Development of a SD Crimes Model

Stephen Shervais · Post by **Stephen Shervais** » Mon Apr 28, 1997 7:13 am

George,
Ive two references for you:

1. Last December, the Cascade Systems Society hosted a talk by Dr Barry
Anderson [PSU Psychology Dept] on "Modeling the Criminal Justice System."
An abstract is at:

http://www.sysc.pdx.edu/css/cssfl126.htm

It was a very interesting presentation, and concluded that a major short- term bottleneck was the number of judges, while
the long term limitation was the number of prisons.

2. Last Summer, at the SCS Summer Simulation Conference here in Portland,
one of the presenters at the session I chaired did a presentation on
"Using Simulation for Business Reengineering at Derbyshire Constabulary."
The paper is in the conference proceedings [ISBN 1-56555-098-6].

I have one email from that:

A.Greasley@derby.ac.uk

Regards,
Steve

Steve Shervais shervais@acm.org
Graduate Student shervais@sysc.pdx.edu
Systems Science PhD Program psu00872@odin.cc.pdx.edu
Portland State University http://www.sysc.pdx.edu
Portland, Oregon http://www.cat.pdx.edu/~shervais
(503) 725-7344 / 725-4997

"You think because you understand ONE
you must understand TWO,
because ONE and ONE are TWO.
But you must also understand AND."

- Sufi wisdom via Meadows
through Wheatly

George Richardson · Post by **George Richardson** » Mon Apr 28, 1997 7:32 am

There was a good dissertation done at MIT in the 1970s by Bill Shaffer on
the dynamics of the criminal justice system in Massachusetts. I believe
some similar work was done in Vermont but I dont know the details. A
data-based dissertation using a system dynamics framework to analyze the
causes of prison admissions in New York State was performed here at the
University at Albany several years ago by Paul McCold. Both the Shaffer
work and the McCold work ought to be available from university microfilms.

...GPR

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George P. Richardson G.P.Richardson@Albany.edu
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy Phone: 518-442-3859
University at Albany - SUNY, Albany, NY 12222 Fax: 518-442-3398
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forda@mail.wsu.edu (Andy Ford) · Mon Apr 28, 1997 11:02 am

This is Andy Ford responding to the inquiry about SD modeling of
criminal systems. Several of Bob Johannsens students at Portland State
University developed a "process simulation model" for a graduate course in
business process reengineering on the Multnomah County criminal system.
The stocks include arrested persons, prearraignments, arraignments,
pretrail, trail followed by people in state or county jails, etc. etc.

----------------------------------------------------------
Andy Ford
Program in Environmental Science and Regional Planning
Washington State University
Pullman, WA 99164-4430
(509) 335-7846
FordA@mail.wsu.edu
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George Stuart · Post by **George Stuart** » Mon Apr 28, 1997 5:34 pm

I am about to start on the development of system dynamics model of the
"crimes" system in New Zealand.

The first step is an initial model on "offences and enforcement". This
will be extended to include "court prosecutions", then "mustering" (ie
carrying out of sentences) and then "offender population". There are
numerous feedback paths and "soft" attitudinal/societal issues in this,
but initially we are keeping the model development as simple as
possible.

Does anyone have experience in this area, and know of any similar or
related model that could be worth learning from. Are there any key
references I should read.

I look forward anything anyone can suggest.

Many thanks from Downunder.

George F Stuart
george.stuart@berl.co.nz
Principal: Innovation & Strategic Systems
Business & Economic Research Ltd
Wellington
New Zealand

"Jay W. Forrester" · Post by **"Jay W. Forrester"** » Wed May 28, 1997 10:08 am

Perhaps the following will be useful, from the System Dynamics Society
bibliography:

Beijdorff, R.O. 1986. "CRISYS: A Model of the Criminal Justice System in
the Netherlands." In J. Aracil, J. A. D. Machuca, & M. Karsky, ed., System
Dynamics: On the Move. The 1986 International Conference of the Systems
Dynamics Society, pp. 1101, Sevilla, Spain: International System Dynamics
Society.

Lee, Hee-Kwan. (1981). A System Dynamic Study of a Criminal Justice System
and an Appraisal of Its Correctional Education. thesis, University Of
Minnesota.

Shaffer, William A. (1976). Court Management and the Massachusetts Criminal
Justice System. thesis, M. I. T.

Jay W. Forrester
Professor of Management, Emeritus
and Senior Lecturer, Sloan School
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Room E60-389
Cambridge, MA 02139
tel: 617-253-1571
fax: 617-252-1998

email: jforestr@mit.edu