Diffusion models. Knowledge & Tools

[barron@met01.tesa.es (Antonio Ba]

Hello Everyone:

People asked me about the use of biological models to compare
the behaviour of business system dynamics.

At this moment I am preparing a paper about it, to present in
the SD 96, and perhaps, with the permision of technological
witches (=problems), it would be in a short time in the Virtual
Proceedings Papers, ...
Until this moment, I can give a few references of bibliography:

English:
Vijay Mahajan , Eitan Muller. Review Technological Forecasting
Social Change Vol. 50 N3. NORTH HOLLAND

French:
Andre de Palma, Jean -Jacques Droesbeque, Claude Lefevre.
Modeles de diffusion en marketing PRESSES UNIVERSITAIRES
DE FRANCE.

Spanish:
Silvio Martinez Vicente, Alberto Requena: Dinamica de Sistemas.
Alianza Editorial


Another references, others authors, with papers, studies, models
about the diffusion phenomena:

Lotka & Volterra.

James M. Lyneis: A dynamic model of Technology Diffusion. SD Conferen-
ce 1.993.

Robert L. Eberlein: User s Guide of VENSIM software.


I hope yours news.


In other order of things:

I agree with the comments of Ed Gallaher :

The first need to make models is to know the better as possible the
system dynamic. This knowledge is gotten by different ways:

Data historic
Data of others countries, enterprises, systems,...
Expertise opinion: delphi methoda: To listen to the expertise people.
...
Other similar models: Biological <----> social, new services, diffusion models,...

Glass ball (:-))

After the harvest and analysis, to summary and to translate to diagrams,
figures, and equations. At this moment is necessary a good tool (soft)
that helps in our work.
But the tool, the model builder, is auxialary, in the steps:

Knowledge ----> Analysys -----> Summary -----> Organization -----> TOOL


As better is each step, better will be the final model.

Antonio Barron
barron@met01.tesa.es

[jsterman@MIT.EDU (John Sterman)]

Re the discussion of ecological or other models of new product
diffusion. We have developed a number of diffusion models to study new
product lifecycles. Key references are:

Paich, M., & Sterman, J. D. (1993). Boom, Bust, and Failures to Learn in
Experimental Markets. Management Science, 39(12), 1439-1458.

Sterman, J. D., Henderson, R., Beinhocker, E. D., & Newman, L. I. (1995,
October). A Behavioral Analysis of Learning Curve Strategy. Working
paper WP#3864-95-MSA, MIT Sloan School of Management, Cambridge, MA
02142. Available on the WWW at:
<http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/BLC.html>

The management flight simulator, "B&B Enterprises", available from my
office, provides an interactive environment to explore product diffusion
in a competitive environment.

I also highly recommend the following:

Homer, J. B. (1987). A Diffusion Model with Application to Evolving
Medical Technologies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change,
31(3), 197-218.

Homer, J. B. (1992). A system dynamics model of national cocaine
prevalence. System Dynamics Review, 9(1), 49-78.

Jacks models, in my view, are the *best* integrated models of diffusion
dynamics in the system dynamics, or indeed, any literature.

John Sterman
jsterman@mit.edu

["Ulli H. Koenig"]

> From Ulli H. Koenig (ukoenig@is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de)

Here is another book that includes a very interesting part to
model a "diffusion model". It is Prolog/Dynamo-Program
that supports a dynamic market, you can decide which
sort of market you want to use (Monopol, Olygopol, Dyopol,
Polypol etc.).
Bibliography:
Frank H. Maier - Die Integration wissens- und modellbasierter
Konzepte zur Entscheidungsunterstuetzung
im Innovationsmanagement.
Duncker & Humblott, Berlin, 1995.
It is a PHD-Dissertation of the Industrieseminar of Mannheim
University. You can check our WWW-Homepage (http://iswww.
bwl.uni-mannheim.de) and the Bibliography of Prof. Dr. Peter
Milling to see how deep we are involved in Diffusion-Modelling.

Hope to see you at SD96

Ulli H. Koenig
(ukoenig@is.bwl.uni-mannheim.de)

Industrieseminar der Universitaet Mannheim
Lehrstuhl fuer ABWL und Industrie I
Prof. Dr. Peter Milling
Schloss
68131 Mannheim

Tel. 0621-292-2805
Fax. 0621-292-5259

WWW: http://iswww.bwl.uni-mannheim.de/