Posted by ""Leischow, Scott (NIH/NCI)"" <leischos@mail.nih.gov>
If anyone is aware of who is doing SD analyses on tobacco or smoking, please
pass along those names to me. George Richardson did some work on this last
year, but if there are others I would like to know. The NCI, and now other
partners, have created an initiative entitled ISSI - Initiative on the Study
and Implementation of Systems. An initial focus is to develop models and
methods pertaining to tobacco control because it is, by far, the leading
cause of preventable death. However, our goal is to expand to other health
issues. Note that this ISIS includes SD as a component, but SD is not the
only theoretical or analytic approach we are exploring. Thanks in advance
for any help you can provide. Scott
Scott Leischow, Ph.D.
The National Cancer Institute
Posted by ""Leischow, Scott (NIH/NCI)"" <leischos@mail.nih.gov>
posting date Tue, 2 Aug 2005 12:40:26 -0400
Tobacco and smoking dynamics
-
Leischow Scott (NIH/NCI) leischo
- Junior Member
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
-
Sajjad ahmadsajjad gmail.com
- Newbie
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
Tobacco and smoking dynamics
Posted by Sajjad <ahmadsajjad@gmail.com>
Jack Homer developed a nice SD model for tobacco use in eighties.
Transdisciplinary Tobacco Use Research Center at University of
California Irvine (UCI)
http://www.tturc.uci.edu/
is using SD for tobacco policy work. Nate Osgood was involved in
preliminary development of a SD model there. Later I worked with the
group for some time.
Here are some references to the work done at UCI. Also check the website.
Tengs TO, Osgood ND, Chen LL. The cost-effectiveness of intensive
national school-based anti-tobacco education: results from the tobacco
policy model. Preventive Med 2001;33:558– 70.
Tengs TO, Osgood ND, Lin TH. The public health impact of changes in
smoking behavior: results from the tobacco policy model. Medical Care
2001;39:1131– 41.
Tengs, T., Ahmad, S, Moore, R., and Gage, E., (2004), Federal Policy
Mandating Safer Cigarettes: A Simulation of the Anticipated Population
Health Gains or Losses, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 23
(4) 857-872.
Tengs, T., Ahmad, S, Savage, J, Moore, R., and Gage, E., (2005), The
AMA Proposal to Mandate Nicotine Reduction in Cigarettes: A Simulation
of the Population Health Impacts, Preventive Medicine 40(2) 170-180.
Ahmad S, (2005). The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising the Legal Smoking
Age in California, Medical Decision Making 25(3) 330-340.
Ahmad S (2005), Increasing excise taxes on cigarettes in California: a
dynamic simulation of health and economic impacts, Preventive Medicine
41(1) 276-283.
Ahmad S and John Billimek (2005) Estimating the Health Impacts of
Tobacco Harm Reduction: A Simulation modeling Approach, Risk Analysis
(in press: available online )
Sajjad Ahmad, PhD., P.E
University of Miami
Posted by Sajjad <ahmadsajjad@gmail.com>
posting date Thu, 4 Aug 2005 18:33:16 -0400
Jack Homer developed a nice SD model for tobacco use in eighties.
Transdisciplinary Tobacco Use Research Center at University of
California Irvine (UCI)
http://www.tturc.uci.edu/
is using SD for tobacco policy work. Nate Osgood was involved in
preliminary development of a SD model there. Later I worked with the
group for some time.
Here are some references to the work done at UCI. Also check the website.
Tengs TO, Osgood ND, Chen LL. The cost-effectiveness of intensive
national school-based anti-tobacco education: results from the tobacco
policy model. Preventive Med 2001;33:558– 70.
Tengs TO, Osgood ND, Lin TH. The public health impact of changes in
smoking behavior: results from the tobacco policy model. Medical Care
2001;39:1131– 41.
Tengs, T., Ahmad, S, Moore, R., and Gage, E., (2004), Federal Policy
Mandating Safer Cigarettes: A Simulation of the Anticipated Population
Health Gains or Losses, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 23
(4) 857-872.
Tengs, T., Ahmad, S, Savage, J, Moore, R., and Gage, E., (2005), The
AMA Proposal to Mandate Nicotine Reduction in Cigarettes: A Simulation
of the Population Health Impacts, Preventive Medicine 40(2) 170-180.
Ahmad S, (2005). The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising the Legal Smoking
Age in California, Medical Decision Making 25(3) 330-340.
Ahmad S (2005), Increasing excise taxes on cigarettes in California: a
dynamic simulation of health and economic impacts, Preventive Medicine
41(1) 276-283.
