QUERY High-Tech Company Dynamics

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""Sousa, Jorge Alberto""
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QUERY High-Tech Company Dynamics

Post by ""Sousa, Jorge Alberto"" »

Posted by ""Sousa, Jorge Alberto"" <jasousa@indra.pt> Hi everyone

I'm studying system dynamics applied to sustainable development in Hi Tec companies.

Does anyone knows one example of a model that addresses sustainable development?

Thanks
Jorge
Posted by ""Sousa, Jorge Alberto"" <jasousa@indra.pt> posting date Sat, 2 Dec 2006 17:43:13 +0100 _______________________________________________
Markus Schwaninger
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QUERY High-Tech Company Dynamics

Post by Markus Schwaninger »

Posted by Markus Schwaninger <markus.schwaninger@unisg.ch> You will find the following book valuable:

Ulli-Beer, Silvia (2006) Citizens' Choice and Public Policy. A System
Dynamics Model for Recycling Management at the Local Level, Shaker.
Available from Amazon.de

Sincerely,

M. Schwaninger.
Posted by Markus Schwaninger <markus.schwaninger@unisg.ch> posting date Mon, 4 Dec 2006 08:49:54 +0100 _______________________________________________
mbean@forio.com
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Post by mbean@forio.com »

Posted by mbean@forio.com
Hi Jorge,

By sustainable development, do you mean sustainable growth? If so, I think B&B Enterprises is a good example. B&B stands for Boom and Bust. B&B Enterprises was developed by John Sterman, Mark Paich, Ken Simons, and Eric Beinhocker.

You can try the online version of that sim here:
http://www.forio.com/resources/b-b-enterprises

Paul A. Langley, Mark Paich , and John D. Sterman wrote a paper about B&B titled, ""Explaining Capacity Overshoot and Price War: Misperceptions of Feedback in Competitive Growth Markets"" that can be downloaded here:
http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/B&B_Rev.pdf

Best Regards, Michael
---------
Michael Bean
Forio Simulations
Posted by mbean@forio.com
posting date Sun, 3 Dec 2006 05:36:39 -0800 _______________________________________________
swarrte@comcast.net
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QUERY High-Tech Company Dynamics

Post by swarrte@comcast.net »

Posted by swarrte@comcast.net (Tom Swarr) How do you define sustainable development? There are models that link economic development to global warming and I have seen other models that look at innovation. I have also seen some qualitative models- causal loop diagrams- for environmentally preferred or clean manufacturing. But I can't remember seeing any formal models that looked at 'sustainable development.' Sounds like a very interesting problem!


Posted by swarrte@comcast.net (Tom Swarr) posting date Mon, 04 Dec 2006 00:44:09 +0000 _______________________________________________
Michael Bean
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QUERY High-Tech Company Dynamics

Post by Michael Bean »

Posted by Michael Bean <mbean@forio.com> Hi Mary,

Obviously infinite growth isn't possible, but in the context of high-tech start-up company dynamics, sustainable growth would mean avoiding overshoot and collapse behavior that can occur from growth and under-investment. That is, if a company grows too quickly without sufficient investment in people, marketing, capacity, etc., sales can grow rapidly for a time and then rapidly decline.

This is the behavior modeled in several classic system dynamics models, starting with Forrester's market growth dynamics and also described in the People Express Management Flight Simulator, Boom & Bust Enterprises, and in the ""Growth and Under-Investment"" archetype in Senge's Fifth Discipline to name a few.

Best regards, Michael

Michael Bean
Forio Business Simulations
Posted by Michael Bean <mbean@forio.com> posting date Mon, 04 Dec 2006 10:37:52 -0800 _______________________________________________
""M. Lehmann""
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QUERY High-Tech Company Dynamics

Post by ""M. Lehmann"" »

Posted by ""M. Lehmann"" <mlehmann1@AUSTIN.RR.COM> Sustainable development cannot mean sustainable growth because growth isn't sustainable. Of course these words can mean different things to different people, and settling on definitions would help.

