System Dynamics in the elevator

["Richard G. Dudley"]

Alex Rodrigues wrote (in part):
I particularly liked the following statement:

"Things today are the things of yesterday plus any changes. The changes
are the result of the things of yesterday. Now extend this to
tomorrow."
From: bonnell@kodak.com

I also liked that comment.

It reminded me of complaints that my students had about a fellow faculty
member....
"His exams have questions like: define the world.... and give two
examples!"

The details arent there but the basic feeling is.

One of the problems with brief definitions is that often people are puzzeled
when you talk about "systems".... examples are always needed.

--
Richard G. Dudley

rdudley@indo.net.id
http://home.indo.net.id/~rdudley

[Anupam Saraph]

I followed the replies to Fabian Szulanskis request to brainstorm a =
definition of System Dynamics with great interest.=20

I offer the following observations:
* Its a pity to focus on the elevator or 30 seconds; The discussion =
itself clearly indicates the need to define what is being practiced (or =
discussed).
* Clearly there is no consensus or common practice; Is there a common =
method? Some may put it, should there be one?
* There are various definitions which focus on the output of SD, the =
input, the process or the subject of SD. Should there not be a statement =
of the object of SD (to me the feedback loop, especially if we go back =
to Forresters Principles of Systems; the design and study of the =
dynamics of feedback loops)?
* Implicitly the replies treat SD variously as an art, science or =
technology.=20
* Implicitly are we defining SD differently because we may belong to or =
be dealing with different pools: student, novice, professional...?
* The practice of clearly articulated methods yielding reproducable =
models resulted in the rapid change of our modern world (eg. Chemical =
technologies, engineering sciences). A common language (convention!) =
results in rapid exploration and exploitation of the concepts niche. =
Alchemy did not make the same advance as chemistry, Nor does psychology =
as geometry. What do we need to do to create a convention of SD =
practice? (Maybe some believe there is one already?)
* For a client a common language is easier to buy than many different =
lingos (unless as a pet-rock fad!)
* For a client a method yielding reproducable answers is easier to =
invest in than one which relies on the eyes of the practitioner.
* How long can we afford to avoid using reproducability of SD models as =
a feedback to manage SD practice?

Best Regards,

Anupam Saraph

Anupam Saraph, Ph.D., Partner
Change Reengineering n+ 79 Anand Park, Pune 411 007 (Tel: +91-212-383582 =
. Email: saraph@giaspn01.vsnl.net.in
Professor of MIS, ICFAI Business School, Pune

[Jose Di Mase]

If we receive a question like this we can not run away saying it is too
complex to be explained in the elevator, but we need to welcome the
opportunity to express our discipline and philosophy.

SD has to do with the study of a specific real life situation with the aid
of computer simulations. This allows us to discover and understand why, many
times, "todays problems are yesterdays solutions". It makes it possible to
test the effects of different decisions on future developments and "have
time working in favour of our goals".

The Fabians challange is generic in the sense that is not specific about
the profile of the inquirer, so the above expression is directed to a
generic public with a couple of "punch lines" (markerting slogans), that do
not need to be original but to act as seeds in order to wake up the
curiosity of the inquirer and have him asking for details hopefully in a
better circunstance.
Would it be better have a repertory of slogan for each occasion?:)

Jose Di Mase
University of Bergen
SD Master Program
josed@uib.ifi.no
kirk@star.flashnet.it

["Gene R. Bellinger"]

Heres a stab!

SD is a discipline for transforming the complicated into the complex. A
discipline for devloping knowledge and wisdom that form a basis for more
intelligent action.

And, as long as Im here, suppose I pose a related question.

Describe a general situation context for which the most intelligent
question a person should ask is, "What is System Dynamics?"

