Panic Models

[latshaw.william@adlittle.com]

Hi,

I am looking for any models that you might have or know of that include
panicked behavior. I am working with a situation for the Y2K situation and am
especially interested in how perceptions produce reactions.

Examples would be: the run on the banks that preceeded/coincided with the
market crash in 1929, similarly 1987, the oil crises and gas hoarding, Johhny
Carsons joke on National TV that there was a shortage of toilet paper in
Hawaii - soon afterward all toilet paper and paper towels were sold out of
every store in Hawaii.

If you have any: models, papers, books, publications that include such
behaviors I would be grateful to receive them. Thank you for your help!

Bill
From: latshaw.william@adlittle.com

["John W. Rodat"]

Absent something directly applicable to panic, you may want to look at any
number of epidemic models for some ideas.

I would also suggest you take a look at the book, "Normal Accidents." Im
away from my office & dont remember the authors name, but its excellent,
especially on discussing notions of tight vs loose coupling of systems and
the consequences for multiple failures. That may be useful for thinking
about Y2K.

John W. Rodat
jwr@signalhealth.com

["Van Bowen"]

University of Md. fire science - behavior of exiting in a fire
emergency --> 50 years of seeing herd behaviors was discovered
to be helping behavior. Not sure of the title, but the fire science
engineering
dept. should get a quick ref. for you.

Van B
From: "Van Bowen" <vbowen@richmond.edu>

[Jamal Nasir]

Hello William,
Panic can be considered quit similar to epidemic. My suggestion is to see
"diffusion models" or "epidemic models" to get some idea. There are lots of
models that capture the phenomena of "word of mouths" or information
diffusion in which uninformed people get informed through contacts just like
epidemic.
Good luck
*******************************************************
J A M A L N A S I R
From: Jamal Nasir <jamal@mot.chalmers.se>
Systems Management
CHALMERS UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
S-412 96 Gothenburg, SWEDEN
Tel: +46 31 772 2491(Off.), +46 31 488093(Res.)
Fax: +46 31 772 2497, +46 31 772 1964
http://www.mot.chalmers.se/mcf/staff/ja_na.htm
<http://www.mot.chalmers.se/staff/jamal.html>
********************************************************

["Raymond T. Joseph"]

Bill,

Sorry for the fuzzy response:
Scientific American Magazine had a article desribing bifrucated surfaces and
used the fight-or-flight response of a dog. This was late 1970s to early
1980s.

Ray
From: "Raymond T. Joseph" <rjoseph@wt.net>

["David Gillespie"]

> I would also suggest you take a look at the book, "Normal Accidents." Im
> away from my office & dont remember the authors name, but its
> excellent,

Charles Perrow, Normal Accidents. New York: Basic Books, 1984.

David Gillespie
From: "David Gillespie" <davidfg@fidnet.com>

[EAST4WIND@aol.com]

Another book:
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Charles
McKay, LLD, 1841.

From: EAST4WIND@aol.com

[OSSIMITZ Guenther]

Raymond T. Joseph wrote:
> Scientific American Magazine had a article desribing bifrucated surfaces and
> used the fight-or-flight response of a dog. This was late 1970s to early
> 1980s.

It is the April, 1976 issue of Scientific American in
an article entitled "The Catastrophe Theory".

I wonder whether it is possible to bring the Catastrophe Theory viewpoint
(which is in a certain sense completely descriptive) "down" to a SD
modeling environment.

Moreover: Catastrophe Theory deals with situations where things
change dramatically after long periods of "smooth" developement -
like the moment when an avalanche starts off after a long period of
snow accumulating. I dont think that the Y2K issue is of that kind.

BTW: My prognosis is that NOTHING will happen next New Years
Eve.

Greetings G. Ossimitz

--
Dr. Guenther OSSIMITZ
University of Klagenfurt
A-9020 Klagenfurt, Univ.str. 65 Austria/Europe
mail: ossimitz@bigfoot.com
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/home.htm

["Mick Carrick"]

Try "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles
Mackay. Several editions in stock at books.com. The book was first
published last century and gives a surprisingly "systems-orientated"
analysis of mass human beliefs and behaviour and although a bit wordy, is a
good read.

mick carrick
From: "Mick Carrick"<Mick.Carrick@nre.vic.gov.au>