I did mention other techniques for understanding terrorism at a broad level
and impact wheels and the military appreciation come to mind.

On the other hand, as an ex-soldier, I would not dream of using SD to plan
military operations against terrorists though they are part of problem.

I hope that all this helps.

Geoff
From: "geoff coyle" <
geoff.coyle@btinternet.com>
"Alexander (Sasha) Lubyansky"
Junior Member
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

System Dynamcis work on terrrorism

Post by "Alexander (Sasha) Lubyansky" »

Hello, Geoff. I have been following this thread and I have some questions
about your position on this topic, as well as (of course) a few respectful
disagreements.

On Wed, 19 Jun 2002, geoff coyle wrote:

> With all respect, understandabilituy is irrelevant. What matters is
> applicability to the problem in hand.

I would agree that in many cases understandability is secondary to
applicability. However, I think that in cases where you are making a model
for a large audience or one without a technical background,
understandability is vital. Specifically, this would apply most when the
purpose of your model is understanding of a problem. If your audience
cannot easily understand your model, then they will ignore it. In
terms of creating and applying policy, is not one of the strengths of SD
that you can create concensus through understanding?

> Thanks for the compliment! Of, course, I know from experience that SD is
> very powerful for dealing with issues exhibiting dynamic behaviour and where

This is really interesting stuff. What are the four kinds of terrorism? I
definately agree that it is exceedingly hard to built a quantitative model
of such a "soft" concept. What would you say would be the main
disadvantage(s) of a quantitative model of terrorism against a qualitative
model, outside of the relative difficulty in creating the former?

> I did mention other techniques for understanding terrorism at a broad level
> and impact wheels and the military appreciation come to mind.

Can you tell those of us who do not know a little bit more about impact
wheels and military appreciation? Are these techniques quantitative at
all?

Alexander (Sasha) Lubyansky
From: "Alexander (Sasha) Lubyansky" <
driedcow@WPI.EDU>
Nancy Maville
Junior Member
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

System Dynamcis work on terrrorism

Post by Nancy Maville »

Rod,

Please visit
http://www.hps-inc.com/Story_archive.asp#oct to view "A Systems
Thinking look at... Terrorism" which includes a model built by Barry
Richmond.

Best regards,

Nancy Maville
From: Nancy Maville <nmaville@hps-inc.com>
Roderick MacDonald
Junior Member
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

System Dynamcis work on terrrorism

Post by Roderick MacDonald »

Geoff Coyle stated, “I always ask my students to justify their choice of
methodology so why does Rod think that SD would be a useful tool for
this problem? What other analytical methodologies might be just as, or
even more, useful?”
These are very good questions and I will attempt to answer the second
question first. I was referred to a paper written by John Major titled
“Advanced Techniques for Modeling Terrorism Risk” (this paper is
available for downloading on the web). This paper uses game theory
to model terrorism risk and is considered important work in its field.
Furthermore, I am aware, from newspaper reports, that the banking
community has come together and is using genetic algorithms to search
mass financial databases to identify patterns of financial transactions
that could be associated with terrorists. Others, such as Ted Gurr,
have used statistical techniques to develop models that they hope will
act as early warning systems to identify developing crisis’s throughout
the world. I am sure there are many more approaches than I have
mentioned. I believe all of these approaches are useful and that the
most useful technique would depend on the specifics of a particular
problem.

I would argue that system dynamics is a useful tool for examining the
problem of terrorism in that this problem is complex, dynamic, and full
of feedback. Moreover, I think this is an important area that deserves
study.

Just think of feedback implications current U.S. and Israeli policies. In the short-run, this could be an
effective policy in that you could reduce the number of terrorists and
thus the number of terrorists acts. However, in the long-run you could
be creating additional martyrs and adding to the pool of terrorist
recruits. Our current policies tend to react to events; our leaders are
missing the underlying causes.

The importance of looking at the whole in understanding terrorism cannot
be understated. The ability of system dynamics to link hunger, poverty,
ethnic identity, political inequities, etc. to acts of terrorism that
occur years later is a necessary step in identifying possible underlying
causes and thus policies that address fundamental solutions.



Rod MacDonald
Albany, New York
Rod@isdps.org
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