Posted by ""M. Lehmann"" <mlehmann1@austin.rr.com>
> In thread: REPLY Fraction of Projects Qualitative (SD6068) Posted by
> ""Jim Hines"" <Jim@ventanasystems.com> Maybe M. Schwant's presenter was
> referring to the number of **issues** handled informally, vs.
> formally. If so, I can report that I handle lots
==============================================================
Is there any description of those informal techniques? I have had no training in system dynamics, but know I need some way of getting at ""issues"" and incorporating them in a framework that tells me something about behavior.
Specifically, I am investigating the effect of increases in the land tax, which lowers the price/value of land (think: it approaches rental value where sale value equals zero) in relation to the effect of the tax law, where the higher the land value the higher the tax, i.e., an opposite proportionality, somewhat delayed.
tax $ land $ land $ tax $
high ---> low low ----> low
and
low ----> high high ----> high , which, superimposed, is a
figure eight flow
I believe a high land tax, with other taxes accordingly reduced, is beneficial for taxpayers, especially if it is due in monthly payments like rent, and I need to work up some realistic conjectures. The public is everywhere bent on getting its property tax (land plus improvements) lowered, which is fine with anyone in the land sales and land speculation business, but a decline over time for everyone else, partly because with a low property tax cities aren't capturing the increase in land value due to the city's location with its increasing amenities.
Mary Lehmann
Keep The Land Foundation
Posted by ""M. Lehmann"" <mlehmann1@austin.rr.com> posting date Sat, 2 Dec 2006 09:54:22 -0600 _______________________________________________
QUERY Land Tax Dynamics
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QUERY Land Tax Dynamics
by ""M. Lehmann""
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""M. Lehmann""
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QUERY Land Tax Dynamics
by swarrte@comcast.net » Mon Dec 04, 2006 12:28 pm
Posted by swarrte@comcast.net (Tom Swarr) A low tax on land versus higher taxes on buildings also encourages demolition of older buildings in a declining city.
Posted by swarrte@comcast.net (Tom Swarr) posting date Mon, 04 Dec 2006 00:38:50 +0000 _______________________________________________
Posted by swarrte@comcast.net (Tom Swarr) posting date Mon, 04 Dec 2006 00:38:50 +0000 _______________________________________________
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QUERY Land Tax Dynamics
by ""John Gunkler""
Posted by ""John Gunkler"" <jgunkler@sprintmail.com> Mary,
How are people supposed to pay increasing land taxes? On paper, their net worth is going up, but such gains are not realized until the property is sold -- so where, for example, do those on a fixed income get money to pay the tax?
This is a serious problem now in Florida, where increasing property values (and increased taxes) have forced people to sell and move out of state.
And, as the baby boomers age and retire in droves over the next 10-15 years, the effects on a large portion of the population must be considered of taxes that increase regardless of wherewithal to pay.
Ad valorem taxes, in general, create some kinds of ""unintended consequences""
(that differ from what other taxes such as sales taxes or income taxes do) which should be captured in any model of effects.
What Florida did a few years ago was to change their tax laws so that new purchasers must pay annual ad valorem taxes on the full price they pay for a property -- but subsequent increases are capped (at 3%, I believe). This was working for awhile since, presumably, those who purchased property took into account what they would have to pay in taxes. However, as property values soared (ridiculously) over the past few years, the taxes began to price many people out of the market. This has contributed to the bursting of the real estate bubble in Florida.
One point is that there are consequences that change non-linearly (such as the bubble burst) as taxable value approaches high or low limits, and determining where these limits are is difficult unless and until they have been reached (so real data becomes available). Who predicted, for example, that it would take a doubling of value over five years (or whatever the exact figure was) to create a crisis?
John
Posted by ""John Gunkler"" <jgunkler@sprintmail.com> posting date Mon, 4 Dec 2006 13:21:51 -0500 _______________________________________________
How are people supposed to pay increasing land taxes? On paper, their net worth is going up, but such gains are not realized until the property is sold -- so where, for example, do those on a fixed income get money to pay the tax?
This is a serious problem now in Florida, where increasing property values (and increased taxes) have forced people to sell and move out of state.
And, as the baby boomers age and retire in droves over the next 10-15 years, the effects on a large portion of the population must be considered of taxes that increase regardless of wherewithal to pay.
Ad valorem taxes, in general, create some kinds of ""unintended consequences""
(that differ from what other taxes such as sales taxes or income taxes do) which should be captured in any model of effects.
What Florida did a few years ago was to change their tax laws so that new purchasers must pay annual ad valorem taxes on the full price they pay for a property -- but subsequent increases are capped (at 3%, I believe). This was working for awhile since, presumably, those who purchased property took into account what they would have to pay in taxes. However, as property values soared (ridiculously) over the past few years, the taxes began to price many people out of the market. This has contributed to the bursting of the real estate bubble in Florida.
One point is that there are consequences that change non-linearly (such as the bubble burst) as taxable value approaches high or low limits, and determining where these limits are is difficult unless and until they have been reached (so real data becomes available). Who predicted, for example, that it would take a doubling of value over five years (or whatever the exact figure was) to create a crisis?
John
Posted by ""John Gunkler"" <jgunkler@sprintmail.com> posting date Mon, 4 Dec 2006 13:21:51 -0500 _______________________________________________
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""John Gunkler""
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QUERY Land Tax Dynamics
by ""Jim Hines""
Posted by ""Jim Hines"" <Jim@ventanasystems.com>
>>>> Is there any description of those informal techniques?