Mary Lehmann
Keep The Land Foundation
Posted by ""M. Lehmann"" <mlehmann1@AUSTIN.RR.COM> posting date Mon, 4 Dec 2006 11:42:06 -0600 _______________________________________________
""M. Lehmann""
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QUERY High-Tech Company Dynamics

Post by ""M. Lehmann"" »

Posted by ""M. Lehmann"" <mlehmann1@austin.rr.com> As I said, I have no training in system dynamics, but it seems to me if the output equals the input it's sustainable, but then is it growth? If a caterpillar in the cocoon changes into a butterfly, is it growth? Maybe ""formation"" can be hauled into use. i.e. startups want sustainable formation.

ML
Posted by ""M. Lehmann"" <mlehmann1@austin.rr.com>
posting date Tue, 5 Dec 2006 18:23:37 -0600
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""David Corben""
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QUERY High-Tech Company Dynamics

Post by ""David Corben"" »

Posted by ""David Corben"" <david@dsc-consulting.co.uk> I am not sure that it is possible to model sustainability in the long term.
In the medium term it is possible to make assumptions about how existing technologies can be incrementally developed. But it is not possible to predict what disruptive technologies may emerge which will not only change model parameters but will also change system structure.

When people say they are modelling sustainability what they are actually modelling is the sustainability of current technology and inevitably if your do this you get an unduly pessimistic view of the future. Malthus is the first of many examples of this.

At any point in the last 300 years if you built a model of sustainability, based upon the information available at the time that looked say 50 - 100 years ahead, then it would inevitably predict that economic and industrial growth was unsustainable in the long term. It is a good thing that system dynamics never existed at the start of the industrial revolution otherwise it would never have happened and we would all still be farm labourers!

D Corben
Posted by ""David Corben"" <david@dsc-consulting.co.uk> posting date Tue, 5 Dec 2006 18:19:28 -0000 _______________________________________________
Bill Harris
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QUERY High-Tech Company Dynamics

Post by Bill Harris »

Posted by Bill Harris <bill_harris@facilitatedsystems.com>
I don't have any models to address your question, but I have done a bit of related philosophizing with references at http://www.facilitatedsystems.com/weblo ... -your.html;
check out its links, too, or search for ""growth"" on my blog.

Bill
-- Bill Harris Facilitated Systems Everett, WA 98208 USA Posted by Bill Harris <bill_harris@facilitatedsystems.com>
posting date Tue, 05 Dec 2006 12:05:15 -0800 _______________________________________________
Bill Braun
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QUERY High-Tech Company Dynamics

Post by Bill Braun »

Posted by Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.com>
>From this and prior conversations I suspect that the reference point
is identifying policies that favor, or permit, the balance of stocks that are depleted through economic activity with stocks that are increased, with special attention given to stocks that once depleted, cannot be reconstituted (i.e., natural resources) or whose reconstitution is arduously long and expensive. As such, the goal is not a model that models sustainability.

As an example, in the last several weeks the local NPR station has aired a series on local efforts by developers and local communities to advance ""green"" buildings. This is a emerging technology that is a response to the desire to balance the depletion of [natural] stocks with economic value added stocks.

If I am understanding the argument (and I may not) the focal point is not a model that illustrates sustainability, but a philosophy of sustainability from which emerges the exploration of policies that balance resource stocks over long periods of time. As such, I would not say (as a matter of opinion) that the industrial revolution was an all or nothing proposition insofar as SD is concerned. I would like to think that SD would have shaped policies that are now considered to be in the ""planned growth"" school of thinking rather than the ""wild, out of control growth"" that leads to a thirst for capital so insatiable that the ethics of capitalism are difficult to see through the haze.

I recommend Kim Warren's book ""The Critical Path"" as a solid example of resource based thinking in the context of SD. While his reference point is the firm, it has broad applications in social policy.

