Principles of Psychohistory

[jforestr@MIT.EDU (Jay W. Forrest]

Perhaps a diversion and a bit of history will be of interest to the system
dynamics and K-12 discussion groups, even if it does nothing to promote the
frontier of system dynamics. I received the following email from Chris
Trost, Ctrost@aol.com, referring to his two system dynamics subjects at
MIT:

>After completing 15.874 & 15.875 this past year I was struck by the similar
>concepts found in Isaac Asimovs Foundation science fiction series. His last
>book, "Forward the Foundation", details several principles of what he calls
>"psychohistory".

Trosts message reminded me of the "Week with Isaac Asimov" at The
Institute of Man and Science, Rensselaerville, New York, July 27-31, 1975.
About 75 people were attending. I was asked to speak one evening on
system dynamics and decided to base the description on Asimovs three laws
of writing science fiction.
----------------------
The "Three Laws of Futurics" in Asimovs essay, "O Keen-Eyed Peerer into
the Future," from the collection, "Of Matters Great and Small."
-----------------------
Quoting, with some editing, from my talk as given in the report on that
conference by Ellen Murphy, published by the Institute on Man and Science:

"System dynamics has striking resemblances to the "three laws of futurics"
of science fiction. The first law says: "What is happening will continue."
The way people are making decisions, the way in which they see their
self-interest, the way in which they respond to pressure are fundamental.
Human reactions have been pretty well standard through all of history and
they are likely to continue. There is a rationale for human action. If
you understand the rationale deeply enough, you can count on its
continuing.

"The next step in system dynamics modeling is to realize that one has
available all the information that is necessary as implied by the second
law: "Consider the obvious seriously." Very few people do so. In our
heads we have all the information we need to understand the nature of
social systems. Perhaps the greatest fallacy in all social sciences is to
ignore the second law, believing we dont know enough about the structure
of systems to understand.

"Then comes the third law: "Consider the consequences." The simulation
process reveals the consequences of the knowledge one has chosen and the
structures one has set up. Different policies, different laws, different
attitudes and values change the course of a system in the future. One
picks knowledge that is available and structures it to explain the baffling
behavior weve been seeing. We use simulation to examine alternative
futures by adoption of different policies.

"System dynamics modeling it akin to the science fiction process discussed
in this conference, with one very important addition. One can handle far
greater complexity in a computer model than in written descriptive form.
One runs through the three laws: assuming continuation of the present
nature of psychology, considering the obvious knowledge we have about
social structure and policies, and determining the consequences through
computer simulation."
------------------------------
When I finished, the chairman asked for reaction from Asimov who sat in
surprised silence. My comment to the audience was, "This is the first time
you have seen Isaac with nothng to say."

Jay W. Forrester
Professor of Management, Emeritus
and Senior Lecturer, Sloan School
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Room E60-389
Cambridge, MA 02139
tel: 617-253-1571
fax: 617-252-1998

email: jforestr@mit.edu

[TomForest@aol.com]

Great story! The similarity of concepts occured to me, among many others,
and was part of why I studied System Dynamics at MIT. One of my prized
possesions is a page Asimov autographed in my freshman physics book after a
lecture I attended in the fall of 76. I have read all of the Foundation
books, six seven, or however many he finally wrote.

There are not many System Dynamics work trying to model social systems at the
macro level Asimov describes in his work. Here are the few papers that I
think are most nearly in that vein:

Homer, Jack. 1978, "Civilization as Enterprise: The Lifecycle of Cultural
Production," Cambridge, MA: System Dynamics Group, MIT

Runge, Dorothy Hosler; Sabloff, Jeremy A.; Runge, Dale. 1976. Case Study of
the Maya Collapse Cambridge, MA: System Dynamics Group, MIT (WP D-2429)

Also relevant:
Forrester, Jay W. 1971. "World Dynamics" Cambridge, MA: Wright-Allen

Sternman, John; Wittenberg, Jason. 1993. Self-Organization, Competition, and
Succession in the Dynamics of Scientific Revolution. Cambridge, MA: System
Dynamics Group, MIT (WP D-4367)

Meadows, Donella H. et al., 1972. Limits to Growth New York, NY:
University Books Meadows, Donella H.; Randers, J=F8rgen; Meadows, Dennis.
1992. Beyond the Limits Post Mills, VT: Chelsea Green

...and my own paper from the 1995 ISDC:
Forest, Tom Lum. 1995. "Sustainable Civilization: Cohesion, Capacity, and
External Contacts." Proceedings of the 1995 International System Dynamics
Conference, The System Dynamics Society, Cambridge, MA

I also just submitted a paper for this years ISDC conference: "Byzantine,
Bulgarian, and Ottoman: The Dynamics of Empire at the Crossroads of Asia and
Europe."

If other work in this area has been done, or if there is other work in this
area ongoing, please let me know! Thanks.

Tom Forest
tforest@alum.mit.edu

["fred nickols"]

Thanks to Jay Forrester for the marvelous post regarding psychohistory.
Being a fan of Asimovs and a reader of the Foundation Trilogy many, many,
many years ago, I had noted--and doubtless been influenced by--but long
since shoved from conscious memory the notion of psychohistory (but, oddly,
the name of Harry Selden stays there for some reason). The Three Laws of
Futurics are new to me in codified form, but they are very consistent with
what I believe. Thanks, Jay.

Fred Nickols
From: "fred nickols" <fnickols@ets.org>
36-5077
09-C