System dynamics in K-12 education

["Jay W. Forrester"]

Last week the "Systems Thinking and Dynamic Modeling--A Conference for K-12
Education" was held in Durham, New Hampshire, USA.

I have never before attended a conference with such a high level of
excitement, confidence, sense of past accomplishment, and hope for the
future. About 270 people attended, mostly teachers, with a scattering of
administrators and people with a professional background in system dynamics.

We are especially grateful to Lees Stuntz and her staff at the Creative
Learning Exchange for an excellent program and an ideal location to hold a
conference.

Especially notable was the progress reported by teachers in primary schools
and in middle schools. In one place, kindergarten students identify stocks
and flows in their environment. In at least one first-grade class the
students draw behavior-over-time graphs of changes they identify in stories
that are read to them (dynamics before they are doing their own reading).

My favorite sound bite from the conference was from a high school teacher
who said, "High school teachers who know what it going on are terrified.
They can see the day coming when the primary and middle schools will be
delivering little monsters that can THINK!!!"

Several teachers have said in various ways that they had no idea the
children could do so much. As the primary and middle school teachers
reported on what they are doing, various people, including the experienced
system dynamics people, said they would never have thought that such
learning could occur at so young an age.

So, I have a question for people on this list. What aspects of the present
existing knowledge about system dynamics do you believe can not be
understood by 8th grade (about ages 13 to 14)? Of what we now know about
the dynamics of systems, which techniques, insights about systems,
principles, and understanding of behavior can not be mastered before
students get to high school? I would like to compile a list of material
that people think must be deferred until high school or college.

---------------------------------------------------------
Jay W. Forrester
jforestr@MIT.EDU
Professor of Management, Emeritus
and Senior Lecturer, Sloan School
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Room E60-389
Cambridge, MA 02139
tel: 617-253-1571
fax: 617-258-9405

[Niall Palfreyman]

Jay W. Forrester wrote:
>
> I have a question for people on this list. What aspects of the present
> existing knowledge about system dynamics do you believe can not be
> understood by 8th grade (about ages 13 to 14)?

In my opinion, nothing. I have yet to find any concept which cannot be
understood by the average 13-14 year old, given sufficient interest,
time and patience. Of course, whether sufficient interest, time and
patience are available within the context of a school classroom is then
still an open question. Things which I have time to explain to my
children at home would not necessarily be suitable in the classroom.

Niall.

--
If we gain something, it was there from the beginning.
If we lose something, it is hidden nearby.

Niall Palfreyman mailto:Niall.Palfreyman@assyst-intl.com
assyst GmbH, Henschelring 15a
85551 Kirchheim bei Muenchen Tel: ++49-89-90505-230
Germany. Fax: ++49-89-90505-102/3

[Guenther Ossimitz]

Jay W. Forrester wrote:
>
:
>
> So, I have a question for people on this list. What aspects of the present
> existing knowledge about system dynamics do you believe can not be
> understood by 8th grade (about ages 13 to 14)? Of what we now know about
> the dynamics of systems, which techniques, insights about systems,
> principles, and understanding of behavior can not be mastered before
> students get to high school?
:
Some years ago I made a study about SD-skills with students aged 14 and
15.
>From that experience I think that the following issues are rather hard
for
that age:

* the notion of time delays, esp. exponential delays and higher order
delays
(which are thought as an accumulation of several exponential delays).
They can use them as a technical device, but it is really hard for
them
to understand the ideas behind it (eg. the idea that an exponential
leaking can be viewed as a "delay").
* the notion of continouos models where dt is an "infinitesimal"
time step (like in classical calculus); as well as concept of
higher-order integration techniques (like Runge-Kutta 4th order).
* the inner structure of very complex models that are not constructed
by the students themself! Students aged 14 can do rather complex
things
as far as these are their own ideas, but they are not so experienced
in
reconstructing the ideas others had implemented in a complex SD-Model
(like World3).

Best wishes,

G. Ossimitz

--
Dr. Guenther Ossimitz
Abteilung "Didaktik der Mathematik"
University of Klagenfurt
A-9020 Univ.str. 65 AUSTRIA/EUROPE
Phone: +43/463-2700-437 Fax:+43/463-2700-427
mail: ossimitz@bigfoot.com
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/main.htm
JESUS IS LORD - YESTERDAY, TODAY AND FOREVER!

[Niall Palfreyman]

Guenther Ossimitz wrote:
>
> I think that the following issues are rather hard
> for that age:
> * the inner structure of very complex models that are not constructed
> by the students themself! Students aged 14 can do rather complex
> things as far as these are their own ideas, but they are not so
> experienced in reconstructing the ideas others had implemented in a
> complex SD-Model.
>

Good point - this accords with my experience too. Although, I would say
that learning to see the world from a viewpoint other than their own
would in itself be a worthwhile goal for 14-year-olds.

Niall.

--
If we gain something, it was there from the beginning.
If we lose something, it is hidden nearby.

