QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies

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""Mitchel Kling, M.D.""
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QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies

Post by ""Mitchel Kling, M.D."" »

Posted by ""Mitchel Kling, M.D."" <klingm@mail.nih.gov> I have been following this thread, and appreciate all of the interest and input that has been generated. I think Prof. Forrester's remarks, as expected, are entirely on target with regard to SD's relative lack of
penetration into government policymaking. Government, at best, can only
do what the society it serves ""wants"" it to do, which in turn is dependent on the voices of its constituents, however these are determined in a given political system. A Federal system like ours in the US is necessarily more complex and diverse than one might find at a local level, such as a town or city. I agree that it would be extremely useful to see books written to convey to the public how SD thinking and modeling can produce results that are counterintuitive, and to relate some of the many ""success stories""
resulting from implementation of the output of SD models. In beginning to read the work of Prof. Forrester and others on the impact of SD principles in business and urban planning, I was struck by the apparent lack of such books to date.

I hope that the comments by Prof. Forrester and others will stimulate more interest in producing such works. While I don't feel I have the expertise to undertake such a task at this time, I would be happy to contribute and/ or collaborate in any way I can. As an alumnus of MIT myself, albeit in life sciences (Course VII-B, 1976), as well as a practicing psychiatrist, I can appreciate the way in which mathematical modeling can bring rigor to framing and solving a problem in a way that can directly contrast with intuition, and I often use mathematical and systems analogies in my work with patients to help them better understand their tendencies to repeat and re- create maladaptive behavioral patterns. These kinds of analogs also help patients understand how the medications I prescribe can help their symptoms of anxiety and depression.

In my initial reply to Lou Macovsky's query, I was thinking more about the potential use of SD principles and modeling in government operations, rather than policy per se. Given the examples and prior experience with business and urban planning, it seems to me that there is something to be gained by asking whether government executives can apply SD methods to improve the way in which their agencies or offices function. I would be interested in the input of the SD community: is this issue separable from the larger issue of SD modeling of public policy? As I think about it, it occurs to me that there may not be much value, and in fact there may be great detriment, to a governmental system's more efficiently carrying out policies that are counterproductive to start with!

As a government employee, I feel I would be remiss if I didn't add the requisite postscript that ""the above views are my own, and do not reflect those of the NIMH, NIH, DHHS, or other branch of the Federal government""....

- Mitch
----------------------
Mitchel A. Kling, M.D.
Staff Clinician
Mood and Anxiety Disorders Program
Intramural Research Programs
National Institute of Mental Health
NIH 10/2D-46, MSC 1284
10 Center Drive
Bethesda, MD 20892-1284
Posted by ""Mitchel Kling, M.D."" <klingm@mail.nih.gov> posting date Thu, 4 Jan 2007 09:59:09 -0500 _______________________________________________
""Pamela Paquin""
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QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies

Post by ""Pamela Paquin"" »

Posted by ""Pamela Paquin"" <pamelapaquin@gmail.com>
>So what puzzles me is why other great ideas do not have to wait so long
>for widespread uptake?
Good question Kim...

This is my reflection...

IF there is one thing about SD that I run into again and again in my work it is keeping it simple and having obvious examples in multiple places directly relevant to daily life. It is hard to ignore something in your face.
Also...seeing the positive results we create through SD and not just the negative ones...that give people heart it seems.

I just don't see what good something is if most people can't understand it....especially if we want them to....

It seems roadtesting any efforts we make at communication and examples on 8 year olds is the way to go! If they don't understand or lose interest (honest little buggers they are) then chances are it is only socialization skills keeping the adults nodding at us.

Thanks Louis for starting this conversation.

Happy New Year from Denmark,

Pamela
pamelapaquin@gmail.com
SoL ESG
Copenhagen, Denmark
Posted by ""Pamela Paquin"" <pamelapaquin@gmail.com> posting date Thu, 4 Jan 2007 13:03:13 +0100 _______________________________________________
""Radzicki, Michael J""
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QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies

Post by ""Radzicki, Michael J"" »

Posted by ""Radzicki, Michael J"" <mjradz@WPI.EDU> Dear Colleagues:

I addressed some of the issues related to the growth of the field, and its influence on policy makers, in my presidential address in Nijmegen. Rather than rehashing everything here, I'll simply ask that you point your browsers to the Power Point slides from the presentation:

http://www.systemdynamics.org/newslette ... L10-06.htm

I think that Jay Forrester (and Alfred Marshall) have got it just right.

Cheers.

Mike Radzicki
Past President - System Dynamics Society Posted by ""Radzicki, Michael J"" <mjradz@WPI.EDU> posting date Thu, 4 Jan 2007 14:39:35 -0500 _______________________________________________
""Jack Ring""
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QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies

Post by ""Jack Ring"" »

Posted by ""Jack Ring"" <jring@amug.org>
While reading John Gunkler's interesting view I kept getting the image of the reliability analyst or performance analyst on a large project who sits in the corner, finally gets enough information to construct his/her model and simulation scenarios then, by the time results are available finds the project is already through system test and deployed.

An alternative scenario would have an SD-capable person on staff to each legislator. Also, they will belong to a Community of Purposeful Practice.
This community would be the linkage to public interest groups also 'speaking' SD.

Also, it would be useful if the Congressional Research Service (who use all sorts of tools) produced SD diagrams of the implications of speeches made each day and of new bills and amendments thereto. Bills have loopholes.
Amendments are the main carriers of Unintended Consequences.

cheers,
Jack Ring
Posted by ""Jack Ring"" <jring@amug.org>
posting date Thu, 4 Jan 2007 07:28:34 -0700 _______________________________________________
""Michael Schwandt""
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QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies

Post by ""Michael Schwandt"" »

Posted by ""Michael Schwandt"" <schwandt@charter.net> In addition to the topics that Dr. Forrester mentions as popular book topics, healthcare should be considered. Members of the Health Policy Special Interest Group of the System Dynamics Society are pursuing research that could lead to such a publication.