Ahmad S and John Billimek (2005) Estimating the Health Impacts of
Tobacco Harm Reduction: A Simulation modeling Approach, Risk Analysis
(in press: available online )
Sajjad Ahmad, PhD., P.E
University of Miami
Posted by Sajjad <ahmadsajjad@gmail.com>
posting date Thu, 4 Aug 2005 18:33:16 -0400
-
Nathaniel Osgood osgood cs.usask
- Newbie
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
Tobacco and smoking dynamics
Posted by ""Nathaniel Osgood"" <osgood@cs.usask.ca>
Hi Scott,
Good to hear from you. As you and I discussed at one point, there
have been a number of past papers using system dynamics modeling to tobacco
and smoking issues. To my knowledge, there have been 5 primary threads of
work:
Work by Homer and Roberts in the early 1980s. The model included
lots of soft factors and feedbacks. I can dig out the reference for you if
you are interested.
Work by Tengs and myself and (later) Tengs and Sajjad Ahmad
examining the cost and health impacts (and, specifically, the cost
effectiveness) of state (CA) and national (US) tobacco control policies.
This work was primarily a Markovian formulation with tight reliance on hard
secondary data, as the lead investigator (Tengs) had strong reservations
about incorporating factors that were hard to precisely measure (including
the many important feedbacks operating in the tobacco space) The research
group that conducted this work is no longer in existence, but I'm including
several citations below.
Work by Mendez et. al. of the University of Michigan
(dmendez@umich.edu). This work was supported at least in part by the
Substance Abuse Policy Research Program and the Robert Wood Johnson
Foundation. This work was ongoing within the past comouple of years, but I
am not sure of its current status. Citations to this are included below as
well. Prof. Mendez has published quite a lot in the tobacco area, and he
could probably point you towards the papers that have made particular use of
system dynamics methodology.
Unpublished consulting model constructed by HVM for (if I'm not
mistaken) a UK pharmaceutical company. This model incorporated lots of soft
factors but was only loosely calibrated. Contact for this work is
Joe Gitchell
4800 Mongomery Lane, Suite 1000
Bethesda, MD 20814-3433
(301) 718-8440
The work by Richardson that you mentioned.
As I have argued in my recent ISDC 2005 workshop presentation, my
work using system dynamics to investigate tobacco convinced me that
effective policy analysis would be better served by an agent-based modeling
approach than with an approach based on differential equations. There are
many reasons for this, but the central motivations were the importance to
policy effectiveness of both social networks (well documented by tobacco
sociologists), population heterogeneity, and the relatively strong amount of
data available on patterns of individual smoking behavior. (Although many
of my colleagues would probably disagree, I personally am comfortable
including ABM approaches as part of a system dynamicist's toolkit.) For the
past year, I have have been working on a (yet unfunded) agent-based model of
tobacco cost-effectiveness. While computationally expensive, this model can
quite comfortably capture aspects of population smoking dynamics that are
very difficult or awkward to capture using differential equation based
approach. Based on these preliminary results, I will be attempting to
secure funding for this work over the course of the coming year.
I know that I'm not alone in believing that this area remains ripe
for lots of good work using a system dynamics approach (interpreted
broadly). I'd be delighted to hear if you come across any more additional
work.
Sincerely,
Nate Osgood
-------------------References included below------------------
Homer and Roberts:
[Roberts, Homer et al] Roberts, E., Homer, J., Kasabian, A., and Varrell M.
A Systems View of the Smoking Problem: Perspective and Limitations of the
Role of Science in Decision-Making. Int. J. Bio-Medical Computing (13)
(1982) 69-86.
Literature References for Tengs et al:
The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising the Legal Smoking Age in California
Ahmad Med Decis Making.2005; 25: 330-340.
http://apha.confex.com/apha/133am/techp ... 113523.htm
Tengs, T., Osgood, N. and Lin, T. Public health impact of changes in
smoking behavior: results from the Tobacco Policy Model. Medical Care. 2001
Oct;39(10):1131-41.
Tengs, T., Osgood, N. and Chen, L. The Cost-Effectiveness of Intensive
National School-Based Anti-Tobacco Education: Results from the Tobacco
Policy Model. Preventive Medicine. 2001 Dec;33(6):558-70.
Osgood, N. The Tobacco Policy Model: An Introduction. Presented at the
System Dynamics Winter Camp, Austin, Texas, January 2000.