Ive been away far too long, and its good to be back!
--
Gene Bellinger
gbellinger@outsights.com
OutSights, Inc.
creating new insights
through outside perspectives
http://www.outsights.com/

[carolus]

Im not that often in an elevator, neither do I have trouble in
explaining what System Dynamics is all about.
The problem I do have has to do with the actual choice, within 30
seconds, out of the numerous - different - definitions and
interpretations or meanings of System Dynamics given, for example, on
this discussion list by those far more competent than me.

greetings,

--
Carolus Grutters

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Recht en Informatica Law and IT
Faculteit der Rechtsgeleerdheid Faculty of Law
KU Nijmegen, University of Nijmegen

URL: http://www.jur.kun.nl
it/
phone: +31 -24 -361.57.01 P.O. Box: 9049
fax: +31 -24 -361.61.45 6500 KK Nijmegen
email: carolus@jur.kun.nl The Netherlands
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[Bernadette O Regan]

I think this would be a very useful exercise as I was looking for such a
way to explain SD. I found a paper called SD in 25 words or less but
it went on for a number of pages!!

Bernie
From: "Bernadette ORegan" <bernie@b-i.net>

["Jay W. Forrester"]

---------------------------------
System dynamics deals with how things change through time, which includes
most of what most people find important. It uses computer simulation to
take the knowledge we already have about details in the world around us and
to show why our social and physical systems behave the way they do. System
dynamics demonstrates how most of our own decision-making policies are the
cause of the problems that we usually blame on others, and how to identify
policies we can follow to improve our situation.

[this may work if the building is tall enough, and if the person really
wanted to know]

Jay W. Forrester
Professor of Management, Emeritus
and Senior Lecturer, Sloan School
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Room E60-389
Cambridge, MA 02139
tel: 617-253-1571
fax: 617-258-9405 THIS IS A NEW FAX NUMBER, 8/28/97
email: jforestr@mit.edu

[Eric Wolstenholme]

It occurs to me that one neat way of expressing an elevator (lift)
definiton of system dynamics might be to present it as a mission
statement. Here goes:

The what, why and how of system dynamics:

What: A rigorous way to help thinking, visualising, sharing, and
communication of the future evolution of complex organisations and issues
over time,

Why: for the purpose of solving problems and creating more robust
designs, which minimise the likelihood of unpleasant surprises and
unintended consequences,

How: by creating operational maps and simulation models which externalise
mental models and capture the interrelationships of physical and
behavioural processes, organisational boundaries, policies, information
feedback and time delays; and by using these architectures to test the
holistic outcomes of alternative plans and ideas, .

Within: a framework which respects and fosters the needs and values of
awareness, openness, responsibility and equality of individuals and teams.

Eric Wolstenholme (Eric@Cognitus.co.uk)

["Mike McCann"]

Im a salesman. Id ask my fellow traveller "What make you ask?" or
"What makes you say that?"

If you dont know whats on the clients mind you cant address their real
issues. Any one who thinks otherwise has either been lucky (once) or
doesnt have to sell consulting services for a living. I found years
ago that the elevator conversation doesnt bring in business. Possibly
a good theoretical or academic question but in the real world "Forget
it". It wont pay the bills, and therefore has no value.

Ive found no matter how clever you are at encapsulating smart responses
in two sentences, the customer
places much more value in their own evaluation of the situation. You
work with their consequence - value statements.

So IMHO, for the REAL WORLD where you find your own salary, dont work
too hard on the 30 sec elevator speech, its probably only going to work
in an academic elevator.


Mike McCann
From: "Mike McCann" <mike@flex.com.au>

["Lane,DC"]

Youd probably have to say it very fast but Ive recently used (well,
written):

The creation of Jay Forrester of MIT in the late 1950s, system dynamics
is a modelling approach which is used both to understand how social
systems - in which human actors take decisions which affect events -
change over time, and how these changes might best be influenced. System
dynamics models represent the flow of information and materials which
connect the state of the system to the decision points, and also the
ramifying consequences of the decisions made. These closed loops of
causal links frequently involve delays and non-linear relationships.
Computer simulation of systems of this kind is crucial since humans can
conceptualise such complex models but do not have the cognitive capacity
to predict the dynamic consequences unassisted. Simulation enables us to
calculate the consequences over time of complex causal structures, so
that counter-intuitive behaviour may be explored in a rigorous way. Such
models can then be used to craft new guiding policies for the system and
to advance the intuition of those who will implement them.