Michael Schwandt
Virginia Tech
Posted by ""Michael Schwandt"" <schwandt@charter.net> posting date Thu, 4 Jan 2007 23:06:11 -0500 _______________________________________________
""Dan Proctor""
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QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies

Post by ""Dan Proctor"" »

Posted by ""Dan Proctor"" <jproctor@gis.net> This is in reply to posts re disseminating system dynamics in gov't, education, and the general public.

I am organizing a test of the following hypothesis in my ""civic backyard""
and encourage others to design and organize similar (or different) tests, and let's see how much water the hypothesis holds. Suggestions welcome.

The hypothesis: If high school students versed in system dynamics use these skills through the school's Community Service Program to facilitate discussion by local civic organizations, then community support for the teaching of system dynamics will increase; the number of students learning system dynamics will increase along with the amount of time and interest they devote to the subject; their skills at facilitating discussion and teaching system dynamics to adult community leaders will increase; community support for teaching system dynamics in the schools will further increase, etc.

I have a WORD document with the above cast in causal-loop form and will gladly send it.

I. Assorted ""givens"":

1. The teaching of system dynamics probably won't thrive in the schools without community support.

2. System dynamics familiarity among community leaders/activists needs to spread at a rapid rate (assuming such familiarity is probably a pre-requisite to ecological and economic sustainability).

3. Small-town governments in New England have a plethora of official volunteer boards, commissions, and committees. For example, Concord and Sudbury in Mass. each have about 40. Many of these bodies are common to most towns. Thus system dynamics diagrams and simulations developed for one Board of Selectmen, school committee, conservation commission, or planning board could be adapted for use by counterparts in other towns. Particularly useful models with appropriate discussion and information could be posted on the websites of state-wide associations of bodies such as school committees and conservation commissions. It should also be noted that state legislators are typically drawn from Boards of Selectmen and school committees.

4. These town entities are of an ideal size for holding system dynamics ""workshops""-they probably average fewer than 10 members.

5. Sierra Club would be a logical catalyst to persuade pertinent parties to try the process outlined below, and, in cooperation with Creative Learning Exchange, to assist the parties in the process (For a variety of reasons I chose Sierra Club as the key organization to get this ball rolling, but any civic organization you happen to belong to might serve for testing the hypothesis).
For example, one member of the local School Committee is also a Sierra Club member. She sees population growth as the top environmental issue.
Presumably she would be intrigued that so many SD models, including of global warming and of schools, contain a population sector. From that starting point she might soon see how an SD model of the school system could be of great value to school committee members and administrators, and that having a student facilitate informal, free introductory diagramming workshops would be an excellent way of experimenting with the idea. The school district might eventually employ a consultant to pick up where the student leaves off and develop an extensive model that could not only be used in managing the school but also in further teaching students (and the town's Financial Committee) about system dynamics.
The school district might recoup its model-development costs by licensing its model to other districts, which could hire system dynamicists to adapt the model to their particulars.
This general process could be repeated with other town boards, such as conservation commissions, planning boards, housing authorities, etc.

6. Sierra Club could also facilitate communication among counterpart boards of different towns, inasmuch as many of the members of these bodies are also Sierra Club members. Sierra Club could also facilitate the spread of this process to other states, especially California, where Club membership is most concentrated and active; and to cities and towns where system dynamics is already taught in schools and colleges.

II. Steps in the process (once it has been ""set up"" in a town)

1. A town committee or other public-service organization wishing to engage a student for one or more diagramming sessions places a request with the high school or college's Community Service Coordinator (CSC).

2. The CSC puts one or two eligible students and a ""contact teacher"" in touch with the committee/organization.

3. After settling on a date, topic, and other details, the student e-mails or otherwise sends 2 or 3 pages of intro PDF files and instructions to the committee members.

4. The contact teacher or student may examine the Creative Learning Exchange website (www.clexchange.org) for diagrams, models, and other information pertinent to the topic (over time a stock of useful models could be accumulated).

5. If this is the student's first time to conduct such a session, a teacher or other adult with system-diagramming experience accompanies him/her to the workshop. Parents are also encouraged to attend.

6. Each committee member is expected to have pen and paper to copy any drawings made by the student, as well as to keep notes during the session.

7. The student should strive to be more teacher than consultant. That is, to explain all diagram-elements used, and why. In the latter half of the workshop the student should ask committee members to come up singly and draw in any aspects of the system which they think it needs. The student should at this point become more of a coach, posing questions about the diagram as it stands, asking for more details, for example about initial numeric values of stocks, about time units, etc. but having the adults make the changes & additions to the diagrams.

8. The student should end the session before participants tire. ""Leave 'em begging for more."" The student's Community Service form is filled out and signed by committee chair.

9. The student provides a handout to each participant with pertinent resource information on system dynamics and if possible specific to the topic being treated.

After the workshop:

10. Each participant is encouraged to download Vensim PLE and enter the diagrams which he/she copied at the workshop. They are encouraged to then practice adding additional diagram elements and/or building new diagrams, and to write up questions, insights, need for further information, etc. for their next meeting.

11. Participants are also encouraged to develop diagrams pertaining to their work or other interests. A sub-hypothesis to be explored here is that participating in a civic body that uses system dynamics can lead to increasing one's professional skills.

12. Participants are asked to send evaluations of the workshop to the contact teacher or other organizers. Evaluation and other follow-up forms should be provided. The organizer and participants will decide, based on these follow-up forms, whether a second workshop would be valuable, and if so, plan its details.