Bill Braun
Posted by Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.com> posting date Wed, 06 Dec 2006 17:57:53 -0500 _______________________________________________
eorge Richardson
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Post by eorge Richardson »

Posted by George Richardson <gpr@albany.edu>
> I am not sure that it is possible to model sustainability in the long term.

""If it's possible to think about it, then it's possible to model it."" The worry David has is that the modeling would not have much predictive value, just as our thoughts about distant futures don't have much predictive value.

But the modeling of future scenarios may help to reveal insights anyway.
And if we are thinking about the future in order to help us pick healthy policies for the present, then modeling may be a necessary cognitive aid to thinking well, even if we can't predict.

> modelling is the sustainability of current technology and inevitably
> if your do this you get an unduly pessimistic view of the future.
> Malthus is the first of many examples of this.

Malthus was right in many crucial respects. His structural insights were clear and right on target. I think he gets a bad rap because most people have not read what HE wrote but just read what others say what they think he wrote. Paying attention to Malthus's structural insights all through the industrial revolution would have helped millions of poor people, but that didn't happen.

> At any point in the last 300 years if you built a model of
> sustainability, based upon the information available at the time that
> looked say 50 - 100 years ahead, then it would inevitably predict
> that economic and industrial growth was unsustainable in the long
> term. It is a good thing that system

An interesting thought. But the focus here is still on prediction rather than understanding. If we seriously interpreted, for example, Limits to Growth as prediction then I suppose we'd all be farming right now if we could, trying to set ourselves up for the coming scarcity-induced decline. I think we use World Dynamics and Limits to Growth to give us insights about the ways we should be thinking about current policy, rather than as prediction. All that is to say that industrial revolution SDers would have been properly ignored if they'd tried to make predictions from their 19th century models, but we would have loved to hear their insights.

..George Richardson
Posted by George Richardson <gpr@albany.edu> posting date Wed, 6 Dec 2006 13:49:55 -0500 _______________________________________________
Thompson, James. P (Jim) S2
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Post by Thompson, James. P (Jim) S2 »

Posted by Thompson, James. P (Jim) S208 <Jim.Thompson@CIGNA.COM>
David Corben wrote, ""At any point in the last 300 years if you built a model of sustainability, based upon the information available at the time that looked say 50 - 100 years ahead, then it would inevitably predict that economic and industrial growth was unsustainable in the long term. It is a good thing that system dynamics never existed at the start of the industrial revolution otherwise it would never have happened and we would all still be farm labourers!""

His observation seems to assume that SD would have been very poorly practiced and quite influential in setting policy for the world in the 18th century. Inappropriate use of SD or any other policy assessment methodology is likely to lead to bad decisions.

Jay Forrester, for an example of one who advocates appropriate policy assessment, noted that there is no news from the future and that prediction is a very risky business to be practiced with care. As I read his most prominent SD works -- Industrial Dynamics, Urban Dynamics, and World Dynamics -- I can't find any statements of how a firm, city or planet will be in the future, only assessments of policies that are likely to cause problems and of policies that are likely to be more robust, given what we know at the time.

As practitioners and researchers who employ SD for thinking about managing change have demonstrated in hundreds of published experiences, it is possible to develop policies that are robust under wide-ranging conditions, given what is knowable. No one has found a way to violate laws of physics such as entropy so, at least for now, the best we can do is understand the system dynamics and take informed decisions.

In my imagination, I can conjure how SD practiced in 1706 might have led to better managed companies, cities designed to accommodate changing needs of residents and visitors, and a world less inclined to pickle in its own waste. But since we can't change the past, I practice SD to improve our prospects, given what we know now.

Jim Thompson
Clinical Insights Economic & Operations Research Cigna HealthCare 900 Cottage Grove Road, A142 Hartford, CT 06152
Posted by Thompson, James. P (Jim) S208 <Jim.Thompson@CIGNA.COM>
posting date Wed, 6 Dec 2006 16:41:54 -0500 _______________________________________________
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