ANNOUNCE Tsunami Wave Prediction Paper

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Monte Kietpawpan <kietpawpan@
Junior Member
Posts: 12
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

ANNOUNCE Tsunami Wave Prediction Paper

Post by Monte Kietpawpan <kietpawpan@ »

Posted by Monte Kietpawpan <kietpawpan@yahoo.com>

For over fifty years, a number of SD projects have
been involved in the reproduction of problematic
behaviors. Rarely has SD been used for point
prediction, particularly when what to be reproduced
are not reference modes but 'reference points'--the
values of an important variable.

I developed a specific point-predicting model guided
by the SD paradigm.

http://www.springerlink.com/content/g0537874x8377w53/
[Contact poster for additional documentation]

This work leads to three major accomplishments:

1) The modification of a classic scientific law and
theory in the field of wave mechanics.

2) The discovery of serious errors in a bathymatry
dataset released by a fine geographical data center.

3) The development of the best model (for today)
in the context of the study site (Andaman Sea).

The model structure is relatively small, with
only a single pair of level and rate variables in a
double loop system. Hence, most of its causal
relations are supported by collected pieces of
established facts, making this SD project a
sample of doing good science. Others are
initially hypothetical and eventually confimed by
the simulation results. The report may interest
environmental students and those who love
small, predictive models.

(This model is intended to calculate the time it takes
for the leading tsunami wave crest to travel the
distance between its source in the open-sea and
the considered targets (tsunameters and shorelines
of coastal communities). It predicts the time when
the level just reaches its maximum value).

Regards,
M. Kietpawpan
Posted by Monte Kietpawpan <kietpawpan@yahoo.com>
posting date Thu, 1 May 2008 06:51:39 -0700 (PDT)
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