13. If the committee wishes to pursue model development beyond the capability of the students and contact teachers, the contact teacher can provide a list of system dynamics consultants.
= = =
Dan Proctor
Concord, MA
Posted by ""Dan Proctor"" <jproctor@gis.net> posting date Thu, 4 Jan 2007 14:55:27 -0500 _______________________________________________
Steven Roderick
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QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies

Post by Steven Roderick »

Posted by Steven Roderick <sroderic@mac.com> ""So what puzzles me is why other great ideas do not have to wait so long for widespread uptake?""

To Kim's wonderful observations I might add the following. It is an overused analogy, but a pump must be primed if one expects an instantaneous flow of water from it. It seems that change will come as a result of work on all fronts. Priming is the work of educators. A public that knows of systems is a public that can create action around systems. The actual work of moving the pump handle will have to come from those who are active in the field.
Both Kima and Jay are absolutely right when they say that publishing for lay person, on topics of immediate relevency, is necessary. Combined with a knowledgeable (primed) public, perhaps rapid and ""widespread uptake"" is possible. I have faith that there is more of a primed public out there than we imagine.

Profound and sweeping concepts often do take time. I am reminded of the fact that I came across Jay's work first in 1971, the same year that I attended, as a student, a symposium at MIT on ""Inadvertant Climate Modification"". For years I have taught about this in my high school classes and consistently have felt frustrated and discouraged by the perceived lack of change. Today, 35 years, a failed presidential attempt by Al Gore, and an ensuing film on ""Inconvenient Truths"" later, I cannot escape discussion of global warming. What happened? Perhaps a primed public that I was not able to perceive, and the right publication at the right time.

Ah.... isn't all this complexity wonderful?
Jay, I'm running home to start my book ... just as soon as classes are over.

Steve Roderick
Lincoln Sudbury Regional High School
Posted by Steven Roderick <sroderic@mac.com> posting date Thu, 04 Jan 2007 08:56:20 -0800 _______________________________________________
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Post by »

Posted by <martin.kunc@uai.cl>

Kim put forward very interesting questions:

>So what puzzles me is why other great ideas do not have to wait so long >for widespread uptake?

And my only reflection after showing SD to executives is that people do not want complex solutions, they want just solutions!!! And most of the business arena's solutions are solutions: simple, clear and easy to apply.

Perhaps what we are missing in SD is to make complexity simpler to people... Or we should take the road suggested by Jay Forrester: to teach people to think in terms of complex problems with multiple feedback loops so they can appreciate our solutions.

Martin Kunc


*********************************************************
Martin H. Kunc, Ph.D.
Profesor Estrategia / Professor of Strategic Management Escuela de Negocios / Business School Universidad Adolfo Ibañez Avda. Pte Errazuriz 3485, Las Condes Santiago, Chile Posted by <martin.kunc@uai.cl> posting date Thu, 04 Jan 2007 13:34:58 -0300 _______________________________________________
sarah sheard
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Post by sarah sheard »

Posted by sarah sheard <sheardsheard@yahoo.com>

Kim Warren asks (re: Six Sigma, balanced scorecard, etc.): What did they do that we missed?

If anyone is interested in an article I wrote called ""Life Cycle of a Silver Bullet"", which addresses not how ideas get started necessarily, but how they progress from a good idea to the popular thing to old hat, I'd be happy to send it to you. Alternately, it is on line at http://www.stsc.hill.af.mil/Crosstalk/2 ... heard.html

Sarah Sheard
Posted by sarah sheard <sheardsheard@yahoo.com> posting date Fri, 5 Jan 2007 05:37:16 -0800 (PST) _______________________________________________
Bill Harris
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QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies

Post by Bill Harris »

Posted by Bill Harris <bill_harris@facilitatedsystems.com>

I've just found the time to read through this discussion. I've seen many good ideas; I'll perhaps add a few to the fray. I realize there are exceptions to each claim I make; I'm largely making broad-brush-stroke claims. I also realize some of you have already written similar ideas; I offer these in the hopes that the different wording or association with other ideas might be useful.

1. There seems to be an undercurrent of ""Sell them on SD, and then
they'll come to us when they have a problem to solve, we'll solve
it, and all will be good."" I have seen (and have, on certain days,
shared) that feeling, but it doesn't mesh with my experience with
decision makers. They have a problem to solve, they need it solved,
and they don't really care about the methodology. Selling the
methodology may seem to many as selling snake oil or asking for a
religious conversion, and it may make decision makers wary.

2. I wonder if there's a bit of a time frame issue. Sometimes decision
makers want answers now, in this meeting or in this week. Sometimes
modeling takes longer than that. I like Jay's suggestion of
publication to a broad audience for that reason. Assuming some of
us can find the time and money to support the development and
marketing of such publications, we've taken the time of modeling out
of the critical path for the decision makers.

3. We're, not surprisingly, talking to a wrong but very comfortable
audience. Few here will ignore us. Few will question the soundness
of our reason. But few here will have the power to change things.
The audience that decides is elsewhere. They don't (yet) know much
or anything about SD or other systems thinking approach. They don't
think they need to care. Some of them are at the highest levels in
business and government; others are simple citizens, as we are.
Those are the folk with whom we need to engage. They will ignore
us, at least sometimes. They won't bow down to our knowledge and
wisdom. But, if we can help them, they may include us.

If we want to have these conversations with more well-placed
audiences, I suggest we need to do more listening than talking.
_SPIN® Selling_ offers some suggestions.

