Try Fisher, J.C. and R.H. Pry. "A Simple Substitution Model of
Technological Change", Technological Forecasting and Social Change 3,
75-88 (1971)
If you cannot find this journal, I can send you a copy of the article.
Jim Thompson
--
Global Prospectus LLC
http://www.GlobalProspectus.com
jthompson@globalprospectus.com
Phone: +1 860 676 8152
New Methodology diffusion
-
Nelson Repenning
- Junior Member
- Posts: 10
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
New Methodology diffusion
You also might find the following useful,
Repenning, N. (1999). A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the
Dynamics of Innovation Implementation. Working Paper.
which can be downloaded at
http://web.mit.edu/nelsonr/www/Success.html
hope this helps,
nelson
From: Nelson Repenning <nelsonr@MIT.EDU>
Repenning, N. (1999). A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the
Dynamics of Innovation Implementation. Working Paper.
which can be downloaded at
http://web.mit.edu/nelsonr/www/Success.html
hope this helps,
nelson
From: Nelson Repenning <nelsonr@MIT.EDU>
-
Tom Fiddaman
- Senior Member
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
New Methodology diffusion
"Diffusion of a not known methodology in an environment" sounded
interesting, though I couldnt exactly pin down the goal of the work.
Nevertheless, Im attaching some references I dug up in the past, mostly
motivated by my research on diffusion (or other positive feedback
processes) of energy conserving technology. I hope at least a few are helpful.
The Argote, Sharp, and Teplitz references are good summaries of learning
curves in manufacturing - not really diffusion models, but a common way of
looking at technical evolution in general.
The Arrow and Kremer models are out of the endogenous growth literature in
economics. They are also learning-by-doing rather than diffusion models,
but there are models in the endogenous growth literature that are closer to
the diffusion paradigm. A citation search might be helpful. Theres also a
good book by Sala i Martin on growth theory, but I cant find my copy at
the moment.
The Sterman and Wittenberg articles might be more relevant - they concern
the diffusion of scientific ideas, with representation of problem-solving
activity and stocks of adherents to various theories. I consider this a
must-read for SD practitioners.
The Mahajan and Bass articles are good examples of diffusion models in the
marketing domain.
Jack Homers dissertation is a good SD example of diffusion coupled to
other important dynamics. Pal Davidsens masters thesis at MIT is an SD
model of oil markets with a lot of endogenous technology.
You might also have a look at the System Dynamics group website (John
Sterman, Nelson Repenning, et al.) for recent work on the diffusion of TQM
initiatives.
Regards,
Tom
Argote, L. and D. Epple (1990). "Learning Curves in Manufacturing." Science
247(23 February): 920-924.
Arrow, K. (1962). "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing." Review
of Economic Studies 29(June): 155-173.
Arthur, B. (1989). "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-in
by Historical Events." The Economic Journal 99(March): 116-131.
Bass, F. M. (1969). "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables."
Management Science 15: 215-227.
Berndt, E., C. Kolstad, et al. (1993). "Measuring the Energy Efficiency and
Productivity Impacts of Embodied Technical Change." Energy Journal 14(1):
33-56.
Boyd, G., S. H. Karlson, et al. (1993). "Energy Efficiency Improvements in
Steel Minimills." Contemporary Policy Issues 11(3): 88-100.
Brezis, E. S., P. R. Krugman, et al. (1993). "Leapfrogging in International
Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership."
American Economic Review 83(5): 1211-1219.
Cantor, R. and J. Hewlett (1988). "The Economics of Nuclear Power: Further
Evidence on Learning, Economies of Scale, and Regulatory Effects."
Resources and Energy 10: 315-335.
Christiansson, L. (1995). Diffusion and Learning Curves of Renewable Energy
Technologies, IIASA.
Davidson, P. MIT Masters Thesis.
Homer, J. B. (1987). "A Diffusion Model with Application to Evolving
Medical Technologies." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 31(3):
197-218.