Assisted by modern, icon-based software, system dynamics has provided
causal theories for a wide variety of phenomena. Forresters pioneering
work ranged from the management of growth in a start-up company to the
interaction of population and resources on a global scale. Contemporary
applications have included, for example, the diffusion of new medical
technologies, the dynamics of software development, the long-term
management of life insurance companies and the collapse of the Mayan
empire.

From: "Lane,DC" <D.C.Lane@lse.ac.uk>

[Arlen Wolpert]

System dynamics is a bootstrapping operation. It overcomes the
human cognitive capacity weakness to conceptualize the structure
of complex systems and predict their consequences. Once this
bootstrapping is accomplished, the great power and depth of the
mind can then organize vast amounts of information around that
simple structure and then meditate more and more deeply on its
implications and meaning.

From: Arlen Wolpert <awolpert@world.std.com>

[Alex Rodrigues]

I have followed this discussion with most interest. However, even though
I feel very comfortable with what System Dynamics is (having also read
various definitions in the literature over time), I have the feel that
the problem of achieving a widely shared and accepted definition has to
do with its requirements. Yes, like a model, a definition, in itself,
must have a purpose.

Why are we defining? To be able to understand ourselves what the concept
is about? To re-organise and bring rigour to our current understanding
and make this explicit? To distinguish the concept from similar ones? To
transmit our personal understanding of the concept to someone else? To
sell the concept to a potential buyer, making it look helpful to a
particular problem, and within a particular context? To discredit the
concept if we do not believe it, dislike it, or see it as a competitor
to our alternative concepts? To *discover* what the concept *really* is
and make *the truth* accessible to any human being willing to learn
about the concept? (and does it make sense?)

Different needs will naturally drive different definitions. In this
discussion, I have read some that focused on the need to solve a
certain category of problems. These definitions look attractive to one
living such problems, but lack rigour, and restrict the scope of the
potential audience. Other definitions, instead, searched rigour and a
generic scope: they look attractive to the thorough thinker, the
scientist, or the thorough modeller, and have the potential to fit
within a wide range of applications. However, they also require
abstraction and, thus, a kind of intellectual thinking with which most
of the "Client" audience can hardly cope. Finally, other definitions
sought support in the concept of "modelling", borrowing robustness form
it; these lack the ability of clearly differentiating System Dynamics
from other modelling techniques.

So, like a model, does it make sense to propose a definition without a
purpose? If the definition of System Dynamics can serve various
purposes, then the purpose is, in itself, one dimension of the
definition, which we often forget to mention -- I felt better after
reading Eric Wolstenholmes definition.

I particularly liked the following statement:

"Things today are the things of yesterday plus any changes. The changes
are the result of the things of yesterday. Now extend this to
tomorrow."
From: bonnell@kodak.com

This raises the issue that System Dynamics is one way, among many, of
thinking about and linking the past, the present, and the possible
future. Most models do this, and so does our mind everyday. So, System
Dynamics becomes as particular way of thinking and perceiving the world;
one that brings a specific rigour to this thinking, and one that may
help us feeling more comfortable about how we perceive the world, and in
particular the future. As we learn the discipline, we adjust our
framework of thinking to it, and if we feel better with we adopt it as
one of various ways of understanding reality.

Then I was struck by the eternal need of selling, and the consequent
imperative that a definition that does not sell does not survive. Whilst
true, I wondered whether the concept would survive even without really
helping people, but simply by selling. I wondered whether System
Dynamicists would become the "Leornardo DaVinci"s in the
modelling/management arena, able to sell beautiful models that managers
would gladly buy because they look nice, speak their language, say what
they like, and, more dangerously, help them to reinforce their
long-cemented ideas and impose these over the others. Personally, I
feel, quite strongly, that the answer should be no. A major role of
System Dynamics is precisely to induce a change in mental models towards
increased consistency. System Dynamics has the great virtue of forcing
people to think (often how wrong they might be), as opposed to relax the
need to think deeper. This makes the role of System Dynamics a most
challenging one in the arena of real practical management. Good
definitions of System Dynamics must support the mission.

