Petroleum and natural resource production profiles

[Brenda Burke]

Hi-

A few questions:

Does the Hubbert life cycle theory apply directly to natural gas
exploration, discovery and production? Is the USA well beyond the
peak of the curve? The world?

>Has anyone built a stock-flow structure that differs
significantly from Hubberts theory? Have any multinationals,
independents or OPEC members suggested alternatives?

All the best-

Brenda Burke
Operations/Training Manager
Successful Systems, Inc.
www.gjk.com/ssi
From: Brenda Burke <beb252@mfire.com>

(508) 660-6945

["Michael J. Radzicki, Ph.D."]

Brenda:

Some of your questions can be answered by pointing your browser to:

http://www.systemdynamics.org/distance_learning.htm

and clicking on the "Introduction to System Dynamics" tutorial.

I originally created this tutorial (with Robert Taylor) for the US
Department of Energy. It contains lots of energy examples, an discussion of
Hubberts work from an SD perspective, and an updating of Roger Naills
natural gas model (which is based on Hubberts work), including fitting it
to US natural gas data.

The tutorial also contains a discussion and overview of "all" the SD work
in energy (up to the time the tutorial was created).

Hope this helps.

Mike Radzicki


Michael J. Radzicki, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Economics
Department of Social Science & Policy Studies
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
Worcester, Massachusetts 01609-2283
United States of America

(508) 831-5767 (Office)
(508) 572-2612 (Cell)
(978) 422-7765 (Home)
(508) 831-5896 (Fax)

mjradz@wpi.edu (Office)
radzicki@comcast.net (Home)

[John Sterman]

Brenda asks about models related to Hubberts life cycle theory.

George Richardson, Pål Davidsen and I have done so. The relevant papers are:

Davidsen, P., J. D. Sterman, et al. (1990). "A Petroleum Life Cycle
Model for the United States with Endogenous Technology, Exploration,
Recovery, and Demand." System Dynamics Review 6(1): 66-93.

Sterman, J. D. and G. P. Richardson (1985). "An Experiment to
Evaluate Methods for Estimating Fossil Fuel Resources." Journal of
Forecasting 4(2): 197-226; also reprinted in Modelling for
Management. G. P. Richardson (ed.). Aldershot, UK, Dartmouth
Publishing Company.

Sterman, J. D., G. P. Richardson, et al. (1988). "Modeling the
Estimation of Petroleum Resources in the United States."
Technological Forecasting and Social Change 33(3): 219-249.

John Sterman
From: John Sterman <jsterman@MIT.EDU>