4. There's more to systems thinking than SD (!). Those other aspects
of systems thinking are by no means limited to CLDs and archetypes!
There is a broad spectrum of systems thinking and systemic
approaches to problem solving and decision making; I've been told
that many of those are found more readily in countries outside the
USA.

While, as someone noted, SD is hard and thus may attract those who
specialize, we shouldn't forget the old saw about the carpenter with
only a hammer seeing every problem as a nail. Other systems (and
non-systems) methodologies come with their own worldviews.
Sometimes those other tools fit a problem better than SD; sometimes
SD fits better.

_Sometimes_ we can address issues better by making use of multiple
methodologies on the same problem. For example, I sometimes find
benefit in applying SSM's focus on varying perspectives when
creating SD models. I think we maximize our utility and thus our
acceptance when we focus on problem solving, not SD application.
That may mean we need to learn more methodologies, or it may mean we
need join with others who do master those methodologies. I don't
think we can categorize (limit) all those methodologies up front,
for that again would be a focus on the method, not the problem.

Thinking back to my days as an electrical design engineer and,
later, as a production engineer, we didn't rely on one approach to
design circuits or solve circuit problems. We'd use simple rules of
thumb, complex mathematics, prototype circuits, simulations, or
whatever else worked.

If we sell SD and simulation as _the_ way to go, then we become the
analogy of the simulator vendors. That's fine, if that's where we
want to be, but we're even more removed from the major decisions
that way.

Of course, the only way we could use rules of thumb reliably was
because we had built circuits, done the complex math, simulated
circuits, and the like, so we had a good idea of the limitations of
each approach. Perhaps that's a key difference. In SD, we tend to
regard simulation as the core; in engineering, we regarded working
circuits as the core. Perhaps more of us should get more involved
in the real-world aspect of issues, using simulation and other
approaches as the tools. And, yes, I do realize the important value
simulation has in the problems we address with SD.

5. Do we really want SD to be accepted like SixSigma? See
http://preview.tinyurl.com/y46j2k or curiouscat's comments to
http://preview.tinyurl.com/y77a7k, and think of boom and bust
patterns.

6. I wonder if we sound as if we have the smart answer and we're bummed
that those in power don't. Hmm. We're smart, they're dumb. Will
sounding like that cause them to want to listen?

It seems to me being effective involves learning how to get into
power positions ourselves or how to connect with those already in
power positions effectively. See http://preview.tinyurl.com/y3qul3
for perhaps one piece of the puzzle.

Just a few thoughts; I do welcome your reactions and insights.

Bill
- --
Bill Harris
Facilitated Systems
Posted by Bill Harris <bill_harris@facilitatedsystems.com>
posting date Sat, 06 Jan 2007 13:12:48 -0800 _______________________________________________
""Geoff McDonnell""
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QUERY SD Impact on National Government Policies

Post by ""Geoff McDonnell"" »

Posted by ""Geoff McDonnell"" <gmcdonne@bigpond.net.au>

It's interesting that both Jay Forrester's Books and Al Gore's film have been brought up during this discussion.

Perhaps to engage the public in the 21st century we might need to shift our focus from books to movies and other forms of online visual interaction like videogames.

Having pondered the underwhelming impact of SD on Health Policy over the years, there are two things I have been exploring.....

1. How exactly does policy happen and how can we make this better?
IMHO, John Kingdon's work, is a good place to start here
(see http://www.rhpeo.org/reviews/2003/1/index.htm for this
and a few others )

2. As well as using SD to see what is possible, how can we improve
its capacity to also show what is possible? Again Edward Tufte's
new book Beautiful Evidence
http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/books_be has inspired me to focus
again on this area of dynamic evidence displays through the use
of compelling and engaging animations.

regards
geoff
Dr Geoff McDonnell

University of New South Wales
AUSTRALIA
Posted by ""Geoff McDonnell"" <gmcdonne@bigpond.net.au> posting date Sat, 6 Jan 2007 11:00:46 +1100 _______________________________________________
""Douglas McKelvie""
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Post by ""Douglas McKelvie"" »

Posted by ""Douglas McKelvie"" <d.mckelvie@virgin.net>

Re John Gunkler's point about the need to be able to build a model for under a million dollars...

I'm not a regular poster so for those who don't know me, I work with Eric Wolstenholme and others in the UK, mainly around health and social care, with some criminal justice and workforce planning occasionally thrown into the mix,

It strikes me that the small size of project that UK government bodies are prepared to fund (typically around 20 - 30 days) means that we have to move quickly to create useful models, but also constrains our ability to publish as much as we should about what we are doing.

Working recently on a hospital redesign project, I started by showing the group a one stock model, admissions(flow) - patients in beds (stock) and discharges(flow driven by average length of stay), and asked them to tell me their normal admission rate, average length of stay, and normal bed-occupancy level. I suppose you could not call that SD since it had no feedback - it was mainly an introduction to some building blocks.

Needless to say, the numbers they produced did not remotely add up (we're pretty sure that it is ""length of stay"" that they have not measured properly - it is probably double what they thought it was).

The most important point is that the members of our small group were amazed by - and grateful for - this insight.

We've since moved on to build a ""proper"" model, but I'd have to say that nothing so far has matched this initial revelation. It also shows the benefit of starting with a running model, however simple.