Osgood, N. Beyond Markov: A system dynamics model of national tobacco
policy. Poster presentation at the Society for Medical Decision Making
Annual Meeting, October, 1999
Grant/Literature References for Mendez et. al:
Substance Abuse Policy Research Program
The Impact of Smoking Control Policies on Future Smoking Prevalence and
Health Status: A System Dynamics Analysis, David Mendez, Ph.D.
http://www.saprp.org/grant_detail.cfm?AppID=784
www.rwjf.org/files/publications/books/1999/exh2-2.htm :
David Mendez, Ph.D. The University of Michigan The Impact of Smoking Control
Policies on Future Smoking Prevalence and Health Status: A System Dynamics
Analysis
Posted by ""Nathaniel Osgood"" <osgood@cs.usask.ca>
posting date Thu, 4 Aug 2005 11:18:10 -0600
Hi Scott,
Good to hear from you. As you and I discussed at one point, there
have been a number of past papers using system dynamics modeling to tobacco
and smoking issues. To my knowledge, there have been 5 primary threads of
work:
Work by Homer and Roberts in the early 1980s. The model included
lots of soft factors and feedbacks. I can dig out the reference for you if
you are interested.
Work by Tengs and myself and (later) Tengs and Sajjad Ahmad
examining the cost and health impacts (and, specifically, the cost
effectiveness) of state (CA) and national (US) tobacco control policies.
This work was primarily a Markovian formulation with tight reliance on hard
secondary data, as the lead investigator (Tengs) had strong reservations
about incorporating factors that were hard to precisely measure (including
the many important feedbacks operating in the tobacco space) The research
group that conducted this work is no longer in existence, but I'm including
several citations below.
Work by Mendez et. al. of the University of Michigan
(dmendez@umich.edu). This work was supported at least in part by the
Substance Abuse Policy Research Program and the Robert Wood Johnson
Foundation. This work was ongoing within the past comouple of years, but I
am not sure of its current status. Citations to this are included below as
well. Prof. Mendez has published quite a lot in the tobacco area, and he
could probably point you towards the papers that have made particular use of
system dynamics methodology.
Unpublished consulting model constructed by HVM for (if I'm not
mistaken) a UK pharmaceutical company. This model incorporated lots of soft
factors but was only loosely calibrated. Contact for this work is
Joe Gitchell
4800 Mongomery Lane, Suite 1000
Bethesda, MD 20814-3433
(301) 718-8440
The work by Richardson that you mentioned.
As I have argued in my recent ISDC 2005 workshop presentation, my
work using system dynamics to investigate tobacco convinced me that
effective policy analysis would be better served by an agent-based modeling
approach than with an approach based on differential equations. There are
many reasons for this, but the central motivations were the importance to
policy effectiveness of both social networks (well documented by tobacco
sociologists), population heterogeneity, and the relatively strong amount of
data available on patterns of individual smoking behavior. (Although many
of my colleagues would probably disagree, I personally am comfortable
including ABM approaches as part of a system dynamicist's toolkit.) For the
past year, I have have been working on a (yet unfunded) agent-based model of
tobacco cost-effectiveness. While computationally expensive, this model can
quite comfortably capture aspects of population smoking dynamics that are
very difficult or awkward to capture using differential equation based
approach. Based on these preliminary results, I will be attempting to
secure funding for this work over the course of the coming year.
I know that I'm not alone in believing that this area remains ripe
for lots of good work using a system dynamics approach (interpreted
broadly). I'd be delighted to hear if you come across any more additional
work.
Sincerely,
Nate Osgood
-------------------References included below------------------
Homer and Roberts:
[Roberts, Homer et al] Roberts, E., Homer, J., Kasabian, A., and Varrell M.
A Systems View of the Smoking Problem: Perspective and Limitations of the
Role of Science in Decision-Making. Int. J. Bio-Medical Computing (13)
(1982) 69-86.
Literature References for Tengs et al:
The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising the Legal Smoking Age in California
Ahmad Med Decis Making.2005; 25: 330-340.
http://apha.confex.com/apha/133am/techp ... 113523.htm
Tengs, T., Osgood, N. and Lin, T. Public health impact of changes in
smoking behavior: results from the Tobacco Policy Model. Medical Care. 2001
Oct;39(10):1131-41.
Tengs, T., Osgood, N. and Chen, L. The Cost-Effectiveness of Intensive
National School-Based Anti-Tobacco Education: Results from the Tobacco
Policy Model. Preventive Medicine. 2001 Dec;33(6):558-70.
Osgood, N. The Tobacco Policy Model: An Introduction. Presented at the
System Dynamics Winter Camp, Austin, Texas, January 2000.
