Sensibity graphs interpretation help

[Nub_User]

Hi,

Could you please help me understand and interpret what each of the "Confidence Bounds" (50, 75, 90, 95, and 100%) represents in this generic graph, which is the result of performing sensitivity analysis by changing the value of a constant in the model "n" times using a random uniform distribution?

I would like a theoretical or conceptual explanation to understand the meaning of the graphs I generate in my models using Vensim PLE+.

Thank you.

[aliakhavan89]

The graph you're looking at shows the results of running multiple simulations with different values for one or more parameters, each time randomly sampling from a specified distribution. The different shaded areas in the graph represent confidence bounds, which are intervals within which the outcomes of the simulations fall a certain percentage of the time.

Confidence bounds help you understand the ranges in model outcomes given the ranges in input parameters (or you can think of uncertainty). Narrower bounds (e.g., 50%) represent more certain or central outcomes, while wider bounds (e.g., 95% or 100%) reflect a broader range of possible outcomes, including more extreme scenarios.

[Nub_User]

thank you very much @aliakhavan89.