Posted by ""Douglas McKelvie"" <d.mckelvie@virgin.net> posting date Sat, 6 Jan 2007 13:22:23 -0000 _______________________________________________
Jean-Jacques Laublé
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Post by Jean-Jacques Laublé »

Posted by Jean-Jacques Laublé <jean-jacques.lauble@wanadoo.fr>

Hi Martin

> From all the numerous reasons of the slow acceptation of SD yours is
> to my

opinion the first one to consider.
I want too to congratulate you about this statement that should be normally difficult to recognize for an academic.
I can tell you that you are right because I am on the user side and I know very well the mentality of business people being one myself.
They are not ready to adopt a discipline that needs in its actual state of art the mentality of a researcher.
I think that the solution is to make SD simpler to use.
It is actually adapted to people with more than 10 years of practice that had to experiment for a long time until they found what SD can be useful too.
Regards.
Jean-Jacques Laublé Allocar
Strasbourg France

Jean-Jacques Laublé.
Posted by Jean-Jacques Laublé <jean-jacques.lauble@wanadoo.fr> posting date Sat, 6 Jan 2007 19:49:56 +0100 _______________________________________________
""Sousa, Jorge Alberto""
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Post by ""Sousa, Jorge Alberto"" »

Posted by ""Sousa, Jorge Alberto"" <jasousa@indra.pt>

I think Martin Kunc is absolutely right.

In my business experience, people are running out of time to learn new things and most of all, they have no patience to listen to never ending justifications for one problem they have. They just want answers and sometimes, we are so absorbed by the search of perfection that we forget that business is time constrained.

I believe that if we simplify our message, and supply the solutions, we will have more success.

Nevertheless it is important to teach people to think in terms of system dynamics especially in the younger generations.

Jorge Sousa
Posted by ""Sousa, Jorge Alberto"" <jasousa@indra.pt> posting date Sat, 6 Jan 2007 21:20:48 +0100 _______________________________________________
Les?aw Michnowski
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Post by Les?aw Michnowski »

Posted by Les?aw Michnowski <kte@psl.org.pl>

Dear Professor Forrester,

Thank you very much for sending your comments concerning supporting public.

I agree with following your ideas:
>I believe that those in government are not the proper target. Instead
>we should be addressing the public with clarifying insights about the
>major problems of a country. Those in government need a supporting
>public. (…)
""The system dynamics approach that I have been describing is very different from the emphasis on data gathering and statistical analysis that occupies much of social research."" (Forrester, 2006, 1995)

I think we need to receive full support both from governments, decision makers and from the public. The question is on which way. The system dynamic approach seems to be very comprehensive tool to present our ideas which are important to public.

Nowadays we are in quite new global situation: in the State of Change and Risk.
We need to change shortsighted economic growth into sustained economic growth, and change pernicious globalization into fair globalization (that allow full and productive employment and decent work for all).

Particularly, rapid economic growth of world developing countries like China should be taken under ecohumanistic control. I support the view it is impossible without system dynamics.

As a first step in this direction I propose to convince policy makers that they need a new tool: DYNAMIC MONITORING.

I propose to build in multi stage way,
continuously under development, commonly accessible, worldwide (net and GRID) sustainable development information system for:
- dynamic monitoring,
- long range forecasting, and
- measurable evaluation of
policy, economy, work and other changes
in the life conditions

My proposals are available on web page:

World - Grid Type, Continuously Under-development - System Dynamics

http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferenc ... pp/184.ppt

http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferenc ... CHN184.pdf .

DYNAMIC MONITORING is essential for policy corrections.

I am looking forward to your opinion.

Best regards –

Leslaw Michnowski
Posted by Les?aw Michnowski <kte@psl.org.pl> posting date Sat, 6 Jan 2007 19:50:39 +0100 _______________________________________________
""David Rees""
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Post by ""David Rees"" »

Posted by ""David Rees"" <david.rees@hpls.co.nz>

One of the problem's with the 'Jack Welch' approach is that Welch, like the majority of industry leaders, including those down her in NZ, operate a model of capitalism that focuses on short-term profit maximisation at the expense of all other goals. One factor in the slow uptake is that SD preaches a message that many still do not want to hear and maybe the reason that it is taking off in health more rapidly than in others areas is that the sector is being confronted with the rising tide of chronic disease - something that can only be addressed with a long-term, systemic perspective.
The issues on the front page of health fit very well with what SD has to offer. In contrast SD has little to offer those obsessed with daily flutuation in share price and quarterly profit figures.
Posted by ""David Rees"" <david.rees@hpls.co.nz> posting date Mon, 8 Jan 2007 07:41:03 +1300 _______________________________________________
Fabian Fabian
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Post by Fabian Fabian »

Posted by Fabian Fabian <f_fabian@yahoo.com>

Hi All,

More or less in 1999, I had the chance to participate in a group meeting
with Jamshid Garajedaghi, who brought this phrase to the table:

""You don't sell Systems Thinking, you USE Systems Thinking""

Thus the need of embedding ""user friendly"" Systems Thinking in our value
propositions.

As a recent anecdote, I had the chance of explaining a causal loop diagram
built around a client issue, to a port engineer without any previous
knowledge of ST, and his feedback was:

""If only I received reports like this instead of 700 page reports...""

As in any difusion process, we should keep making ""baby steps""...
Perseverance and some luck in identifying ""champions"" or ""sneezers"" or
""gatekeepers"", will make the spread of ST/SD tools and language more
intense.

Of course we should go on with all ST/SD education initiatives, at all
levels...

Be well...

Fabian Szulanski
Posted by Fabian Fabian <f_fabian@yahoo.com> posting date Sun, 7 Jan 2007 06:59:15 -0800 (PST) _______________________________________________
""Richard Tait""
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Post by ""Richard Tait"" »

Posted by ""Richard Tait"" <richard.tait@med.govt.nz>

I have arrived back at work today and read this thread with great interest.
I am a relative newcomer to SD, and appreciate the collective wisdom that this list can offer to people like me as I learn more about it. I thought I would share a couple of observations that I have picked up during my initial forays into SD in the context of the government department I work for. They seem to resonate with comments that others have made.

