SD and Telecom

["Smits, C.A."]

Dear people

Im working with the Research and Development department of the Dutch
Telecom company and we are planning to make a simulation model on a high
aggregate level for the (Dutch) Telecom market.

Uptil now the forecasts for new services are being done seperatly (per
service). If you look at the "sum" of all this forecasts then people
should spend over x hours a day being busy with the consumption of
telecom services. Therefore we need a model that makes it possible to
look at the effects of introduction of several new services.

Do you know if a SD model on Telecom marktet exists? Or do you know to
whom I should address this question?

Best Regards,

Cyprian Smits
From: "Smits, C.A." <C.A.Smits@research.kpn.com>

["Joern Ewaldt"]

Dear Cyprian Smits,

a good address for modeling in the field of telecommunication, especially
Telecom markets,
is Antonio Barron (antonio.barron@telefonica.es).

With regards,
Joern W. Ewaldt
------------------------------------------
Dipl.-Kfm. Joern W. Ewaldt
Scientific Assistant
at the Chair of Managerial Economics,
Management Accounting and Control Systems

Brandenburg Technical University of Cottbus
Faculty of Mechanical, Electrical and Electronical, and Industrial
Engineering
PO Box 10 13 44
03013 Cottbus / Germany
Tel. +49 355 / 69 2993
Fax. +49 355 / 69 3324
Email: j.ewaldt@tu-cottbus.de
URL: http://www.wiwi.tu-cottbus.de/controlling
------------------------------------------

[Bob Walker]

Cyprian Smits commented on the issue of independently generated
forecasts for new telecom services being somewhat less than realistic
when aggregated together.

I would go a little further and say that the entire global high-tech
industry suffers from this delusion. As an illustration I once attended
a conference session where a well known Stanford researcher showed an
aerial photograph of Silicon Valley (about 90 miles of land mass) along
with data on the short term business plans of firms in the region. Their
total forecasts exceeded the GNP of the United States. So much for
marketing enthusiasm.

In Canadas largest telecom company we have not been exempt from this
problem. At least a helpful direction, if not a full solution, has been
the ability to position new service proposals within the context of our
top-down system dynamics model of our industry and business environment.
It provides a reasonableness check and can help to formulate useful
questions about the seemingly contradictory proposals being put forward.
Our top management are getting to like this capability to form an
integrated second opinion.

Bob Walker
From: Bob Walker <rjwalker@sympatico.ca>