Ventana software support forum

Here are three brief responses to Alan Coronados query on models of War.
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There is a model by Khalid Saeed that models revolutions in developing
countries. I also two years ago adapted the theories of Barrington
Moore in regard to revolutions to system dynamics, and there exists a
whole literature on it in Poli Sci. I, myself, do not have any
first-hand info on more traditional wars. However, I believe Prof.
Nazli Choucri (I may have misspelled her name a bit) in the Political
Science Dept may be able to help you.

Id also be intererested in talking to you after I finish my General
Exams later this month. Im one of John Stermans doctoral SD students,
but my undergraduate degree was in European (and Islamic) History.

Ed Anderson
edanders@MIT.EDU (Edward Anderson)
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Cc: Jeff Potash <potash@moose.uvm.edu>, John Heinboke
<heinboke@moose.uvm.edu>

Though on a somewhat different topic, I would take a look at Jeff Potash
and John Heinbokes *Plagues and People* Stella models based on McNeils
book of the same name. Both the Peloponnesian War and the fall of the
Roman Empire are discussed in some detail. McNeil does great work on
your topic from a historical perspective. It would be good if you could
do Stella models of other of his accounts.

Jeff and Johns e-mail addresses are included in the cc.

Drew Christie
UNH Philosophy Department
drewc@hopper.unh.edu

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Re Alan Coronados request for models of conflict. The most famous is
the model of L. F. Richardson, a British meteorologist who formulated
the first dynamic model of conflict after his experiences in world war
I. There is a good discussion of the Richardson model(s) (he created
several, including a nonlinear one) and references to the literature in
George Richardsons (no relation) book Feedback Thought in Social
Science and Systems Theory. A search through the Social Science
Citation Index will uncover many more modern variants of the Richardson
model in the political science, futurist, and related literatures.

John Sterman
JSterman@mit.edu