QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

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""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategyd
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Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategyd »

Posted by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com>

Quite by accident I happened to hear of this initiative, which seems to be
somehow backed by the European Commission and a number of weighty-sounding
bodies, ... Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Centre national de la
Recherche
Scientifique and Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Science Sociales, European Climate
Forum and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

If it is as important as it seems, it's surprising not to have featured strongly
on our discussions - anyone know anything about this, and if/how/to what extent
experienced SD professionals are involved?

regards - Kim
Posted by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com>
posting date Fri, 4 Jul 2008 16:01:21 +0100
_______________________________________________
Stefano Armenia - Ateneo <ste
Junior Member
Posts: 6
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by Stefano Armenia - Ateneo <ste »

Posted by Stefano Armenia - Ateneo <stefano.armenia@uniroma2.it>

As far as I remember, Paal Davidsen was also involved in it.
It would be interesting to know whether also other universities and bodies may
enter this project at later stages

Regards, Stefano
Posted by Stefano Armenia - Ateneo <stefano.armenia@uniroma2.it>
posting date Sat, 5 Jul 2008 14:22:10 +0200
_______________________________________________
""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategyd
Member
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategyd »

Posted by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com>

thanks Stefano and others who replied - I have since been contacted by
someone involved, who seemed to know all about Jay Forrester and Limits to
Growth, but not about anyone currently in the SD field - at least I did not
recognise any of the 20-odd names he listed. It seems this is a major
EU-sponsored project, so it is still more surprising that no-one in the
Society seems to know anything about it.

How is it possible that such an important initiative could be started with
apparently no knowledge or involvement from the top people in our community
who have worked on this for decades ?!

I will be meeting this new contact in a couple of weeks and will report back.


Kim Warren
Posted by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com>
posting date Thu, 10 Jul 2008 12:11:55 +0100
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""Jim Thompson"" <james.thomp
Member
Posts: 21
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QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by ""Jim Thompson"" <james.thomp »

Posted by ""Jim Thompson"" <james.thompson@strath.ac.uk>

Kim Warren asks, ""How is it possible that such an important
initiative could be started with apparently no knowledge or
involvement from the top people in our community who have worked
on this for decades?!"", says more than it asks.

Environmental science, climatology, population studies,
atmospheric sciences and associated fields already use 'dynamic
systems' logic. From a gloss of the literature in those fields,
the rigour applied and techniques developed appear to be at least
equal to the work of ""our community"".

Perhaps we should ask why those who choose to not join ""our
community"" exclude themselves.

Jim Thompson
Posted by ""Jim Thompson"" <james.thompson@strath.ac.uk>
posting date Thu, 10 Jul 2008 09:57:45 -0400
_______________________________________________
Jean-Jacques Laubl=E9 <jean-j
Junior Member
Posts: 3
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by Jean-Jacques Laubl=E9 <jean-j »

Posted by Jean-Jacques Laubl=E9 <jean-jacques.lauble@wanadoo.fr>

Hi Richard

Thank you to have indicated the web site of the
'Gobal system dynamics' project.

There is in it a chapter named partners where you can
see the main participants to this effort where effectively no
SD known people seem to participate.

I have sent to two French participants a short resume of our
questions, thinking that the best thing was to ask the people
concerned.

I think that other people from the forum should do the same for
participants from their own country.

I will report any answer.

Best regards.
Jean-Jacques Laubl=E9 Eurli Allocar
Strasbourg France.
Posted by Jean-Jacques Laubl=E9 <jean-jacques.lauble@wanadoo.fr>
posting date Fri, 11 Jul 2008 16:40:19 +0200
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Ralf Lippold <ralf_lippold@we
Member
Posts: 30
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by Ralf Lippold <ralf_lippold@we »

Posted by Ralf Lippold <ralf_lippold@web.de>

Hello Valerie,

you are giving a good point about the culture and non-translation (of major
works) of SD work - to be true the same in Germany.

Another point that I hear often from people (either academics or business):
""This stuff is really old and it hasn't worked out, has it?. Isn't there
anything new on that?"".

That is mostly end of the story and off to the next theory they go.