Alexandre Rodrigues
From: Alex Rodrigues <Alex.Rodrigues@PA-Consulting.com>

[Carlsonpe@aol.com]

Ive often needed to describe system dynamics in the middle of exploring a
problem together with a busy client, although never in an elevator. I agree
with John that good listening helps elicit a better understanding of the
problem and builds trust, but I also find that being clear and concise about
my approach to addressing the problem is essential to the relationship.
Another way to think about "elevator speeches" is that they represent
statements about where we think the value lies in the work we call system
dynamics. That hardly seems irrelevant, either for consultants or for
academics.

My understanding of systems dynamics is very practical. Most of the problems
that my clients are wrestling with are too complex for them to handle with
their usual assumptions and problem-solving methods. And the environments
they are operating in are too uncertain to predict with any accuracy that a
specific action will produce a certain result. Most already know that from
their own experience. What they dont know is what to do differently.

I tell my clients that the greatest leverage for improving the performance of
their business lies in a deeper understanding of how the the business really
works, and that action without insight is likely to make the situation worse.
I suggest that the principles and methods of systems dynamics can help guide
them through all the complexity and uncertainty that seems so daunting,
helping them avoid getting completely bogged down or going off a cliff. I
let them know that its not easy and its not painless. It requires being
open to the possibility that their business doesnt really operate the way
they think it does. And if theres time and interest, I illustrate what Im
talking about with a story of another company that has been through a similar
experience.

I dont encounter a lot of resistance at this stage. The biggest (unspoken)
fear that executives seem to have these days is that theyre not up to the
challenges they face. On the one hand, theyre supposed to be able to figure
it all out because theyre leaders and thats what leaders are expected to
do. On the other hand, they cant figure it all out because the complexity
and uncertainty is simply too overwhelming. They respond very positively to
the idea that theres a science to help guide them.

I look forward to more elevator stories.

Pete
From: Carlsonpe@aol.com

Peter E. Carlson
Takoma Park, MD
301/891-7470

[Fabian Szulanski]

Dear Colleagues,
I invite you with the challenge of trying to define System Dynamics as if
you were in an elevator, and somebody was asking to you what it is when you
tell him that you are interested in this field; therefore leaving you less
than 30 seconds to explain.

I hope the generated brainstorming will be useful for all of us, who I guess
have already experienced that kind of question, and frequently we couldnt
do more than refer them to some Web sites, lacking a synthetic answer.

Be well...and in touch

Fabian Szulanski

Adjunct Assistant Professor
University of Texas at San Antonio
Master Student in System Dynamics
University of Bergen, Norway

E-mail address: fabians@swbell.net
Web Page: http://www.ifi.uib.no/student/sd/fabians

[RGDICKSO@mailgw.sanders.lmco.com]

To Fabian...I am someone who has been interested in modeling systems,
including human behavior before I was aware that this field existed.A
few years back, I was at a General Electric seminar and just listened
to a Systems Dynamics PHD student give a part of a pitch on
management. I immediately mapped his pitch with own little visualism
for the pitfalls of typical engineering processes...and explained it
to him...whereby he informed me of this field.

I have oftened wanted to get involved to learn this field either thru
attending MIT or perhaps the Roadmaps...but my dual career, 3 kids,
only 24 hours-in-a-day have prohibited me from doing so...in
conclusion then, when you recieve the perfect succint explanation for
this field pass it on to me...so I can convince Lockheed/Martin that
they need to send me to school for a year!...Thanks for your comment

From: RGDICKSO@mailgw.sanders.lmco.com

[Bob Walker]

"Elevator Speeches" are a very real part of our corporate culture. We
use the term everyday, and in most meetings. The point is that if you
cant explain something in less than a minute either you dont know what
youre talking about or youre trying to embellish and inflate your own
ideas with more words than you really need. I suppose some variation on
this theme is true in every large organization when youre trying to
communicate with senior management... who seldom have a lot of time for
anything, especially "scientific disciplines theyve never heard of".

Usually youre not really trying to answer "the question", or even to
say "everything" with a few carefully chosen packed-together words. Most
often its an opportunity to generate interest in the receiver, with the
goal of them asking for, or being open to, a more complete story. As
advertisers know very well you never get much time to do this... 15
seconds is a good practical limit. So, elevator speeches are worthwhile
for many of us, especially if your goal is funding in one form or
another.