I work for a reasonably large (by New Zealand standards) central government policy agency in the area of economic development. Over the last year or so I have come to appreciate the benefits that a systems thinking approach can provide in the modern public policy environment, and I have begun what will probably be a long journey to try to get systems thinking and SD approaches to enter the toolkit for policy analysis in my own and other public sector organisations.

While this journey has just started, I have begun to observe a few things which have been mentioned in comments by others:

1. In the world of developing policy advice for consideration and decisions
by government, timeframes are often tight and resources scarce. While a
systems thinking approach could be helpful in scoping problems to avoid surprises down the track, when the pressure is on there seems to be limited willingness to depart from the traditional problem-solving recipes and tools, a dynamic that ironically increases the risk of policy failure. Some people seem to have quite firm mental models about problem solving approaches!

2. There can be significant time and cost associated with modelling exercises,
particularly because there aren't the skills to do it in-house.

I believe that getting public servants - policy analysts - to base their advice on a more systemic approach to problem solving will lead to more robust policy design. While I think it is important for politicians to be able to think systemically about complex problems, they are ultimately quite solutions-focused and may have limited tolerance for discussion about methodological niceties. This means that there is an important role for officials advising government Ministers to think systemically about complex problems, and then to lead their Ministers through the main insights, and the consequences for policy design. This conversation should help Ministers to understand the dimensions of the problem in terms that are not too linear and reductionist. Simple CLDs could be used in this context.

I also think that the public sector needs to be able to apply systems approaches to analysis of policy problems, and in the process, work with stakeholders beyond the immediate agency (see the Demos work on Systems Failure for more discussion of this aspect). All of this suggests some implications for public sector analytical capability and process, which will need some time to build and will be complemented by initiatives aimed at the education system, the public, etc. I see the solution as a combination of deliberate and opportunistic capability building as well as harnessing the 'demonstration effects' of well-chosen projects.

>From a personal perspective I have found that a very pragmatic and 'soft'
approach works best with my colleagues. I help them understand the need to take a systems thinking perspective on complex problems, supported by relevant practical examples. This (hopefully) leads to an 'aha' moment where they go
""I see what you are saying, what have you got that can help us?"" Then I have
picked a handful of practical problems where non-threatening tools like CLDs can be used as a way of creating a more effective conversation around the nature of the problem and the relationships between relevant factors. Ideally I would like to build people's capability to be able to whip up quick CLDs by themselves or in groups, but the conversation process itself seems paramount and there are several ways to generate the right kind of conversation.

To my mind, it will be valuable to have a large number of people in the organisation with the ability to think and talk about problems in this way, as a complement to other approaches. Beyond this, these people should be capable of making judgements about whether and when it would be valuable to develop more formal simulation models, and know where to go to find the expertise.

In short, I see the more general systems language capability as an essential entrée to the acceptance of deeper SD projects, at least in the public sector environment here. For many people this is as far as they may need to go and it would improve the quality of their output. From my limited observation, pushing hard on the simulation modelling side without preparing the ground first leads to resistance (given the time pressures, mental models about analytical approaches etc). This might put people off the whole thing, meaning that they will miss out on the benefits of using a less formalised approach that they can
usefully apply in their day-to-day work. This would be unfortunate.

Cheers
Richard


Richard Tait | Chief Advisor - Strategy Development | Ministry of Economic Development | New Zealand
Posted by ""Richard Tait"" <richard.tait@med.govt.nz>
posting date Mon, 8 Jan 2007 11:00:49 +1300
_______________________________________________
Bill Braun
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Post by Bill Braun »

Posted by Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.com>

I am working on a project at work that supports the point Bill Harris makes.
I have not used the term ""system dynamics"" with my clients and in fact, the model itself is a poor example of SD. The critical point of acceptance, in my opinion, has been the tight fit between the model's behavior (from a laboriously constructed data set) and historical data from a separate data source. My hope/expectation is to leverage this engagement into another, and over time gain street credibility for a tool that works.

Bill Braun
Posted by Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.com> posting date Sun, 07 Jan 2007 09:36:07 -0500 _______________________________________________
""McConnell, George (SELEX Comms
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Post by ""McConnell, George (SELEX Comms »

Posted by ""McConnell, George (SELEX Comms) (UK)"" <george.mcconnell@selex-comm.com>

As always, Bill Harris has clearly articulated (some of) the issues that can too easily be missed when considering ""why don't (the management) use (the
technique) more/better"". This thread has Government Policies as its focus, but the same issues appear at almost alll levels of interaction - whenever the things that we (as individuals) know about are not utilised to what we see as their optimum advantage.

In this we ourselves fall into the trap of not thinking ""systems""-like - we preach that we should take into account feedback, different perspectives, ""a wider view"" and other good systems practices while simultaneously suggesting that we have the 'only' answer.

I don't make a good preacher - I find it far too easy to see another's point of view. What I hope I can achieve is that by applying SD (and other
techniques) others will be educated to step outside of their own comfort zone.
The problem with this is that it is very difficult to programme - so answering the question ""how do we get SD (substitute what you like for SD) used more""
becomes impossible as stated.

Douglas Mckelvie made a good point regarding the size of the 'typical'
modelling effort - certainly my 'customers' are reluctant to spend big bucks on any modelling task - no that is not quite right - they will spend on something complicated, flashy, difficult to understand because they perceive that ""big is beautiful"" when it comes to a model. Synthetic Environments they like - why, I suspect because it looks almost like the real thing! The problem, of course is that the more like the real thing it looks, the more like the real thing it is to understand - anyone want to model the model?

SD, and similar, doesn't look like the real thing to the majority of people (at least not at first glance) and therefore faces an immediate hurdle. There is an immediate distrust of any model built in a short time - it must be too simple!!
The fact that one of the big skills of the modeller is to abstract the problem to an appropriate level is lost on most (including some modellers).