At 6:59 Uhr -0400 11.07.2008, SDMAIL Jim Thompson wrote:
> ...
> Perhaps we should ask why those who choose to not join ""our
> community"" exclude themselves.

and vice versa ;-)

This reminds me very much of Peter Senge telling an interesting story that
connects -at least in my head- pretty much with what we are experiencing
right now. The talk can be found at:

http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/307

In short here the story: while being at Stanford as an undergraduate Paul
Ehrlich's book ""The Population Bomb"" just had come out and one of Peter's
roommates happened to work with Paul Ehrlich (a biologist). So Peter who was
doing systems engineering at that time asked his roommate, ""Gee, biologists
are running around like they invented systems theory. Don' t you ever talk
to
the engineers?"". His roommate's answer was, ""No.""

This short story makes me wonder that we are stuck in a very similar muddy
and foggy path with system dynamics.

Looking across the boundaries of the own field is never easy and it is
pretty
uncertain what could evolve from a connection with other fields (as the one
being active part in the European Commission funded project that Kim has
unserved and shared with us all. Thanks Kim :-)).

The least plausible and most improbable solutions very often take the
largest
leverage points for the improvement of the whole system within.

So let's take the shaky first steps outside our regular system dynamics
boundaries and let's cross the gulfs of the unknown (strongly reminds me of
the 3rd SoL Global Forum in Oman past April, where the motto was ""Bridging
the Gulf - Learning across organizations, sectors, and cultures""
http://www.solonline.org/repository/dow ... d=14793147

Posted by Ralf Lippold <ralf_lippold@web.de>
posting date Fri, 11 Jul 2008 14:09:32 +0200
_______________________________________________
Jack Harich <register@thwink.
Member
Posts: 39
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by Jack Harich <register@thwink. »

Posted by Jack Harich <register@thwink.org>

SDMAIL Kim Warren wrote:
> How is it possible that such an important initiative could be started w=
ith
> apparently no knowledge or involvement from the top people in our
community
> who have worked on this for decades ?!=20

A related question is this:

Has an objective study of what analysis and modeling approaches are
appropriate for various problem types been done?

Such a study might highlight the pros and cons of SD, in terms of custome=
r
needs. This might give the Society a starting point on where its energies
are
best focused.

Such a study might also answer Kim's question. =20

SDMAIL Richard Stevenson wrote:
> Kim Warren writes:
> ""How is it possible that such an important initiative could be started
with
> apparently no knowledge or involvement from the top people in our
community
> who have worked on this for decades ?""
>
> Jack Harich and Paul Holmstr=F6m write:
> ""So, is SD capable of self-analysis? Is it capable of solving its own
> immaturity problem?""
>
> These questions are two sides of the same coin (or dice!).
>
> Despite the very best efforts of a few well-intentioned people, the SDS=
is
> an internally focussed, narrow and academic community. And in Europe a=
t
> least (where the study Kim refers to is happening) it is virtually
invisible.
> =20

Do you have a hypothesis for why this is so? Is it SD or the SDS that is
invisible?

> Kim implies that all competent SD practitioners must - must - have hear=
d
of
> the SDS. I for one, would be delighted if it transpires there are othe=
r
> (competent) people taking a different approach to develop and promote S=
D
> outside academia. I shall look forward to hearing more.
>
> And the SDS may be capable of self analysis (most of us are) but it is
> clearly institutionally incapable of self-reform.
> =20

This is an important distinction. Thanks. Could you elaborate on why SDS
appears to be capable of self analysis but not self reform?

> Another thought to add to the SDS strategy review.
>
> Further to Kim's comment on the European project, I found the website a=
t
> http://www.globalsystemdynamics.eu/index.php?id=3Dhome0
> This is clearly a project initiative funded by loads of European Commun=
ity
> money.
> =20

Thanks. A most amazing beginning for a project/website of large potential
influence.
> It appears to be so called without any direct relevance to ""system
> dynamics"" per se - the term in used in the sense of ""global systems"" be=
ing
> dynamic. As Kim says, they must be aware of Limits to Growth but none =
of
the
> participating partners has a specific SD interest as far as I can see.=20
> Rather, they are all much more mathematical modelling based.
>
> Interestingly, they are holding a ""Workshop on Simulation Modelling"" in
> Utrecht in August ). SD will clearly not be represented.
>
> It does seem a great pity that SD has not been engaged in a project lik=
e
> this. A properly established SD foundation should be searching the wor=
ld
for
> these kinds of initiatives and making sure the field is represented.
> =20

Or this event could be feedback that for some reason, SD is simply not re=
ady
for prime time on projects like this.