I have three elevator speeches, never used verbatim, always paraphrased
or modified to suit the opportinity and the audience. Im listing them
here from their original sources but with a few wording changes as I
might be more inclined to actually use them. None of these changes are
intended to be corrections or amplifications, just a matter of personal
style. Please refer to the references for the verbatims...

1. "System Dynamics entails making three fundamental shifts of mind
relative to our traditional way of thinking. First, from linear, laundry
list thinking to a circular, closed-loop view of causality. This helps
us move from a static to a dynamic orientation and to much better
understand how things change over time. Second, a shift from an external
to an internal focus on performance, how we, not others, are responsible
for most of the results we get. Third, a focus on an operational view of
how things actually work. This is in contrast to traditional analysis
methods based on statistical correlations of trends from the past."

... from Barry Richmond, An Introduction to Systems Thinking, iThink 4.0
documentation, High Performance Systems Inc., Page I-12.

2. "Were applying the mindset of control systems engineers to improve
the dynamic behaviour of the systems we manage"

... from Geoff Coyle, System Dynamics Modelling, Chapman & Hall, 1996,
p.5. This is by far the shortest but only effective for a limited
audience, engineers of course, but finance types also react well.

3. "System Dynamics is a computer-aided approach to policy analysis and
design. It applies to dynamic problems, problems that change over time
-arising in complex managerial and economic systems - literally any
dynamic systems characterized by interdependence, mutual interaction,
information feedback and circular causality."

... from George Richardson, Modelling for Management I, Chapter 7, p.
47. I would also note that, for a corporate audience I would usually
change the term "policy" to "strategy". Semantics, but it works.

There are probably lots of others. In particular Jay Forresters Preface
to Industrial Dynamics (1961) contains the most succinct statement of
what the field is about that Ive seen anywhere... but Ive never been
able to encapsulate the richness of this treatment in an "elevator
speech". Perhaps others could suggest how.

Bob Walker
From: Bob Walker <rjwalker@sympatico.ca>




The paradigm of Systems Thinking

[roderick@copernicus.bbn.com (Ste]

Dear Colleagues,
I dont mean to offend by sounding tongue in cheek, but to this high school
teacher, system dynamics is a discipline that uses computers as tools to
compress time and expand thought, making manifest the changing conseqences
of complex and often circular relationships. It is the one disciple I can
think of that might explain why after getting on the elevator, pushing the
button for the sixth floor, and experiencing the ride, the doors open and
you find yourself back where you began.

This is a wonderful discussion. Thank you Fabian.

In peace,
Steve Roderick
roderick@copernicus.bbn.com
_____________________
"Is the sun the same as yesterdays
or is this fire different from that fire?"
-Pablo Neruda

Steven Roderick
Lincoln Sudbury High School
390 Lincoln Road
Sudbury, MA 01776
(508) 443-9961 x287
Fax: 508 443-8824

[rstanley@together.net (Rolfe Sta]

the value of systems thinking in 25 words or less or your 30 sec response
with a gun to your head. "

"Systems thinking allows us to understand the behavior and interrelations
among factors that are common to most natural and human systems.
Commonality and analogy are important words. " I bet that should be clear
to the average person!

Rolfe Stanley
From: rstanley@together.net (Rolfe Stanley)
Stanley Computer Center
Fletcher Extension

[Mohammad Mojtahedzadeh]

Ninth floor please!
Well, system dynamics modeling is the art of constructing thorough,
consistent, cogent stories narrating "how roads lead on to roads" (feedback
loops), and cause a series of events (dynamic behavior), in order to reveal
"what made all the difference".

Sorry, it got too poetic.


Mohammad Mojtahedzadeh
From: Mohammad Mojtahedzadeh <mohammad@hps-inc.com>
High Performance Systems, Inc.

[bonnell@Kodak.COM]

From: William S. Bonnell

System Dynamics:
Things today are the things of yesterday plus any changes. The changes are
the result of the things of yesterday. Now extend this to tomorrow.