Karshenas, M. and P. L. Stoneman (1993). "Rank, Stock, Order, and Epidemic
Effects in the Diffusion of New Process Technologies: an Empirical Model."
RAND Journal of Economics 24(4, Winter): 503-528.
Kolstad, C. D. (1996). "Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental
Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions." Journal of Environmental
Economics and Management 31: 1-18.
Kremer, M. (1993). "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million
B.C. to 1990." Quarterly Journal of Economics(August).
Mahajan, V., E. Muller and F.M. Bass (1990). "New Product Diffusion Models
in Marketing: A Review and Research Directions." Journal of Marketing 54(Jan).
Messner, S. (1996). Endogenized Technological Learning in an Energy Systems
Model, IIASA.
Moxnes, E. (1992). "Positive Feedback Economics and the Competition Between
Hard and Soft Energy Supplies." Journal of Scientific and Industrial
Research 51(March): 257-265.
Sharp, J. A. and D. H. R. Price (1990). "Experience Curves in the
Electricity Supply Industry." International Journal of Forecasting 6: 531-540.
Sterman, J. D. (1992). "Response to "On the Very Idea of A System Dynamics
Model of Kuhnian Science"." System Dynamics Review 8(1): 35-42.
Teplitz, C. J. (1991). The Learning Curve Deskbook. New York, Quorum Books.
Wittenburg, J. (1992). "On the Very Idea of A System Dynamics Model of
Kuhnian Science." System Dynamics Review 8(1): 21-34.
****************************************************
Thomas Fiddaman, Ph.D.
Ventana Systems http://www.vensim.com
8105 SE Nelson Road Tel (253) 851-0124
Olalla, WA 98359 Fax (253) 851-0125
Tom@Vensim.com http://home.earthlink.net/~tomfid
****************************************************
interesting, though I couldnt exactly pin down the goal of the work.
Nevertheless, Im attaching some references I dug up in the past, mostly
motivated by my research on diffusion (or other positive feedback
processes) of energy conserving technology. I hope at least a few are helpful.
The Argote, Sharp, and Teplitz references are good summaries of learning
curves in manufacturing - not really diffusion models, but a common way of
looking at technical evolution in general.
The Arrow and Kremer models are out of the endogenous growth literature in
economics. They are also learning-by-doing rather than diffusion models,
but there are models in the endogenous growth literature that are closer to
the diffusion paradigm. A citation search might be helpful. Theres also a
good book by Sala i Martin on growth theory, but I cant find my copy at
the moment.
The Sterman and Wittenberg articles might be more relevant - they concern
the diffusion of scientific ideas, with representation of problem-solving
activity and stocks of adherents to various theories. I consider this a
must-read for SD practitioners.
The Mahajan and Bass articles are good examples of diffusion models in the
marketing domain.
Jack Homers dissertation is a good SD example of diffusion coupled to
other important dynamics. Pal Davidsens masters thesis at MIT is an SD
model of oil markets with a lot of endogenous technology.
You might also have a look at the System Dynamics group website (John
Sterman, Nelson Repenning, et al.) for recent work on the diffusion of TQM
initiatives.
Regards,
Tom
Argote, L. and D. Epple (1990). "Learning Curves in Manufacturing." Science
247(23 February): 920-924.
Arrow, K. (1962). "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing." Review
of Economic Studies 29(June): 155-173.
Arthur, B. (1989). "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-in
by Historical Events." The Economic Journal 99(March): 116-131.
Bass, F. M. (1969). "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables."
Management Science 15: 215-227.
Berndt, E., C. Kolstad, et al. (1993). "Measuring the Energy Efficiency and
Productivity Impacts of Embodied Technical Change." Energy Journal 14(1):
33-56.
Boyd, G., S. H. Karlson, et al. (1993). "Energy Efficiency Improvements in
Steel Minimills." Contemporary Policy Issues 11(3): 88-100.
Brezis, E. S., P. R. Krugman, et al. (1993). "Leapfrogging in International
Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership."