Hmmmmmm....
Posted by Jack Harich <register@thwink.org>
posting date Fri, 11 Jul 2008 14:10:40 -0400
_______________________________________________
""Jack Homer"" <jhomer@comcas
Member
Posts: 21
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by ""Jack Homer"" <jhomer@comcas »

Posted by ""Jack Homer"" <jhomer@comcast.net>

Jim Thompson writes:
""Environmental science, climatology, population studies, atmospheric
sciences
and associated fields already use 'dynamic systems' logic. From a gloss of
the literature in those fields, the rigour applied and techniques developed
appear to be at least equal to the work of 'our community'.""

I agree that there's lots of good modeling work out there that isn't SD, but
at the same time, it's important we don't sell ourselves short. In the
field
of public health, for example, there are standard SIR models and Markov
chain
models and, especially, these days, microsimulations at the level of the
individual. These have their strengths but they also have weaknesses, and
there's a tremendous unique role that SD can play and is, in fact, playing
to
improve understanding and decision making. The people building those non-SD
models just don't have the same perspective we do, and they can often miss
the forest for the trees. If I thought those other modeling approaches were
adequate for capturing the key dynamics of public health issues, I'd just
fold up my SD tent and go work for a health microsimulation outfit
somewhere;
after all, they're all the rage and raking in multi-million dollar contracts
these days. But I stick with SD because I think it has something important
and unique to contribute. I have written short papers for my clients
contrasting SD with other techniques, so that they can understand what we're
trying to accomplish and explain it to their colleagues.

This is the sort of explanation people should be able to read when they come
to the SD Society website. I would very much like to see a ""make-over"" done
for that website (starting with the home page)--which, after all, is one of
our main portals to the world--so that it can much more effectively
communicate to the world what makes us important and unique. Having an
effective portal might just reduce the chance that our approach would be
overlooked by others, as apparently happened with the ""Global System
Dynamics
Project"". Perhaps we could find a chance to discuss this at the SD
conference in Athens...yes, I know the time is short, but still.
- Jack Homer
Posted by ""Jack Homer"" <jhomer@comcast.net>
posting date Fri, 11 Jul 2008 20:48:18 -0400
_______________________________________________
Richard Stevenson <rstevenson
Member
Posts: 37
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by Richard Stevenson <rstevenson »

Posted by Richard Stevenson <rstevenson@valculus.com>

On 11 Jul 2008, at 19:30, Jack Harich wrote:
> Do you have a hypothesis for why this is so? Is it SD or the SDS that is
> invisible?

Jack.

The European project illustrates exactly my point. We (SD) should be
represented on this project. But we - SD - were not even thought of, nor
consulted. Why not? And who are ""we""?

If anybody here is really interested in developing the field of SD, then the
sooner we ditch the SDS and replace it with a professional body, the better.

I, (and from multiple correspondence, also many, many others) have had it
with the SPS. The SPS does not represent our interests - far from it. And,
by the way, I have hacked SD on the front line (and still do), so I am happy
to go my own way. I do it for a living and I'm pretty good at it. I do not
need the SDS.

So SDS - can you afford to lose people like us? I regret I shall not be in
Athens - but I'm sure you will all have a great discussion.

Richard Stevenson
Valculus Ltd

Posted by Richard Stevenson <rstevenson@valculus.com>
posting date Fri, 11 Jul 2008 21:06:09 +0100
_______________________________________________
<richard.dudley@attglobal.net
Member
Posts: 26
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by <richard.dudley@attglobal.net »

Posted by <richard.dudley@attglobal.net>

""How is it possible that such an important initiative could be started with
apparently no knowledge or involvement from the top people in our community
who have worked on this for decades ?!""

