Models for Electric Deregulation

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"George Backus"
Member
Posts: 23
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Models for Electric Deregulation

Post by "George Backus" »

Rafael,


Andy Ford, Jeff Amlin, and I have been performing electric utility sector
(and other energy) analyses for over 25 years each. (Talk about being in a
rut!) Much of the recent work has actively focused on deregulation. We see
that all countries and regions to-date have repetitively made the same
serious, obvious mistakes with regard to deregulation because they did not
recognize the feedback within the system. More importantly, the rules of the
market are developed through political compromises where all parties attempt
to protect their vested interests. That necessarily results in
counterproductive rules that prevent market-based feedback mechanisms from
working as required. A simulation model can readily test proposed markets
and show the (often dramatic) positive and negative impacts of proposed
procedures and rules. To-date, none of the markets worldwide have allowed
the simulated stress testing of proposed markets to determine how they will
behavior under real, as opposed to the assumed perfect, conditions.



No one would commercialize a new aircraft design without thorough
esting -- just as we routinely perform extremum tests on our SD models.
Yet, this simple validation step is never allowed, let alone accepted, by
policy makers implementing market deregulation. As might be expected, the
simulation models, from even 8 years ago, perfectly produce "the impossible
to have anticipated" dynamics that have befallen the markets thus far --
especially California. We have see the same dynamics in The Netherlands, the
UK, Germany, Scandinavia, New Zealand, Australia , Chile, Brazil, all
regions of the US and Canada. Because humans are human everywhere, and
economic logic knows no borders, I claim these dynamics are universal and
obvious (at least to SDers). I hope you can limit the problem Spain and the
rest of the EU will replay because they refuse to test before implementing.



Some information on Andys work can be found at
http://www.wsu.edu/~forda
and on Jeffs and my our work can be found at www.energy2020.com.

George



George Backus
Policy Assessment Corporation
14602 West 62nd Place
Arvada, CO 80004
Bus: 303-467-3566
Fax: 303-467-3576
Email: George_Backus@ENERGY2020.com
"Rafael Garcia"
Newbie
Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Models for Electric Deregulation

Post by "Rafael Garcia" »

Dear colleagues



I am an assistant professor at Department of Economic Analysis and Business Administration in A Coruña University.



Currently, I am working in my doctoral thesis trying to analyse the effects of the electric sector´s deregulation on the strategic management by using simulation methods.



I would be very grateful if you could indicate me some important references, working papers, books, web sites or any other materials as well as possible models to study for the electric sector



Thanks in advanced for your cooperation.


From: "Rafael Garcia" <rgarcia@udc.es>
Khalid Saeed
Senior Member
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Models for Electric Deregulation

Post by Khalid Saeed »

Id highly recommend Andy Fords work on this subject, for which he has
received Jay Forrester award. Please check the SD bibiography as the
societys site.

Khalid
From: Khalid Saeed <saeed@WPI.EDU>
"Brian Dangerfield"
Junior Member
Posts: 8
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

Models for Electric Deregulation

Post by "Brian Dangerfield" »

The work of Erik LARSEN and Derek BUNN (London Business
School) springs to mind.

Journal of the OR Soc 1994 45(4) Also 1993 44(10)

System Dynamics Review 1997 13(4)

Book: Systems Modelling for Energy Policy 1997 Wiley, Chichester

Best

Brian.
From: "Brian Dangerfield" <
B.C.Dangerfield@salford.ac.uk>

Prof Brian Dangerfield
Professor of Systems Modelling &
Executive Editor, System Dynamics Review
Centre for OR & Applied Statistics
Faculty of Business & Informatics
Maxwell Building
University of Salford
SALFORD M5 4WT
U.K.
Tel: 44 161 295 5315
Fax: 44 161 295 2130
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