American Economic Review 83(5): 1211-1219.
Cantor, R. and J. Hewlett (1988). "The Economics of Nuclear Power: Further
Evidence on Learning, Economies of Scale, and Regulatory Effects."
Resources and Energy 10: 315-335.
Christiansson, L. (1995). Diffusion and Learning Curves of Renewable Energy
Technologies, IIASA.
Davidson, P. MIT Masters Thesis.
Homer, J. B. (1987). "A Diffusion Model with Application to Evolving
Medical Technologies." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 31(3):
197-218.
Karshenas, M. and P. L. Stoneman (1993). "Rank, Stock, Order, and Epidemic
Effects in the Diffusion of New Process Technologies: an Empirical Model."
RAND Journal of Economics 24(4, Winter): 503-528.
Kolstad, C. D. (1996). "Learning and Stock Effects in Environmental
Regulation: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emissions." Journal of Environmental
Economics and Management 31: 1-18.
Kremer, M. (1993). "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million
B.C. to 1990." Quarterly Journal of Economics(August).
Mahajan, V., E. Muller and F.M. Bass (1990). "New Product Diffusion Models
in Marketing: A Review and Research Directions." Journal of Marketing 54(Jan).
Messner, S. (1996). Endogenized Technological Learning in an Energy Systems
Model, IIASA.
Moxnes, E. (1992). "Positive Feedback Economics and the Competition Between
Hard and Soft Energy Supplies." Journal of Scientific and Industrial
Research 51(March): 257-265.
Sharp, J. A. and D. H. R. Price (1990). "Experience Curves in the
Electricity Supply Industry." International Journal of Forecasting 6: 531-540.
Sterman, J. D. (1992). "Response to "On the Very Idea of A System Dynamics
Model of Kuhnian Science"." System Dynamics Review 8(1): 35-42.
Teplitz, C. J. (1991). The Learning Curve Deskbook. New York, Quorum Books.
Wittenburg, J. (1992). "On the Very Idea of A System Dynamics Model of
Kuhnian Science." System Dynamics Review 8(1): 21-34.
****************************************************
Thomas Fiddaman, Ph.D.
Ventana Systems http://www.vensim.com
8105 SE Nelson Road Tel (253) 851-0124
Olalla, WA 98359 Fax (253) 851-0125
Tom@Vensim.com http://home.earthlink.net/~tomfid
****************************************************
-
Habib Sedehi
- Junior Member
- Posts: 4
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
New Methodology diffusion
Im involved in a research project of analysing the process of ;
"Diffusion of a not known methodology in an environment" .
I would very much appreciate to have any suggestion, of any work done
(both based on SD or other) or in progress, linked to this subject.
Regards,
H. Sedehi
Please reply to: sedehi@help.it
"Diffusion of a not known methodology in an environment" .
I would very much appreciate to have any suggestion, of any work done
(both based on SD or other) or in progress, linked to this subject.
Regards,
H. Sedehi
Please reply to: sedehi@help.it
-
Corey Lofdahl
- Junior Member
- Posts: 6
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
New Methodology diffusion
If I might be so bold, my 1997 dissertation uses
both diffusion and SD models to get at different
aspects of the global system, specifically addressing
the relationship between trade and the environment.
An early version can be viewed online at
http://socsci.colorado.edu/~lofdahl/dis
(cf. statistical analysis, univariate & multivariate)
The diffusion models derive from the field of geography
as in Krugmans _Geography_and_Trade_. Representative cites include,
Cliff and Ord (1981) _Spatial_Processes:_Models_and_Applications_
London: Pion Limited
and
Getis and Ord (1992) "The analysis of spatial association by
by use of distance statistics." _Geographical_Analysis_(24):
189--206.
Also, Luc Anselin has done much work in this area:
Anselin (1995) "Local Indicators of Spatial Association, LISA"
_Geographical_Analysis_(27):93--114.
