Crime

[saeed@ait.ac.th (Prof Khalid Sae]

A comprehensive reference might be Bill Schaffers Ph.D. thesis on criminal
justice, MIT 1977? I regret I cannot recall the exact reference.

Khalid
saeed@ait.ac.th


Khalid Saeed
Infrastructure Planning & Management
School of Civil Engineering
ASIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
G.P.O. Box 2754, Bangkok, THAILAND
phones: (66-2)524-5681, (66-2)524-5785; fax: (66-2)524-5776
email saeed@ait.ac.th

[George Richardson]

Paul McCold did a dissertation here in criminal justice using a
system dynamics framework to investigate determinants of the flow of
people into prison. It builds on Shaffers work from the 1970s but
differs from it in several substantive ways because Paul could not find
empirical justification for a few of Shaffers assumptions.

Pauls thesis is titled "The Role of Fiscal Policy in Producing Prison
Population Dynamics: A Trend Analysis and Dynamic Simulation of Felony
Offender Processing in New York State." It should be available from
university microfilms, if you are interested.

One of his most interesting findings is that "crime doesnt cause prison
admissions -- prosector resrouces are the prime determinant." That
oversimplifies his excellent work, but should serve to interest folk in
pursuing it further.

...GPR

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George P. Richardson G.P.Richardson@Albany.edu
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy Phone: 518-442-3859
University at Albany - SUNY, Albany, NY 12222 Fax: 518-442-3398
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[Ricardo Alberto La Rotta Forero]

I would like to know if there is any research on system dynamic models
about the way that crime generates as influenced by penal justice
eficiency, and how levels of criminality affect this eficiency.

Thank You very much




Ricardo La Rotta Forero %!
Asistente Graduado % !
Departamento de Ingenieria Industrial % !
UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES ! !
BOGOTA, COLOMBIA ! @
!
@

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[forda@mail.wsu.edu (Andy Ford)]

This is Andy Ford at WSU responding to the question (113) about System
Dyanmics applications to crime and the justice system. One interesting
example from the proceedings LSystem Dyanmics 95 is the paper by Kim and
Kim on the size of the penalty for speeding. They review a game theoretic
account of whether speeding violations will decrease with higher
penalties. Another recent example is the work by Bob Johannsen from
Portland State University using stock-and-flow modeling to help deal with
the problems at the Multnomah County Sheriffs Office.


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Andy Ford
Program in Environmental Science and Regional Planning
Washington State University
Pullman, WA 99164-4430
(509) 335-7846
FordA@mail.wsu.edu
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[gallaher@teleport.com (Ed Gallah]

>Another recent example is the work by Bob Johannsen from
>Portland State University using stock-and-flow modeling to help deal with
>the problems at the Multnomah County Sheriffs Office.

I havent worked to any extent on this problem, but I did sketch out a
model about 6 months ago after reading an article in the Portland paper
(BTW, Portland is in Multnomah County).

disconnected facts:

1. It seems as though hit-run fender benders have been increasing
significantly over the past few years. (not necessarily more hits, but
more runs.)

2. Drivers licenses are suspended for many reasons, including drunk
driving, failure to pay fines, etc. etc. However, many people continue to
drive with no license.

3. It would seem that if one were stopped for a routine minor offense, and
found NOT to have a license, that jail would be reasonable. After all, the
license was withdrawn for good reason, and the perpetrator is flaunting the
law.

However, the courts and the jails are overcrowded, so the penalties are
largely ignored in these circumstances.

4. If a driver is in an accident, and does not have a license, he or she
might very well be taken to jail.

5. If my car is hit by an unlicensed driver, there is a real incentive for
the driver to flee.

Connecting the dots:

I would guess that the system, which contributes to an increasing number
of unlicensed drivers, is significantly increasing the possibility that I
will be the victim of a hit-run. Obviously, exactly the opposite of what
the system is trying to do (as is most often the case!).

ed
(Ed Gallaher)
gallaher@teleport.com