System Dynamics Models for Education Demand

["fred nickols"]

Im thinking about trying to model the "behavior" of my companys business
environment. Specifically, the demand for higher education (the demand for
our products and services being largely a function of the demand for higher
education). It seems to me that there ought to be a reasonably finite set
of leading indicators (probably with different lead and lag times) that
could be used to play out the demand for higher education. Moreover, there
are abundant historical data against which such a model could be tested.
Before I go off half-cocked and reinvent the wheel (or an SD model), has
anyone already done this?

Fred Nickols
Executive Director, Strategic Planning
Educational Testing Service
(609) 734-5077
fnickols@ets.org
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[Bill Harris]

Fred Nickols wrote:

>Im thinking about trying to model the "behavior" of my companys business
>environment. Specifically, the demand for higher education (the demand for

Fred,

If Im misreading your intent, then I apologize. One of the things I have
read and experienced in what modeling and analysis Ive done is that a
major key to success is focusing on the specific problem you need to solve,
not modeling the behavior of the system. When focusing on the specific
problem, it is much easier to limit the model to the essential features and
to get meaningful results. When modeling the behavior of a system in
general, its very hard to know when to stop adding pieces to the model,
and its harder to assess its validity, since its not as clear what the
purpose is.

Good luck with your efforts.

Bill

--
Bill Harris Hewlett-Packard Co.
R&D Productivity Department Lake Stevens Division
domain: billh@lsid.hp.com M/S 330
phone: (206) 335-2200 8600 Soper Hill Road
fax: (206) 335-2828 Everett, WA 98205-1298