Reformatting SDR: Reply#2

[Arlen Wolpert]

Prof. Forresters comment of March 24 appears to be a major
policy statement. The body of his statement is as follows:
"The future of system dynamics rests on high quality
work that serves a useful, practical purpose. Dangers lie in
proliferation of models that are trivial, and in modeling that
addresses only academic audiences and not the important
concerns of society.
"Acceptance and growth of system dynamics is probably
developing as rapidly as we have a right to expect for a field that
represents a paradigm that conflicts with many others that are
long established in academia, business, and politics.
"More important than any benefit that can come from
reformatting the Review would be to have more books aimed at
the public that use sound, rather simple, and powerful models to
shed light on the great controversies of the day--rising government
debt, welfare, population growth, retirement programs, increasing
overhead in society, balance of trade, drug addition, and financial
stability. These must not be the kind of presentations that are
designed to support a prior political ideology, but rather they
should show how the present problems arose, and what are the
short-term versus long-term tradeoffs in the future."

Prof. Forresters policy statement is about a complex system
involving the growth of system dynamics. Since any policy
statement concerned with a complex system will be
counterintuitive, it could very well be based on a system
dynamics model for the growth of either system dynamics
awareness or system dynamics practitioners.

If my hunch is right that he has a model in his back pocket,
I would dearly love to know what that model is. It may tell us
whether or not it is possible to grow system dynamics fast
enough to counteract the coming world crisis.


Arlen Wolpert
Independent Scholar
411 Franklin Street, Apt. 1008
Cambridge, MA 02139 USA
Telephone: 617-547-6994
email: awolpert@world.std.com