Personally, I think that point 6 of Bill's contribution is perhaps the most important. It is incumbent on each and every modeller to make their 'customer'
feel that (whether it is true or not) they know much more and are much smarter than the person doing the modelling. The only thing the modeller is allowed to be smarter at is creating and manipulating a model. I see too many examples of the modeller assuming that they know best and 'forcing' particular representations of the problem simply because that is what the modeller is comfortable with.

What is clear is that there is no easy answer to this. Systems thinking is not for everyone - but it also is not (as Jack Ring already pointed out) only the Systems Dynamics Society who should be promoting it.

regards
George
Posted by ""McConnell, George (SELEX Comms) (UK)"" <george.mcconnell@selex-comm.com> posting date Mon, 8 Jan 2007 10:40:00 -0000 _______________________________________________
Jean-Jacques Laublé
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Post by Jean-Jacques Laublé »

Posted by Jean-Jacques Laublé <jean-jacques.lauble@wanadoo.fr>

Hi Pamela.
I would have liked to answer too many of the mails of this thread, but it is impossible.
But I think like you that people are mostly interested by events of their current life.
The most common example of SD application the beer game is not going to generate enthusiasm. So I tried to look for an example that is very close to people's preoccupation.

I think that one can find many.

Being in the rental car business I have observed that often the people's conversation is related to their car.
I have started a very simple model about the problems that generate the use of a car.
There is quite a lot of dynamic around it (amount of money borrowed, possibility of refunding the money, cash available, time of conservation etc.) I posted the model at the SDSBSIG web site, and asked for any interest, but did not developed the model further on, nobody having manifested any interest in it.
There are plenty of good ideas, but when it comes to doing something, it is different.
Regards.

Hi Bill

I completely agree to your view of the problem.

> 1. There seems to be an undercurrent of ""Sell them on SD, and then .

This is fundamental. SD as a methodology if you try to explain it, will generate suspicion. It is better to use SD and then to reformulate the understanding in plain English which is the best way to communicate.

> 3. We're, not surprisingly, talking to a wrong but very comfortable

I have noticed from the beginning that the specificity of the audience of this list biases strongly any consideration whatever the subject studied.
It is sad that on this list there are very few end user (the one who decides to by or not to and who will suffer if his problem is not solved). A good thing too do would be to accept discussions with people who are against SD.

> 4. There's more to systems thinking than SD (!). Those other aspects.

Absolutely right. I would just add why system thinking? System
thinking will already look like a religion for some people. Why just not say thinking?
About the other aspects I would like to point out the difficulty when
you use SD is to isolate the exact benefit you get from the method as John Gunkler
reported it in a previous mail and the absolute necessity to work on that subject.
I am just starting to study the problem of a new SDer wanting to
start as a consultant.
Will his first strategy have an impact on the dynamic of his career
and does SD really add some understanding.
To do that practically I first make a report with Word on the problem
and try to analyse the situation with the simple tool of common language.
I note too the time spent doing the analysis.
I have already started and found how powerful is already a well
conducted reflection.
After some time, I resume the conclusions of this first study.
After that I can go towards different directions.
I can simply make some calculations with an ordinary tool or by hand
to refine the analysis.
After that second step, I note the new understanding and make a new
report modified of the appreciation of the problem plus the time taken. It is too a way to appreciate the
added value of quantifying things even if it is at a very low level.
At this stage, if I feel that I have the problem is still not very
clear I can start using a more sophisticated but still qualitative technique like cognitive
mapping.
I may use a tool like decision explorer or simply the sketching capacity of Vensim.
I use or uns not techniques explained in the last book from Ackermann 'visual
thinking'.
After that I do the same and rewrite or modify the general report
eventually and try to evaluate the added value and the time spent.
I do not think that SSM would help me in this situation, although I
find the philosophy of the method very interesting but more adapted to concretely
implementation or finding a consensus of action when people with different world views are
concerned by the problem.
After that I have different choices.
The simple one is to eventually use a spreadsheet and make a simple
static model.
I can do it, note the time and the added value modifying the report
eventually.
I will do exactly the same job with Vensim, using it in a static way,
and trying to evaluate if staying static Vensim has some advantages on a spreadsheet.
I have until now not been able to differentiate the advantages of
both products of course only static.
Vensim should be more powerful, it has dimension verification, reality
check that can work too in static mode, optimization (like excell), sensivity
analysis, synthesim Etc. But Excel is easier to use.

After that new experience I note the added value and the time taken.
At every step I try to evaluate the utility to go to a more
sophisticated technique and write it down. It is absurd to use a more sophisticated
technique if one does not expect in advance a possibility of added value.
So I can decide to stop at any stage.
At this time I can decide to use a more sophisticated technique like
multicriteria.
Multicriteria is not very difficult to apply and can give insights.
I still take note of the time plus the added value if any.
I could use other techniques, but I prefer to use techniques I am
familiar with.
It is then time to go to a dynamic method like SD.
I can first draw a CLD and then a CLD with stocks and do the same,
taking note of the added value and the time taken.
Then I go to the quantitative SD.
I do not try to build a dynamic model representing all that I have
studied so far qualitatively or quantitatively, because I would get a monster, and
be unable to analyze it.
I start very simply, trying eventually different starting models,
and report as usual the time and the added value.
I think that if at this stage I cannot find a simple model that I
can get some added value from I prefer to stop and think that SD is not very appropriate to
the problem.
If I can get some added value, I modify the general report on the
problem, take note of the time taken and think about the utility of adding some more
material to the model and why. I take note of the why, do it, write down the added value
if any and the time taken. And so on, until the added value seems weak compared to
the time taken. And this situation can come very quickly.
This process to my opinion is not so long as it looks.
The great advantage is that it avoids the risk of being drowned by
any technology, forces at every step to go back on earth, writing down in plain
language the conclusions and reports the utility of the work. Above all, you the user is the
thinker and not the computer or the software.

