Ventana software support forum

Gary Bell asked for references to "first and third generation system
dynamics modeling."

The notion of such generations is potentially misleading. Forresters
original work in Industrial Dynamics and Robertss work in research and
development are still models of great modeling in the field. I would say
there are no "generational" distinctions, other than software, in the high
quality work in the field.

There have been some dramatic changes in software, which have enabled
changes in practice (such as group model building in real time and the
use of serious games as learning environments). But the underlying
modeling still looks the same and should be evaluated by the same
strict criteria that have been applied for decades in the field.

There are some changes in what modelers think they are modeling: in the
1992 interview in the McKinsey Quarterly, Forrester notes a change from
"modeling a process" to modeling to help people think about a complex
system (I dont have the exact quote at hand).

And there was a lovely speech by Ed Roberts at the 1981 conference in
Renssalaerville, New York, in which he distinquished generations or waves
of modelers -- the changing people dominating the field over time. But
not necessarily generations of standards or modes of practice.

The notion of "generations" suggests something more than a continuous
improvement process in the normal science of our field. It suggests that
what is done now is in the most up-to-date generation and therefore
better than in previous generations. I doubt that is true, and I worry
that it means that newcomers will not go back to learn from the great
work in our past.

...George


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George P. Richardson G.P.Richardson@Albany.edu
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy Phone: 518-442-3859
University at Albany - SUNY, Albany, NY 12222 Fax: 518-442-3398
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