QUERY Synchronising Forecast and Production

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Francisco Perez francisco77pp ya
Junior Member
Posts: 18
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY Synchronising Forecast and Production

Post by Francisco Perez francisco77pp ya »

Posted by Francisco Perez <francisco77pp@yahoo.com>
Hi All, Happy new year to al of you.

I've got a quesiton for you all. I've been round and round a
problem for several days.

I have a supply chain consisting of a producer and a distribution
system. The whole system is ruled by a closed-loop Sales and
Operations Planning Process (a linked production, distribution and
demand planning). I've been wodering how you SDists would model
the demand forecast process and its relationship with production
planning. A particular issue is how to do the timing between production
and forecast knowing that there is a constant lead time and a certain
forecast time window / horizon. That is, if forecast horizon is 5 days,
I know that forecast demand corresponding five days from now should
be on
production starts already.

I would like to hear as many Ideas as possible. I have the model running
but I am sure that there must be something better out there. The whole
model is quite large and peharps I am missing something or am already
overwhelmed by it.

By the way, I've already looked into Sterman's Book, I've tried that
already (as to supply chain and manufacrturing start ups).

Thanks, all comments are welcome.
Best regards
Francisco
Posted by Francisco Perez <francisco77pp@yahoo.com>
posting date Mon, 9 Jan 2006 10:37:54 -0800 (PST)
Bob Cavana Bob.Cavana vuw.ac.nz
Junior Member
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY Synchronising Forecast and Production

Post by Bob Cavana Bob.Cavana vuw.ac.nz »

Posted by ""Bob Cavana"" <Bob.Cavana@vuw.ac.nz>
hello Francisco,

you might like to look at Case 4 'Mainland Beer distribution
model' in K.E.Maani and RY Cavana (2000. Systems thinking and
modelling: understanding change and uncertainty. Pearson
Education New Zealand Ltd (Prentice Hall), Auckland. (pp181-208).

this case is based on the famous beer game developed at MIT. the
supply chain consists of a beer producer (brewery sector) and
retail distributor (retail sector). the 'ithink' equations for
the model are provided on pp186-189 in the case and the 'ithink'
model is on the CD-rom with the book. the model is based on Rolf
Clark's model in his 1988 book 'System dynamics and modeling'
[Operations Research Society of America, Arlington].

all the best,
Bob Cavana
Posted by ""Bob Cavana"" <Bob.Cavana@vuw.ac.nz>
posting date Wed, 11 Jan 2006 09:56:38 +1300
John Gunkler jgunkler sprintmail
Member
Posts: 30
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY Synchronising Forecast and Production

Post by John Gunkler jgunkler sprintmail »

Posted by ""John Gunkler"" <jgunkler@sprintmail.com>
You might also want to find a copy of Dennis Meadows' book, ""Dynamics of Commodity Production Cycles."" Even though his model has been extended by Sterman (in ""Business Dynamics""), I found Meadows' original work more helpful as a starting point for insights into what is happening.


John
Posted by ""John Gunkler"" <jgunkler@sprintmail.com>
posting date Wed, 11 Jan 2006 11:03:58 -0600
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