ANNOUNCE The Phillips Machine

[""Frank Colcord"" <frank@colc]

Posted by ""Frank Colcord"" <frank@colcord.net>

Just read this article and thought the group might like it.

The part I found most interesting was that the visceral involvement of
the observers of the model made building the model/machine an
important influence on fiscal policy.

regards,

Frank

""The computer model that once explained the British economy""

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008 ... mics/print

This article appeared in the Guardian on Thursday May 08 2008 on p25
of the Financial section. It was last updated at 15:45 on May 08 2008.

Posted by ""Frank Colcord"" <frank@colcord.net>
posting date Fri, 9 May 2008 11:47:06 +0100
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[""Jim Thompson"" <james.thomp]

Posted by ""Jim Thompson"" <james.thompson@strath.ac.uk>

For more information and connection to today's system dynamics
methodology, see ""Mr. Hamilton, Mr. Forrester and a Foundation
for Evolutionary Economics"" by Michael J. Radzicki; Journal of
Economic Issues, Vol. 37, 2003, available at

<http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferenc ... RS/923.pdf>

Jim Thompson
Posted by ""Jim Thompson"" <james.thompson@strath.ac.uk>
posting date Fri, 9 May 2008 15:33:15 -0400
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[Dr Adrian Boucher FRSA <adria]

Posted by Dr Adrian Boucher FRSA <adrian@infometrics.go-plus.net>

Esteemed Colleagues


This posting had a nostalgic ring for me. I studied economics as an
undergraduate at Swansea University in the late 1960s, and there was a
Phillips machine (not, unfortunately, working) in one of the Seminar Rooms.

The Prof at the time, Ted Nevin, used to threaten his tutees with
reconstructing the machine if they submitted below standard work. Quite
an incentive to study.

Phillips' machine looked like a Heath-Robinson fantasy.

Kind wishes

Adrian Boucher
Posted by Dr Adrian Boucher FRSA <adrian@infometrics.go-plus.net>
posting date Fri, 9 May 2008 16:07:30 +0100
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[""John Morecroft"" <jmorecrof]

Posted by ""John Morecroft"" <jmorecroft@london.edu>

Adrian

Your comment about nostalgia for the Phillips machine reminded me about
Bill Ryder, a US-based member of the SD community, who took a special
interest in the machine. When he visited the UK in 2004 (to attend the
Oxford conference) he visited the Science Museum in London where a
fully-working Phillips machine is on display (alongside an early digital
computer). Bill sent me a picture of himself standing beside the
machine and he subsequently collaborated with an LBS student, Andrie de
Vries, to build an SD model of Phillips' hydraulic marvel.

Are you out there Bill?

Regards John

_________________________________

John Morecroft | Senior Fellow
Management Science and Operations
London Business School
Posted by ""John Morecroft"" <jmorecroft@london.edu>
posting date Sat, 10 May 2008 13:10:05 +0100
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[""Swanson, John"" <John.Swans]

Posted by ""Swanson, John"" <John.Swanson@sdgworld.net>

There was an extra piece in the printed version of this Guardian article
that didn't make it to the website and is even more interesting. It
says:

""Phillips designed his machine to settle an argument about the
circulation of money between John Maynard Keynes and Dennis Robertson.""
After describing how the machine pumped coloured water between tanks
through pipes it says ""The machine ...solved the dispute between Keynes
and Robertson by showing that one had been talking about a stock, the
other a flow.""

John Swanson
Posted by ""Swanson, John"" <John.Swanson@sdgworld.net>
posting date Mon, 12 May 2008 11:49:11 +0100
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[Dr Adrian Boucher FRSA <adria]

Posted by Dr Adrian Boucher FRSA <adrian@infometrics.go-plus.net>

Hi Jim

Many thanks for your message. I think the SD list is one of the
friendliest and most helpful of academic communities. I have received
many extremely useful and helpful notes of guidance over the years, sent
by generous people all over the world. I am proud to be involved (if
only marginally) with this community.

My understanding is that the Phillips machine was used quite
successfully to bring home to generations of economists the concepts of
stocks and flows (pretty essential distinction in economics) and to show
the Circular Flow of Income in action. A diagram of the machine was the
frontispiece of Newlyn's ""Theory of Money"" way back in the late 1960s.

John Morecroft has also mailed me with information of a working model
of the machine at the Science Museum in South Kensington. Next time I
am in London, I shall make a point of visiting.

Every good wish.

Adrian
Posted by Dr Adrian Boucher FRSA <adrian@infometrics.go-plus.net>
posting date Mon, 12 May 2008 12:13:22 +0100
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[Dr Adrian Boucher FRSA <adria]

Posted by Dr Adrian Boucher FRSA <adrian@infometrics.go-plus.net>

How interesting!

So, it is possible for even great economists to make fundamental SD
errors. This raises the question of why is there significant resistance
to and anathema for the methods of systems thinking and System Dynamics
among economists? It also is reflected in the fact that the majority of
introductory textbooks in the subject focus on partial equilibrium
models that compare successive equilibrium points, rather than to focus
on the more interesting dynamic characteristics of market behaviour.


Every good wish.


Adrian Boucher
Posted by Dr Adrian Boucher FRSA <adrian@infometrics.go-plus.net>
posting date Tue, 13 May 2008 15:53:14 +0100
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[""Jim Thompson"" <james.thomp]

Posted by ""Jim Thompson"" <james.thompson@strath.ac.uk>

>There was an extra piece in the printed version of this Guardian article
>that didn't make it to the website and is even more interesting.

Although interesting, the extra piece may have been edited out
because Keynes died in 1946, and the Phillips machine was built
in 1949.

JT
Posted by ""Jim Thompson"" <james.thompson@strath.ac.uk>
posting date Tue, 13 May 2008 09:35:36 -0400
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