Models Used to Negotiate

[forda@mail.wsu.edu (Andy Ford)]

Erik Tan raised a question about the use of models in the negotiations
process, and Drew Jones replied with his views on how model "ownership"
influences whether the models becomes weapons in the negotiations or
whether they help the participants arrive as a shared vision of the complex
system. And Drew provided a good list of reading material. Another
book to add to Drews reading list was written by William Dutton and
Kenneth Kraemer on

MODELING AND NEGOTIATION:
The Policital Dynamics of Computer Models in the Policy Process

published by Ablex Pub. Co in 1985. Their topic is municipal finance and
budgeting. Although they dont talk about system dynamics, the book is an
interesting, case study to support Drew Jones first impression:

"that models created by one side of a dispute have been very successful
in helping that party make a stronger case for itself...but the overal
process can become more adversarial."


Another intriguing item for the reading list is the article by James
Henderson and William Lord in the Oct 1995 issue of the WATER RESOURCES
BULLETIN on "A Gaming Evaluation of Colorado River Drought Management
Institutional Options." They describe gamed negotiations on the Colorado
River (the most highly regulated river in the world!) using a Stella model
to simulate the hydrology of the basin.

----------------------------------------------------------
Andy Ford
Program in Environmental Science and Regional Planning
Washington State University
Pullman, WA 99164-4430
(509) 335-7846
FordA@mail.wsu.edu
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[Bradd Libby]

> Paul Starr, "Seductions of Sim, Policy as a Simulation Game," in "The
> American Prospect," Spring, 1994.

This article is also available on the world wide web at the Electronic
Policy Networks website <http://epn.org>. Starrs review of SimCity is
available on that site at <http://epn.org/prospect/17/17star.html>

Bradd Libby.
bradd@WPI.EDU

[jwr]

In the same vein as Andy Fords reference to distinguishing between
models "owned" by both sides of a negotiation and those used by one side
to buttress triggered, the following may be useful:

Paul Starr, "Seductions of Sim, Policy as a Simulation Game," in "The
American Prospect," Spring, 1994.

Starr, who has written extensively about the US health care system is
particularly concerned about the "black box nature" of many models.

John Rodat
jwr@signalhealth.com