Technology Product Obsolescence

[jerry_zygmuntowicz@om.cv.hp.com]

We are trying to understand the life cycle of technology products,
that is how long they last once purchased and put into service. There
is a large body of work around adoption and diffusion of new
technology, and I am looking for comparable information about product
obsolescence. Does anyone know of literature and/or modeling work
that has been done on retirement, obsolescence, or replacement of
existing technology? Are there characteristic curve shapes, such as
the "s curve" of diffusion, that can be used to represent a family of
relationships, and then the best curve can be chosen to match data
from market research or other sources? Any thoughts or leads would be
appreciated.

Jerry Zygmuntowicz
Senior Business Consultant
Hewlett Packard Company
(541) 715-1759
jerryz@cv.hp.com

["Roberto Vacca"]

Dear Jerry:
s-shaped Volterra-Lotka curves can certainly be used provided one has =
available low-noise long time series of data.
I have developed a SW package to get best fitting. If you want to try =
and send me time series (possibly with @ least a few dozen items AND =
showing definite growth or decline) I will process them and send back =
results.
best
Roberto Vacca
Director of Research ISIS, Rome Italy
From: "Roberto Vacca" <mc4634@mclink.it>