Resource modelling

[Jay Forrest]

I am a graduate student at the University of Houston -- Clear Lake in
Studies of the Future. As my Masters project I am in the planning stages
of a system dynamics model of resource demands in a world moving toward
sustainability. The model I envision will deal primarily with
transportation and transportatioin fuel and automobile construction
materials in a move to hybrid vehicles. If anyone has any similar models I
would like to know to insure that the work is original and useful.

Thanks in advance!
Jay Forrest
pteragen@neosoft.com
Jay Forrest
Pteragenesis
pteragen@neosoft.com

[saeed@ait.ac.th (Prof Khalid Sae]

To: Jay Forrest:

First of all, the resource problem, from SD perspective is not finding the
demand and the supply and exogeneously attempting to match them. The two
will eventually match. The problem is to have them do so without
catastrophe through influencing day-by-day decisions. You should carefully
study literature on resource economics. In particular, look at the writings
of Kenneth Boulding, Herman Daly and Talbot Page. In system dynamics
context, see also

Meadows, et. al. 1992. Beyond the Limits. Vermont: Chelsea Green

Saeed, K. 1985. An attempt to Determine Criteria for Sensible Rates of Use
of Material Resources. In Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
28(4).
(Also carefully study its references. A few of these do address demand
estimation)

Mesarovic and Pestal. 1975. Mankind at the Turning Point. London: Hutchinson

Khalid Saeed
saeed@ait.ac.th

Profrssor Khalid Saeed
Infrastructure Planning & Management
School of Civil Engineering
ASIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
G.P.O. Box 2754, Bangkok, THAILAND
phone: (66-2) 524-5681 fax: (66-2) 524-5776)