I have started the process with the SD consultant problem, and any body interested in participating to the process is welcome.
One thing too, is anybody able to tell in advance, if there is a lot of dynamic in the consultant problem or not?
One more remark. It is not possible to draw any general conclusion from this experience as the results will be dependant on the problem studied and may vary considerably with other problems. But it seems however interesting to do and may help in finding some ways to use SD more appropriately more often and avoid the big enschilada as Jim Hines like to call them, that may have caused a lot of damage to the field.
Another remark; if there is no added value in one step, I try to understand why and find out if it is due to the method used or to my fault and eventually try a new one.
Other remark, in the process I can of course change my goal. which is an added value, if the change of goal is judicious.

>6. I wonder if we sound as if we have the smart answer and we're bummed.
This is somewhat the mentality on this list. We are very clever and
the other people are too stupid to understand our method. This is a very bad approach to
convincing people.
Regards.
Jean-Jacques Laublé Allocar
Strasbourg France.
Posted by Jean-Jacques Laublé <jean-jacques.lauble@wanadoo.fr> posting date Mon, 8 Jan 2007 12:09:58 +0100 _______________________________________________
Adrian Boucher <adrian@infome
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Post by Adrian Boucher <adrian@infome »

Posted by Adrian Boucher <adrian@infometrics.go-plus.net>

Dear Colleagues

I am so pleased to see this topic being given an airing.

We have a Government over here [UK] that proclaimed (among other things that failed to come to fruition) that it was into, ""joined-up thinking"".

""Aha!"", I thought. This must mean that they will be attempting to recognise the fact that ""everything is connected to everything else, and so we shall see some evidence of a willingness to think systemtically.""

How wrong could I be? Hardly a day passes but we see examples of standard SD / Senge archetypes being addresses through the application of bandaid over haemorrhages in:

EDUCATION (SCHOOLS)
ANTI-SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR
PUBLIC HEALTH
NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE
AFGHANISTAN
IRAQ
LEGAL SYSTEM
UNIVERSITIES
DEFENCE ... etc. etc.

The Law of Unintended Consequences is alive and well and living in Britain, whilst Nero fiddles and Rome burns. PLease forgive mixed metaphors, but my blood pressure is rising rapidly. However, I have a relatively valid SD model that will explain to me the consequences of allowing it to do so.

I really think the SD community needs to bring to the wider attention of Governments at all levels, Professor Jay Forrester's seminal article, ""The Counterintutive Behavior of Social Systems"", http://web.mit.edu/sdg/www/D-4468-2.Cou ... uitive.pdf

This should be compulsory reading for all who would enter politics, public service education and business.

Kind regards

Every good wish.


Adrian
Posted by Adrian Boucher <adrian@infometrics.go-plus.net> posting date Mon, 8 Jan 2007 17:18:24 +0000 _______________________________________________
""Jim Hines"" <Jim@ventanasys
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Post by ""Jim Hines"" <Jim@ventanasys »

Posted by ""Jim Hines"" <Jim@ventanasystems.com>

A comment and a question:

1. Comment:

A long time ago, I complained to Swami Chetanananda that system dynamics grew slowly while other approaches seemed to grow like weeds (in 1988 the example was expert systems, which had come from nowhere and was suddenly taking root all over the place). Swami replied, ""Things that grow like weeds often are"".

Jay Forrester has observed that SD grows at ten to twenty percent per year.
That seems to be a healthy and sustainable rate.

2. Question:

What publications should people on this list be targeting for articles?
Why? How? (e.g the New York Times Op Ed page? A blog somewhere?).

Jim Hines
Posted by ""Jim Hines"" <Jim@ventanasystems.com> posting date Mon, 8 Jan 2007 15:46:18 -0500 _______________________________________________
Markus Schwaninger <markus.sc
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Post by Markus Schwaninger <markus.sc »

Posted by Markus Schwaninger <markus.schwaninger@unisg.ch>

Responding to Louis Macovsky's inquiry, here is an article for download, which I recommend:
http://www.ifb.unisg.ch/org/ifb/ifbweb. ... ention.pdf

The case reported therein is about a pharmaceutical company, in which SD has become spread to a substantial degree. At the outset, a unit for Strategy and Operational Excellence was in search of a methodology which would attend to the need for representing and simulating different kinds of corporate issues. The unit had strong simulation capabilities, but these people did not know SD. With some help from outside, custom SD models for managerial decision-making were built together with the outside consultants. The process was characterized by a high degree of participation of model users. Over time new application areas were discovered and SD solutions implemented.

Sincerely,

Markus Schwaninger.
Posted by Markus Schwaninger <markus.schwaninger@unisg.ch> posting date Mon, 8 Jan 2007 15:30:26 +0100 _______________________________________________
""Chawla, Chander"" <Chander.
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Post by ""Chawla, Chander"" <Chander. »

Posted by ""Chawla, Chander"" <Chander.Chawla@t-mobile.com>

Has anyone thought of applying SD to solve this problem?

We all work with SD to solve complex problems. The non adoption of SD by governments in policymaking seems like a complex problem to me. Most the responses I read offer linear explanations just like you would hear from people who don't follow SD or have linear view of the world.

Time to apply SD to accelerate the adoption of SD.

Cordially,
Chander Chawla
Posted by ""Chawla, Chander"" <Chander.Chawla@t-mobile.com> posting date Tue, 9 Jan 2007 19:24:23 -0800 _______________________________________________
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