It is interesting to contrast SD & diffusion models as they both get at
different aspects of system: SD gets at time, and diffusion space. This
work uses diffusion models to construct a trade space, in which the
strength of connection among countries is not determined by distance but
by trade relationships. In this fashion, the hyper-connectedness of the
global system can be explicitly represented, something Ive had to address
fairly abstractly using SD. The diffusion models allow me to show that
GNP increases in rich countries "cause" environmental degradation in their
poorer trading partners. Pooled estimates that are not organized
spatially show simply that increased GNP is correlated with cleaner
environments. The policy consequences of these two models, diffusion and
pooled, clearly diverge. I then use an SD model to articulate more
clearly the theory and causality implied by the diffusion model, thus
showing why the results are not statistical artifacts.
Hopefully thisll all be available in book form by next fall, but the
dreadful prospect of further editing looms large.
Corey Lofdahl
Simulation Technology Division
SAIC
From: corey lofdahl <lofdahl@alum.mit.edu>
both diffusion and SD models to get at different
aspects of the global system, specifically addressing
the relationship between trade and the environment.
An early version can be viewed online at
http://socsci.colorado.edu/~lofdahl/dis
(cf. statistical analysis, univariate & multivariate)
The diffusion models derive from the field of geography
as in Krugmans _Geography_and_Trade_. Representative cites include,
Cliff and Ord (1981) _Spatial_Processes:_Models_and_Applications_
London: Pion Limited
and
Getis and Ord (1992) "The analysis of spatial association by
by use of distance statistics." _Geographical_Analysis_(24):
189--206.
Also, Luc Anselin has done much work in this area:
Anselin (1995) "Local Indicators of Spatial Association, LISA"
_Geographical_Analysis_(27):93--114.
It is interesting to contrast SD & diffusion models as they both get at
different aspects of system: SD gets at time, and diffusion space. This
work uses diffusion models to construct a trade space, in which the
strength of connection among countries is not determined by distance but
by trade relationships. In this fashion, the hyper-connectedness of the
global system can be explicitly represented, something Ive had to address
fairly abstractly using SD. The diffusion models allow me to show that
GNP increases in rich countries "cause" environmental degradation in their
poorer trading partners. Pooled estimates that are not organized
spatially show simply that increased GNP is correlated with cleaner
environments. The policy consequences of these two models, diffusion and
pooled, clearly diverge. I then use an SD model to articulate more
clearly the theory and causality implied by the diffusion model, thus
showing why the results are not statistical artifacts.
Hopefully thisll all be available in book form by next fall, but the
dreadful prospect of further editing looms large.
Corey Lofdahl
Simulation Technology Division
SAIC
From: corey lofdahl <lofdahl@alum.mit.edu>
-
Alan Graham
- Junior Member
- Posts: 8
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
New Methodology diffusion
Our own back yard:
Maier, Frank H. (1998). New product diffusion models in innovation
management-a system dynamics perspective. System Dynamics Review 14(4)
285-308.
Alan K. Graham, Ph.D.
Pugh Roberts Associates, a Division of PA Consulting Group
Alan.Graham@PA-Consulting.com
(US) 617 - 864 - 8880, x230, Fax 617 - 864 - 8884
41 William Linskey Way, Cambridge, Mass. 02142 USA
http://www.strategicsimulation.com/
http://www.pa-consulting.com/about/serv ... s_mod.html
http://www.pa-consulting.com/about/serv ... /proj.html
Maier, Frank H. (1998). New product diffusion models in innovation
management-a system dynamics perspective. System Dynamics Review 14(4)
285-308.
Alan K. Graham, Ph.D.
Pugh Roberts Associates, a Division of PA Consulting Group
Alan.Graham@PA-Consulting.com
(US) 617 - 864 - 8880, x230, Fax 617 - 864 - 8884
41 William Linskey Way, Cambridge, Mass. 02142 USA
http://www.strategicsimulation.com/
http://www.pa-consulting.com/about/serv ... s_mod.html
http://www.pa-consulting.com/about/serv ... /proj.html