QUERY SD Thought Problem

[Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.co]

Posted by Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.com>

I have a faint recollection of an archetypal story told in the context
of an SD lesson. A person leaves home at random times but almost always
has to wait at the crossing for a train (which is on a regular schedule)
to pass. Does this ring a bell with anyone?

Bill Braun
Posted by Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.com>
posting date Wed, 09 Apr 2008 08:12:35 -0400
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[""Ulrey, Michael L"" <michael]

Posted by ""Ulrey, Michael L"" <michael.l.ulrey@boeing.com>

Here is a link to an amusing discussion of the ""Bus Paradox"" (which I
first encountered in Feller's ""Probability Theory and Its Applications
(Vol II) many years ago). The bus ""paradox"" is a little different than
what Bill has described, in that the bus arrival times are randomly
distributed, but I think the lessons to be learned are probably the same
as in the example Bill recalls. Furthermore, this ""paradox"" is included
in the larger context of asking the question, ""Why do things seem to
come in threes?"". The author derives his conclusions from known results
in queuing theory, and does not mention SD directly (although the
author's company is called ""Performance Dynamics""!). It would make a
good exercise for the reader to formulate the problem(s) in an SD
context, and see what sorts of simulated results occur.

http://www.teamquest.com/resources/gunt ... /index.htm

Enjoy!
Mike

Michael L. Ulrey
Air Traffic Management
The Boeing Co.
Posted by ""Ulrey, Michael L"" <michael.l.ulrey@boeing.com>
posting date Thu, 10 Apr 2008 12:55:20 -0700
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