Osgood, N. Beyond Markov: A system dynamics model of national tobacco
policy. Poster presentation at the Society for Medical Decision Making
Annual Meeting, October, 1999
Grant/Literature References for Mendez et. al:
Substance Abuse Policy Research Program
The Impact of Smoking Control Policies on Future Smoking Prevalence and
Health Status: A System Dynamics Analysis, David Mendez, Ph.D.
http://www.saprp.org/grant_detail.cfm?AppID=784
www.rwjf.org/files/publications/books/1999/exh2-2.htm :
David Mendez, Ph.D. The University of Michigan The Impact of Smoking Control
Policies on Future Smoking Prevalence and Health Status: A System Dynamics
Analysis
Posted by ""Nathaniel Osgood"" <osgood@cs.usask.ca>
posting date Thu, 4 Aug 2005 11:18:10 -0600
-
Richard Stevenson richard cognit
- Junior Member
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
Tobacco and smoking dynamics
Posted by Richard Stevenson <richard@cognitus.co.uk>
Not tobacco - but drinking. There are many similarities between the
social, economic and health dynamics of alcohol and tobacco. SD has
much to contribute to the construction of public policy in both cases.
A couple of years ago, my company Cognitus Ltd supported an initiative
by the Irish Drinks Industry to understand the social, economic and
health causes and consequences of the boom in alcohol consumption in
Ireland since the late 1980's. Between 1985 and 2000 the per capita
consumption of alcohol doubled in Ireland, fuelled (inter alia) by a
rise in binge drinking, a shift from beer to other products - and a
huge increase in drinking by young women.
Our work was conducted at two levels.
First, at the macro level, we constructed a high level SD model to
understand the causes of the growth in drinking by linking the actions
and behaviour of various groups in society that contribute to alcohol
consumption and control. These include consumers, the drinks industry
itself, regulators, health authorities, government and the exchequer.
Alcohol control requires co-ordinated behaviour across all these groups
and the model was constructed as a device to support inter-agency
communication - not as a solution tool.
Second, at a more micro level, we constructed an SD model to support
understanding of the dynamic behaviour of drinkers themselves, moving
through different life stages where drinking is driven by different
social, economic and health pressures. This model was originally
conceived as a high level device to better understand population
drinking dynamics and the health implications. It has subsequently
been developed as a tool to support responsible marketing strategies
for drinks companies.
I would be happy to discuss how such analysis might be transferred to
tobacco and smoking.
Richard Stevenson
Cognitus Ltd
High Mill Farm
Markington
Harrogate
HG3 3NR
UK
Ph +44 (0)1765 676360
Mob +44 (0)7876 504434
www.cognitus.co.uk
Posted by Richard Stevenson <richard@cognitus.co.uk>
posting date Thu, 4 Aug 2005 19:07:20 +0100
Not tobacco - but drinking. There are many similarities between the
social, economic and health dynamics of alcohol and tobacco. SD has
much to contribute to the construction of public policy in both cases.
A couple of years ago, my company Cognitus Ltd supported an initiative
by the Irish Drinks Industry to understand the social, economic and
health causes and consequences of the boom in alcohol consumption in
Ireland since the late 1980's. Between 1985 and 2000 the per capita
consumption of alcohol doubled in Ireland, fuelled (inter alia) by a
rise in binge drinking, a shift from beer to other products - and a
huge increase in drinking by young women.
Our work was conducted at two levels.
First, at the macro level, we constructed a high level SD model to
understand the causes of the growth in drinking by linking the actions
and behaviour of various groups in society that contribute to alcohol
consumption and control. These include consumers, the drinks industry
itself, regulators, health authorities, government and the exchequer.
Alcohol control requires co-ordinated behaviour across all these groups
and the model was constructed as a device to support inter-agency
communication - not as a solution tool.
Second, at a more micro level, we constructed an SD model to support
understanding of the dynamic behaviour of drinkers themselves, moving
through different life stages where drinking is driven by different
social, economic and health pressures. This model was originally
conceived as a high level device to better understand population
drinking dynamics and the health implications. It has subsequently
been developed as a tool to support responsible marketing strategies
for drinks companies.
I would be happy to discuss how such analysis might be transferred to
tobacco and smoking.
Richard Stevenson
Cognitus Ltd
High Mill Farm
Markington
Harrogate
HG3 3NR
UK
Ph +44 (0)1765 676360
Mob +44 (0)7876 504434
www.cognitus.co.uk
Posted by Richard Stevenson <richard@cognitus.co.uk>
posting date Thu, 4 Aug 2005 19:07:20 +0100