S.D. Applications
Posted: Tue Apr 16, 1996 9:55 pm
APPLICATIONS OF S.D.
====================
Hello Everyone:
We read the discussion about the goodness of S.D. models. We think the
following:
The S.D. methodology has a few uses, between them,
I) Education (Primary, Secondary,...,University and/or Post-University)
Purposes: Understanding better the structure & evolution of a S.D. Model.
II) Business Management(firms, organizations, economic activities,...)
Purposes:
2.a) Generic: Same than above mentioned.
2.b) Being more exigent (= specific): Predictions or forecast of market, financial
investments,..., which are very important to these uses.
Obviously, the manager is interested in a solvent, explicative of reality
model, which can be corroborated with the reality. Otherwise, if the formulated
predictions (set on actions or politics of the firm : investments, staff, purchases, etc)
are not refuted by the results of business, it will be very difficult to convince the
Manager-Director about the useful of S.D. methodology.
Thus, the importance of having the most complete & clear posible information.
When this information is not available, this will not mean, that it can not
be arised another models that can help us to manage a business. We only have to
keep (mentally) the limits which we begin (start). We will look for likeness in
our environment of organizations which have a similar behaviour.
For example, nowdays we are modelling the new services of Telephony,
which have not historic data, so we have started on ecological models (Lotka-
Volterra), which, seeing our studies and the others colleagues -whose are applying
them in different fields -, explain the evolution of these new services.
We are looking for your news.
Antonio Barron barron@met01.tesa.es
Jose Maria Lopez ""
>>> Traduccion al colectivo hispano-parlante
Hola a todos:
Nos sumamos a la charla acerca de la exigencia de informacion a la hora
de modelar sistemas.
Creemos que entre otros, hay dos campos bien diferenciados por la exigencia
de los destinatarios:
I) El de la educacion, en todos los niveles. Propositos: Conocer mejor
la estructura y el comportamiento de un S.D.
II) Negocios, direccion de empresas, actividades economicas, sociales,...
Los resultados que se exigen en estos, por parte de una Direccion que
no sabe -o no conoce- de la modelacion, son muy duros. Por lo tanto, precisamos de
una informacion -historica, cruzada, ...- lo mas extensa, organizada, clara, ... posible.
Esto no quiere decir, que careciendo de parte de ella, no podamos contribuir a la
gestion o comprension de la evolucion de un negocio, mediante modelos. Nos podemos
auxiliar de experiencias o modelos de otros entornos que expliquen un comportamiento
o evolucion que conocemos, o entendemos que es similar. Por ejemplo: Estamos modelando
los nuevos servicios de TELECOMUNICACIONES, para los que no hay informacion historica.
En este caso, comenzamos partiendo de modelos (ecologicos) como los de LOTKA-VOLTERRA,
porque con nuestros trabajos y los de otros estudiosos del tema, comprobamos las
coincidencias entre los mismos: Ejemplo al explicar las curvas de poblacion o
de mercado, la canibalizacion de unos servicios por otros sustitutivos,...
Esperamos vuestras noticias.
====================
Hello Everyone:
We read the discussion about the goodness of S.D. models. We think the
following:
The S.D. methodology has a few uses, between them,
I) Education (Primary, Secondary,...,University and/or Post-University)
Purposes: Understanding better the structure & evolution of a S.D. Model.
II) Business Management(firms, organizations, economic activities,...)
Purposes:
2.a) Generic: Same than above mentioned.
2.b) Being more exigent (= specific): Predictions or forecast of market, financial
investments,..., which are very important to these uses.
Obviously, the manager is interested in a solvent, explicative of reality
model, which can be corroborated with the reality. Otherwise, if the formulated
predictions (set on actions or politics of the firm : investments, staff, purchases, etc)
are not refuted by the results of business, it will be very difficult to convince the
Manager-Director about the useful of S.D. methodology.
Thus, the importance of having the most complete & clear posible information.
When this information is not available, this will not mean, that it can not
be arised another models that can help us to manage a business. We only have to
keep (mentally) the limits which we begin (start). We will look for likeness in
our environment of organizations which have a similar behaviour.
For example, nowdays we are modelling the new services of Telephony,
which have not historic data, so we have started on ecological models (Lotka-
Volterra), which, seeing our studies and the others colleagues -whose are applying
them in different fields -, explain the evolution of these new services.
We are looking for your news.
Antonio Barron barron@met01.tesa.es
Jose Maria Lopez ""
>>> Traduccion al colectivo hispano-parlante
Hola a todos:
Nos sumamos a la charla acerca de la exigencia de informacion a la hora
de modelar sistemas.
Creemos que entre otros, hay dos campos bien diferenciados por la exigencia
de los destinatarios:
I) El de la educacion, en todos los niveles. Propositos: Conocer mejor
la estructura y el comportamiento de un S.D.
II) Negocios, direccion de empresas, actividades economicas, sociales,...
Los resultados que se exigen en estos, por parte de una Direccion que
no sabe -o no conoce- de la modelacion, son muy duros. Por lo tanto, precisamos de
una informacion -historica, cruzada, ...- lo mas extensa, organizada, clara, ... posible.
Esto no quiere decir, que careciendo de parte de ella, no podamos contribuir a la
gestion o comprension de la evolucion de un negocio, mediante modelos. Nos podemos
auxiliar de experiencias o modelos de otros entornos que expliquen un comportamiento
o evolucion que conocemos, o entendemos que es similar. Por ejemplo: Estamos modelando
los nuevos servicios de TELECOMUNICACIONES, para los que no hay informacion historica.
En este caso, comenzamos partiendo de modelos (ecologicos) como los de LOTKA-VOLTERRA,
porque con nuestros trabajos y los de otros estudiosos del tema, comprobamos las
coincidencias entre los mismos: Ejemplo al explicar las curvas de poblacion o
de mercado, la canibalizacion de unos servicios por otros sustitutivos,...
Esperamos vuestras noticias.