Dr Niall Palfreyman mailto:Niall.Palfreyman@assyst-intl.com
assyst GmbH, Henschelring 15a
85551 Kirchheim bei Muenchen Tel: ++49-89-90505-230
Germany. Fax: ++49-89-90505-102/3

[Guenther Ossimitz]

Jim Hines wrote:
:
> A control group of adults would have been interesting. My guess is
> that adults have the same difficulties.
>
:

I think so, too. Yet there is some difference: I think that it
is feasible for adults or elder students to make some effort to
teach these things whereas it doesnt seem to make sense to me
to try this with youngsters aged below 14.

Best wishes,

GO.

--
Dr. Guenther Ossimitz
Abteilung "Didaktik der Mathematik"
University of Klagenfurt
A-9020 Univ.str. 65 AUSTRIA/EUROPE
Phone: +43/463-2700-437 Fax:+43/463-2700-427
mail: ossimitz@bigfoot.com
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/main.htm
JESUS IS LORD - YESTERDAY, TODAY AND FOREVER!

[Bill Braun]

As an initial response I would say that the exploration of the actual
relationship between variables (constants, auxiliaries, stocks, flows) from
a math and/or algebraic point of view should not precede the students
exposure to these skills. To the extent that some of this is covered in
high school, defer teaching the relevant specifics of SD until then.

Bill Braun
From: Bill Braun <medprac@hlthsys.com>

["Compton, Dan"]

A strong second to Nialls thoughts. Here are three examples of deep
thinking discussions that I had with my 8yr old this last week.

Why do kings increase taxes on their people over time? There will come a
time when a large enough portion of the population will decided it is better
to be independent and forego the benefits of unity under the kings rule,
and they will revolt and declare independence.

Why do people kill tigers if they are endangered? First it gets harder and
harder to find big tigers and second the tigers will become extinct; then
nobody will have tigers.

What would happen if all the weeds in our yard were picked? How much time
would it take every week to pick the new little weeds? Answer: Zero to a
little bit (He does not yet have a crisp sense of time, but he easily
comprehends comparative growth through time.). How much time would it take
if the picking occurred only every month? Zero to kind of a lot of time (It
depends on the weather conditions.) How much time would it take if the
picking occurred every year only? Answer: Lots and lots of time; more than
all the times every week added together because the more weeds you have the
faster they spread. I will never have to explain why weeding is done even
though it looks like we can skip a week.

The complexity of the content is not the stumbling block to understanding.
The cognitive capabilities seem to be present for systems thinking even when
reading, writing, math, and telling time skills are not present. Our
assumptions that a bunch of schooling needs to take place before we can
think is wrong. Im wondering if for some, that schooling actually
diminishes the ability to think.

While systems thinking and causal loops should be introduced before K,
learning the modeling tools should wait until 10-14yrs. That way making an
SD model never becomes a replacement for thinking, but rather becomes a tool
to manage the complexity of the problems not handled rigorously enough by
causal loops.

--Dan
From: "Compton, Dan" <dan.compton@intel.com>

[Jim Hines]

Concerning Guenther Ossimitz interesting post about his investigation
into the difficulties that 14 and 15 year olds have with SD:

A control group of adults would have been interesting. My guess is
that adults have the same difficulties.

Regards,
Jim Hines
LeapTec and M.I.T.
JimHines@Interserv.Com

["James P. Thompson"]

I was invited to give a short (1 hr.) presentation on SD to an Advanced
Placement Calculus class at a local high school. The class comprised
mostly seniors with a few juniors. Several students from the regular
calculus course who had the period available joined the group.

We built a little model together in Vensim. The subject of the model
was a pizza restaurant, one that we assumed to be just opening in the
community. After a very short introduction to stocks and flows
diagramming, we started building the model. (I provided a little
guidance and did the mouse work.) We got things simulating with no
problems. After 40 productive minutes in which we modeled a marketplace
with potential customers and competitors, elements of attractiveness,
and the like, I made a "Julia Child proposition": I offered to show them
a small model on the topic that I had prepared before joining them. For
the remaining time, we changed constants and tested different tactics
(advertising, investing in new pizza products).

Everyone had a great time; none of the students or teachers had
difficulty with the concepts. I left them each with a copy of Vensim
PLE, the structure of the model we built in class and a copy of the
model I had prepared beforehand. Ive received several emails on the
experience and many good questions. Maybe we have converted a few more
by merely exposing them to the concept.

Jim Thompson
jim@GlobalProspects.com

[Lees Stuntz]

>I was invited to give a short (1 hr.) presentation on SD to an Advanced
>Placement Calculus class at a local high school. The class comprised
>mostly seniors with a few juniors. Several students from the regular
>calculus course who had the period available joined the group.

This sounds like a terrific experience and a good idea for others to use.
I have shared it with the K-12 listserv.

If it would be appropriate to send on the name of the school and the
teachers to me, I could then get them connected to the K-12 network. The
connection might be enough reinforcement to make the learning more
permanent.

Lees Stuntz, Creative Learning Exchange

Lees N. Stuntz
Creative Learning Exchange Phone- 978-287-0070
1 Keefe Road Fax- 978-287-0080
Acton, MA 01720 e-mail- stuntzln@tiac.net
http://sysdyn.mit.edu/cle/