From: bonnell@kodak.com

[John Sterman]

Bravo to Mike McCann. Even though Im not a marketing person, I agree with
his view on the low value of a canned "elevator speech". The key, in all
social settings, not only instrumental ones where you hope to sell someone
something, is to listen to the other person, get to know them, and
understand what they are interested in and how they see the world. That
is, treat the other as a person deserving of your respect and attention.
Then you have a chance of saying something that wont waste their (and
your) time, and which might actually be helpful.

Lets listen more and put elevator speeches aside.

John Sterman

MIT Sloan School of Management
E53-351
30 Wadsworth Street
Cambridge, MA 02142
617/253-1951 (voice); 617/258-7579 (fax), jsterman@mit.edu
http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www

["Scholl Greg"]

Mike McCann wrote:

"If you dont know whats on the clients mind you cant address their
real issues. Any one who thinks otherwise has either been lucky (once) or
doesnt have to sell consulting services for a living. <<snip>> So IMHO, for
the REAL WORLD where you find your own salary, dont work too hard on the 30
sec elevator speech, its probably only going to work in an academic
elevator."

I too sell consulting services for a living and am puzzled by this response.
The point of the original posting was, as I understood it, to solicit good,
brief descriptors of system dynamics to use presumably in the event someone
was interested. Blurting out a 30-second SD soundbite to a CEO who just hit
the 20th-floor button is probably not a good sales strategy; I seriously doubt
that was the point.

Understanding the appropriate context in which to use the SD soundbite would
seem to be a foregone conclusion. Once clients understand that you understand
their problem, they are frequently interested in how you plan to go about
solving it. For some clients, particularly operations people who manage
supply chains for a living, a robust, concise description of the SD
methodology could bring them in. I know this because on several occasions
(not just a "lucky once") it has worked for me.

The bashing of academia by those who subsist outside of it doesnt accomplish
much. Useful things come out of academic institutions -- SD is a case in
point. Recognizing the strengths and weaknesses of academia and the private
sector, particularly consulting, and working to bring the two segments
together where it is appropriate to do so could benefit everyone. Including
clients.

Greg Scholl
scholl_greg@bah.com

[Timothy Joy]

Just this last Sunday, I found myself in a position for more =
stressful than an elevator and an audience of one. I teach at La =
Salle High School, a small Catholic high school, where we have been =
using system dynamics in some classes and this year began an actual =
SD class. As we are a private school, we market and therefore had an =
Open House yestarday. Over 1000 people streamed through the school =
and many of them came into my room, children in tow. Imagine, about =
20 - 30 quizzical, adult faces staring at you, "So, what is system =
dynamics?"
After a few moments, another group came in. Non-stop for nearly =
three hours.

Roughly, this is what I told them:

System Dyanmics is a study of how things change. We look for =
patterns in a constantly moving, fluid world. You remember how we =
studied: focused on events, specific points in time. On its =
surface, that method cannot tell us enough. In system dynamics, we =
use computers and a special software to create models that simulate =
how certain patterns lead to certain kinds of changes. [I then =
rattled off a few examples, pointed to a student-built model of a =
nuclear power plant, and then directed them to some students who were =
working on models at tables behind me.]

"You can predict the future?"

No. If students can understand patterns that create change, they =
have a template. It helps them understand our current situation, our =
current palette of problems in deep ways. Further, by its nature, =
system dynamics is interdisciplinary; it forces students to =
see=8BAND THINK ABOUT=8Bthe world is a new way.

-----
I know this is not a full definition; maybe its poor and =
incomplete. But I wanted to underscore its wide application and its =
inherent difference from other methods, that SD is an =
interdisciplinary TOOL not just a computer class only upper division, =
smart kids can take. I spent 30 minutes wasting time talking about =
stocks and flows, about things that accumulate, about key ideas such =
as DELAYS, FEEDBACK, CIRCULAR CAUSALITY. I eventually abandoned =
those words.

Some people had heard of Peter Senge and Systems Thinking; that =
helped some.

I am still in a daze from yestarday afternoon. I felt beseiged, but =
warmly so.

Timothy Joy
La Salle High School
11999 S. E. Fuller Road
Milwaukie, OR 97222
503/659-4155
503/659-2535 {FAX}
tjoy@pps.k12.or.us
lasalle4@lasalle.pvt.k12.or.us