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Published, quantifiable results

Posted: Wed Apr 22, 1998 11:05 am
by Chris White
Im currently doing some research and need examples of the value of
using
SD models/analyses.

Specifically, Im looking for published documentation that quantifies
the
results of specific SD models/analyses in either dollars or ROI numbers.

These examples can come from any field (production and inventory
control, corporate growth, TQM and process improvement, human
resources, government acquisition, etc.). The results just need to be
quantified.

Please email me the source of the published document(s), any website
address that contains the document(s), or actual document(s) as
attachment(s).

If I get several examples, I will put together a bibliography of these
published sources and post it to the SD mailing list for others in need
of
the same type of information in the future.

Thanks in advance,

J. Chris White
Program Manager
Decision Dynamics, Inc.
4600 East West Hwy, Suite 410
Bethesda, MD 20814
tel: 301-657-8500, ext. 107
fax: 301-657-8626
email: jcwhite@decisiondynamics.com
website: www.decisiondynamics.com

Published, quantifiable results

Posted: Thu Apr 23, 1998 8:39 am
by "Fabian H. Szulanski"
Hello Chris,
There is one case that I recall, it is related with a legal battle
between the US State and a ship building company called Halter Marine,
which is part of an academic work (I think it is a Master Thesis in SD).
That SD work facilitated an economic compensation of about $ 0.5
billions for Halter Marine as a proof in that case. I dont recall any
ROI having been calculated, but my educated guess is that if calculated
it would be a big number.
Im sure that case is listed in the SD bibliography that appears as a
link in the Vensim site that is related with the SD mail list.
I guess the SD folks connected with the corporate world will add much
more examples.
Best Regards,
Fabian Szulanski
From: "Fabian H. Szulanski" <fabians@swbell.net>

Published, quantifiable results

Posted: Sat Apr 25, 1998 5:54 pm
by Jim Hines
Fabian H. Szulanski wrote:
>
> Hello Chris,
> There is one case that I recall, it is related with a legal battle
> between the US State and a ship building company called Halter Marine,

The original work was done by Pugh-Roberts and involved building a
project model to support a claim by Halter Marine against a customer.
Later, Kim Reichelt (a consultant with Pught Roberts) wrote an MIT Sloan
School Masters Thesis that took a retrospective look at the
ramifications on Halter of bringing a large law suit.

Pugh-Roberts has done many models for use in litigation. If you add up
all the cases, the total sum of money involved must be in the many
billions of dollars by this time. These models are usually models of
projects (e.g. ships, power plants, missile programs) which involve a
contractor seeking compensation for cost over-runs from a customer (e.g.
the U.S. Navy). Typically, the contractor alleges that
customer-requested changes resulted in "delay and disruption" of the
entire project and perhaps even affected other projects going on at the
same time. The result is that the cost overrun greatly exceed the
simple direct (i.e. staff and materials) cost of the changes.

The project model framework, which underlies almost all of this
litigation, was developed by Pugh-Roberts and a remarkable manager, Rich
Goldbach (now of Metro Machine), in support of a claim that Ingals
Shipyard had against the U.S. Navy. The Pugh Roberts people involved
were Ken Cooper (now president of Pugh Robers), Henry Wiel (now at MIT)
and David Peterson (now at Ventana). The project model is considered a
classic framework in the field, and is used not only in litigation but
in project management as well.

Ken Cooper wrote an article about the first project model and, more
recently, a series of three articles about insights that Pugh Roberts
has gotten into project management. Tarik Abel-Hamid (now at the Naval
Post Graduate School) wrote an MIT doctoral thesis on project management
in software, which he later published as a book with Stuart Madnick
(MIT). Terik has written a number of articles about managing software
projects.

Regards,
Jim Hines
LeapTec and MIT
From: Jim Hines <jimhines@interserv.com>