QUERY Fraction of Projects Qualitative

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""Michael Schwandt""
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Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY Fraction of Projects Qualitative

Post by ""Michael Schwandt"" »

Posted by ""Michael Schwandt"" <schwandt@charter.net> At the International System Dynamics Conference in Boston in 2005, I recall a presenter making the comment that 75 percent of system dynamics projects stop with the creation and use of qualitative models, leaving 25 percent of the projects to be quantified.

Unfortunately, I did not note who made the comment or what support was provided for the statement. Can any list serve members shed light on this estimate?

If nothing else, how does the percentage compare to your experiences as system dynamics modelers?

I appreciate any help that is provided.

Michael Schwandt

Virginia Tech
Posted by ""Michael Schwandt"" <schwandt@charter.net> posting date Thu, 30 Nov 2006 00:23:25 -0500 _______________________________________________
Roy Greenhalgh
Junior Member
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY Fraction of Projects Qualitative

Post by Roy Greenhalgh »

Posted by Roy Greenhalgh <rgreenh@attglobal.net> Michael

I create far more qual than quant. Usually the qual is a representation of ideas with never the intention of getting numeric data to go to simulation stage. Qual SD maps are excellent sources for discussions.

Roy Greenhalgh
Bristol
UK
Posted by Roy Greenhalgh <rgreenh@attglobal.net> posting date Thu, 30 Nov 2006 11:30:41 +0000 _______________________________________________
""Thompson, James. P (Jim) S208"
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Posts: 1
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QUERY Fraction of Projects Qualitative

Post by ""Thompson, James. P (Jim) S208" »

Posted by ""Thompson, James. P (Jim) S208"" <Jim.Thompson@CIGNA.COM> Michael Schwandt asks for evidence that ""75 percent of system dynamics projects stop with the creation and use of qualitative models, leaving
25 percent of the projects to be quantified.""

For many practitioners, system dynamics is a methodology that applies formal computer simulations of complex feedback systems to help design more effective policies and organizations. For those practitioners, a computer simulation model defines a system dynamics engagement.

As an in-house practitioner, my colleagues often bring me problems with relatively simple feedback structures. Conversation is usually all that is needed to identify causes and resolve those problems. Is that a system dynamics project? In my view, it is not.

For all but the simplest issues, we build a computer model that simulates the feedback structure that we believe is generating the problem's pattern(s) of behavior. I can't recall an instance when the model-building process didn't generate useful insight, sufficient to warrant the investment in the model.

Jim Thompson
Director, Economic Research
CIGNA HealthCare
900 Cottage Grove Rd. S208
Hartford, CT 06152
Posted by ""Thompson, James. P (Jim) S208"" <Jim.Thompson@CIGNA.COM> posting date Thu, 30 Nov 2006 13:49:52 -0500 _______________________________________________
""Jim Hines""
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Posts: 1
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY Fraction of Projects Qualitative

Post by ""Jim Hines"" »

Posted by ""Jim Hines"" <Jim@ventanasystems.com> My friend Jim Thompson writes that he doesn't count conversations about structure and dynamics as 'system dynamics projects'.

I think Jim is talking about what constitutes a project, rather than what constitutes system dynamics. Jim would probably agree that these conversations involve **doing** system dynamics -- that is, figuring out how structure generates behavior.

Maybe M. Schwant's presenter was referring to the number of **issues** handled informally, vs. formally. If so, I can report that I handle lots more issues using informal techniques (up to causal loop diagramming), than using simulation modeling -- including the most important issues, like those in my marriage. It's a question of budgets. No one has the time- or money-budget to create a computer simulation model for most of the issues
they face.

Jim Hines
Posted by ""Jim Hines"" <Jim@ventanasystems.com> posting date Fri, 1 Dec 2006 11:49:48 -0500 _______________________________________________
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