Certainly an interesting question, and I find myself agreeing with Richard
Stevenson when thinking about the answer. But this now highlights an
awareness that we need to start opening some doors and creating links with
other organizations, encouraging others to take a look at the substantial
contributions made by ""pure"" SD, and perhaps also taking a more active role
absorbing work done in other fields.

Jim Thompson points out that: ""Environmental science, climatology,
population
studies, atmospheric sciences and associated fields already use 'dynamic
systems' logic. From a gloss of the literature in those fields, the rigor
applied and techniques developed appear to be at least equal to the work of
""our community"".

I have been looking at this question with regard to ""environment, ecology,
and natural resources"" e.g. see ecological modeling, natural resource
modeling, environmental modeling...... there is, of course lots related to
SD
as in other fields that have a long history of modeling, like fisheries and
economics. SOME of this modeling is good SD, some is good SD-like, some is
definitely bad SD, and quite a bit is other types of modeling some similar,
and a lot not similar, to SD. But my point is that better application of
SD
and increase knowledge of SD approaches that have evolved over 50 years
could
be a good thing for everyone helping people to produce better structured,
more transparent models, that are also better at solving real world
problems.

The question is how best to accomplish this outreach and ""inreach""? The new
strategy, to be meaningful, must answer this question.

Richard
Posted by <richard.dudley@attglobal.net>
posting date Fri, 11 Jul 2008 20:05:05 +0700
_______________________________________________
""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategyd
Member
Posts: 36
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategyd »

Posted by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com>

Just a small correction - many academics have, and continue to have, very
substantial involvement in serious real-world challenges.

10-seconds' thought identifies Peter Milling's work with Lufthansa and
Volvo,
Andy Ford on major environmental issues, Erling Moxnes on fisheries policy,
John Sterman on GM's car-leasing strategy, Carmine Bianchi's work with SMEs,
David Lane on a huge variety of business applications, John Morecroft on
modelling oil-industry scenarios at Shell [which you may notice continues to
be entirely relevant .. the present dynamics of the industry and the
implications for strategy and policy are exactly in line with that work] -
plus others too numerous to mention on these and a host of other issues.

We may face challenges, but let's not imagine or exaggerate problems that do
not accord with the facts.

Very many professions have intense involvement of key academics and leverage
that involvement strongly, e.g. in setting standards and building
capability.

Might we agree, though, that SD faces [and has for many years] a major
marketing challenge ?? There's fantastically valuable work out there, much
of
the best done by or with academics. But it does need much more publicity.

Kim Warren
Posted by ""Kim Warren"" <Kim@strategydynamics.com>
posting date Sun, 13 Jul 2008 11:32:12 +0100
_______________________________________________
Carl Betterton <carlb@uga.edu
Junior Member
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by Carl Betterton <carlb@uga.edu »

Posted by Carl Betterton <carlb@uga.edu>

SDMAIL Richard Stevenson wrote:
> So SDS - can you afford to lose people like us?

I am one of those Richard describes who has ""had it"" with SDS, but certainly
NOT with system dynamics. The ""straw that broke the camel's back"" for me was
the new dues policy requiring a statement of my income bracket. I did not
renew my membership in SDS and intend to be a charter member of a new,
professional organization. If you wish to be included in that organization,
let me know and I will prepare an email list so we can get started.
(Richard,
if you already have such a list, let me know.

As Richard indicates, much that the SDS needs to do is, and has been,
painfully obvious for a long time, but the society seemingly just refuses to
take any action. Given below are snips from my post of 4 September 2007,
just
to illustrate that ideas have been offered prior to Kim's more recent
request. If someone were to sift through past postings of this list they
would see that suggestions have been plentiful but action has been absent.

