There are insights derived from biology (1 see below) and archetypes used
in systems thinking (2 see below) that could have helped us analyze and
predict that Kosovo crisis would escalate in the way it has. Serbian forces
would perceive Kosovar Albanians as the immdeiate "cause" for NATO bombing
(Behavior under stress), and set out to escalate the ethnic cleansing in
response to this bombing. This would lead to more intense bombings, and
hence more rapid cleansing, ad infinitum (Escalation). (We are in this
unfortunate stage right now). This could lead to a fix, such as: an
independent Kosovo, a world war, total destruction of Yugoslav
infrastructure or some compromise mixture of these. An independent Kosovo
for Albanians could be a fix that causes future wars (A Fix that fails). A
demolished Yugoslavia would be a fix that fails. What should be done in
this case?
Obviously, this is an extremely messy situation, with goals and objectives
of parties not very clearly defined, or made explicit for security reasons.
Also, there is a rich cultural, religious social history that can make
people misunderstand the region and apply bad policies. Modeling of such a
situation, in my view, is very hard. Ideally, taking examples of similar
situations from the past and modeling them to show (as scientifically as
possible) that a scenario such as the current crisis is plausible would
make policy makers, hopefully, think and act differently in the future.
(1) The reference here is to studies done in biology on mice, in which they
were put on a metallic grid and given electrical shocks. The response of
these mice was to respond by attacking each other. To the extent this can
be extrapolated to humans, what it means is that humans would respond
similarly to systemic stresses by being aggressive toward each other
(examples: persecution of Jews in the thirties; the recent racial violence
in UK). If someone can give me the exact reference to this study, that will
be nice.
(2) Senge, 5th Discipline, pages 384 and 388, for details and influence
diagrams of how these archetypes apply to such situations.
Regards
Jaideep
From: j-d <
j-d@technologist.com>
**************************************************************
Jaideep Mukherjee, Ph. D.
Phone: 713 523 2713; Fax: 713 523 0379
Virtual Office
http://www.netopia.geocities.com/shunya/
**************************************************************