By ""informal"" I believe that people in the thread are referring to all techniques/tools used by SDers, except for simulation modeling. These techniques are described in most of the introductory books on SD -- in older books they might be grouped in a section or chapter called something like ""the conceptualization phase"", because originally, they were seen as being stepping stones to creating (and then using) a simulation model. In more recent books these techniques might be grouped under the term ""systems thinking"".
Causal loop diagramming may be the most important of these informal techniques, though some would argue that stock-and-flow diagrams are at least as important. Causal loops have been a particular focus of the company Pegasus, and they have articles and other short publications on the topic (as well as on other topics). The set of causal loops known as ""archetypes"" might be interesting to you, if you haven't already seen them.
For something focused on stock-and-flow diagrams, you might take a look at Kim Warren's book Strategy Dynamics.
Jim Hines
Posted by ""Jim Hines"" <Jim@ventanasystems.com>
posting date Tue, 5 Dec 2006 10:44:42 -0500 _______________________________________________
>>>> Is there any description of those informal techniques?
By ""informal"" I believe that people in the thread are referring to all techniques/tools used by SDers, except for simulation modeling. These techniques are described in most of the introductory books on SD -- in older books they might be grouped in a section or chapter called something like ""the conceptualization phase"", because originally, they were seen as being stepping stones to creating (and then using) a simulation model. In more recent books these techniques might be grouped under the term ""systems thinking"".
Causal loop diagramming may be the most important of these informal techniques, though some would argue that stock-and-flow diagrams are at least as important. Causal loops have been a particular focus of the company Pegasus, and they have articles and other short publications on the topic (as well as on other topics). The set of causal loops known as ""archetypes"" might be interesting to you, if you haven't already seen them.
For something focused on stock-and-flow diagrams, you might take a look at Kim Warren's book Strategy Dynamics.
Jim Hines
Posted by ""Jim Hines"" <Jim@ventanasystems.com>
posting date Tue, 5 Dec 2006 10:44:42 -0500 _______________________________________________
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""Jim Hines""
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QUERY Land Tax Dynamics
by ""M. Lehmann""
Posted by ""M. Lehmann"" <mlehmann1@austin.rr.com>
> How are people supposed to pay increasing land taxes? On paper, their
> net
If governments were concerned, the simple thing to do is reduce accordingly the sales taxes and the improvement component of the property tax.
> This is a serious problem now in Florida, where increasing property
> values
If taxes on the land were kept high, as I outlined above, which would bring land prices down fast, but with some oscillation due to time-lagging reverse tax effects, that should do a lot to end the exodus. With negligible taxes on labor --our sales tax and improvement tax--, the economy would revive.
Taxes should not be based on ability to pay, because in a downturn, exactly when more tax money is needed, there will be less of it. That land tax money comes from the free ride every landowner gets through the price increase and low tax on his land whose location value the community creates. There's nothing new about these ideas. They've been around a long time, vigorously opposed by land dealers and speculators everywhere.
> Ad valorem taxes, in general, create some kinds of ""unintended consequences""
I'm suggesting there wouldn't be a crisis with a high land tax largely replacing other taxes (I call them taxes on incentive) If you always mean by value the appraised value of the property, with no high land tax to bring it down, yes it does keep going up and up until the ""haves"" can't afford it either. ML
[Host's Note: This discussion, though interesting, has gone about as far as talking will take it. Mary has defined a number of interesting dynamic hypotheses and it seems incumbent on the proponents of change to demonstrat their validity. Since this is a System Dynamics discussion list that demonstration should be done with something more formal. Less formal responses shold be directed to Mary or one of the other posters, not the list.]
Posted by ""M. Lehmann"" <mlehmann1@austin.rr.com> posting date Wed, 6 Dec 2006 14:47:15 -0600 _______________________________________________
> How are people supposed to pay increasing land taxes? On paper, their
> net
If governments were concerned, the simple thing to do is reduce accordingly the sales taxes and the improvement component of the property tax.
> This is a serious problem now in Florida, where increasing property
> values
If taxes on the land were kept high, as I outlined above, which would bring land prices down fast, but with some oscillation due to time-lagging reverse tax effects, that should do a lot to end the exodus. With negligible taxes on labor --our sales tax and improvement tax--, the economy would revive.
Taxes should not be based on ability to pay, because in a downturn, exactly when more tax money is needed, there will be less of it. That land tax money comes from the free ride every landowner gets through the price increase and low tax on his land whose location value the community creates. There's nothing new about these ideas. They've been around a long time, vigorously opposed by land dealers and speculators everywhere.
> Ad valorem taxes, in general, create some kinds of ""unintended consequences""
I'm suggesting there wouldn't be a crisis with a high land tax largely replacing other taxes (I call them taxes on incentive) If you always mean by value the appraised value of the property, with no high land tax to bring it down, yes it does keep going up and up until the ""haves"" can't afford it either. ML
[Host's Note: This discussion, though interesting, has gone about as far as talking will take it. Mary has defined a number of interesting dynamic hypotheses and it seems incumbent on the proponents of change to demonstrat their validity. Since this is a System Dynamics discussion list that demonstration should be done with something more formal. Less formal responses shold be directed to Mary or one of the other posters, not the list.]
Posted by ""M. Lehmann"" <mlehmann1@austin.rr.com> posting date Wed, 6 Dec 2006 14:47:15 -0600 _______________________________________________
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