* System Dynamics needs to claim a career field, and because of the
nature of SD that career field ought to be related to the overall
organization, as in Strategic Management or Strategy Development.
* System Dynamics also has no specific ""home"" within an organization but
applies to every part. So a natural place for SD is as an extension of the
top leadership, in the form of ongoing strategic evaluation for the
organization.
* Just look on our web home page and you read, ""System dynamics ...
models to confirm that the structure hypothesized can lead to the observed
behavior and to test the effects of alternative policies on key variables
over time."" Sure sounds valuable for strategy to my ears.
* So why not as a start at least, make strategy and strategic thinking
the central organizing focus of a System Dynamics Institute. A by-line
related to strategy could be added to the institute name, as in (just one
example): System Dynamics Institute - Strategy In Motion.
* One thing I do agree with Richard on is that our web site needs a
complete makeover. It was great when it was first established but the
expectations of web design interface have changed quite a lot in just a
short
time. Let's admit it, our web site regardless of the content has an amateur
look. Our web site does not do a good job of representing us as members. It
should be polished and professional.
* Why not develop and publish a ""Body of Knowledge"" about System
Dynamics.
* Perhaps publish a Dictionary of System Dynamics Terms.
* Let's commission a few ""white papers"" on what SD has to offer (in
strategy and other areas) and place them on the web for public consumption.
* How about credentials for a System Dynamics professional?
* How about revising the purpose of the society to include problem
solving? Currently we say: ""The System Dynamics Society is an international,
nonprofit organization devoted to encouraging the development and use of
systems thinking and system dynamics around the world. With members in
fifty-five countries, the Society provides a forum in which researchers,
educators, consultants, and practitioners in the corporate and public
sectors
interact to introduce newcomers to the field, keep abreast of current
developments, and build on each other's work"" Encourage development of ST
and
SD to what end? Provide a forum to what end? How about EXPLICITLY for
solving
some serious business, governmental, social, or other problems! How about
applying System Dynamics in a sustained way to bring drinking water and
basic
sanitation to millions who need it for example?

Cheers

Carl E. Betterton, Ph.D., P.E.
Posted by Carl Betterton <carlb@uga.edu>
posting date Sat, 12 Jul 2008 12:29:58 -0400
_______________________________________________
Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.co
Member
Posts: 43
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.co »

Posted by Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.com>

Richard Stevenson writes, ""If anybody here is really interested in
developing
the field of SD, then the sooner we ditch the SDS and replace it with a
professional body, the better."" Such a tone has been your constant refrain.

I find the points you make, though strident, to have some value. That said,
if you cannot, or will not, speak your mind without belittling and
denigrating people that I believe are doing the best they can, you can kiss
the south end of my north bound person - you are not the leader I would
follow, either.

The ""best they can"" may turn out to be woefully inadequate, good enough down
the middle, or brilliant. One can differ with their performance with
degrading them as people. Find another way to talk about them.

Bill Braun
Posted by Bill Braun <bbraun@hlthsys.com>
posting date Sat, 12 Jul 2008 18:14:03 -0400
_______________________________________________
""Antoni Oliva"" <aoliva@22si
Junior Member
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am

QUERY European 'Global System Dynamics Project'

Post by ""Antoni Oliva"" <aoliva@22si »

Posted by ""Antoni Oliva"" <aoliva@22sistema.com>

1) There are more SD projects going on in Europe than one may think

2) I took part on a European project (6th Framework Program, 2004-2007)
called INSURE, A Flexible Framework for Sustainability Indicators in Regions
Using System Dynamics Modelling. System Dynamics was used for both
qualitative and quantitative approaches. Quantitative approach was produced
by Wofgang Schade, from Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft in Germany; qualitative
approach was done by TAU Consultancy and myself, in Spain.

3) Broadly speaking, I think (continental) european SD projects differ from
those produced in the States in:
- the funding, most of them being partial or totally public funded
- the applications they adress to
- the approach: I would say we, europeans, tend to model systems rather than
problems, thus breaking one of the first laws on SD

I would not like to deeepen on auto criticism but I would add it is also
very european to undertake a program with several organizations all over
Europe and public funding, and forget about disseminating policies,
specially among those that could be interested.

Antoni
Posted by ""Antoni Oliva"" <aoliva@22sistema.com>
posting date Mon, 14 Jul 2008 10:45:47 +0200
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