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While not specifically addressing the growth of churches, there are some
"classic" articles on the multi-stage growth of organizations (in general)
that would apply quite readily to churches.

The seminal article (in my opinion), by Larry Greiner, "Evolution and
revolution as organizations grow," was originally published in Harvard
Business Review, Volume 50 (#4), 1972 -- and was reprinted in a book by
Steven Brandt, "Strategic planning in emerging companies," Addison-Wesley,
1981 (ISBN: 0-201-00942-0)

You might also get something from Robert Kazanjian and Robert Drazin, "An
empirical test of a stage of growth progression model," from the journal
Management Science, Vol. 35, No. 12, December 1989, pp. 1489-1503.

The descriptions of the stages of growth vary, but in general they all
describe S-shaped growth (in SD terms) and the more sophisticated ones
describe two potential "final" stages (depending upon strategic choices made
by the organization): a stage of decline (exponential decay or slower)
following the reaching of the natural limits of growth OR the initiation of
another S-shaped pattern of growth that breaks through the (former) limits
and strives for a new growth limit (in other words, the entire growth
pattern repeats itself at higher levels.)

I find these points to be most useful:

1. Organizational growth is well modeled by a "limits to growth" kind of
structure. I would pay particular attention to the early mechanisms that
can foster exponential growth; then to the way loop dominance shifts.

2. The whole point of a multi-stage model is that policies that contribute
to success in one stage are deadly in other stages. To take one example, in
the initial stage of growth (sometimes called the "formative" stage) it is
quite helpful to encourage risk-taking and innovation (trial and error)
until the organization discovers the "pattern of success" that can lead to
exponential growth. Once such a pattern is discovered, however, that kind
of risk-taking cannot continue without interfering with growth -- because in
the next stage (sometimes called the "normative" stage) what contributes
most to success is for the organization to become more and more efficient at
performing the pattern.

3. The descriptions of the "standard" growth stages, or phases, that I find
most useful in helping people think about their own organization are ...

Phase I: Formative -- finding a pattern that works; total dependency on
"market" wants and needs
Phase II: Normative -- working the pattern; near (and growing) independence
from the markets whims
Phase III:Integrative -- first recognition of limits to growth; need for
innovation and cooperation with former competitors
Phase IV: Transformative -- finding a new pattern that breaks through the
limits; bifurcating your efforts

although there are other useful ways of thinking about them.

John W. Gunkler
jgunkler@sprintmail.com