Im placing a query on behalf of a USM colleague, Jack Jensen,
who is looking for any information from the Systems Dynamics
world into modeling that has been performed on the drivers of
an individual’s tendency to file a long-term disability (LTD)
insurance claim. For example, he is interested in seeing if a
downturn in overall economic conditions changes the claim-
filing behavior (or plays a role in changing the behavior) of
individuals who have experienced an injury. Specifically, he
would like to examine predictors of long term disability injury
claims rates and determinants of LTD benefit payments per
claim.
I have already examined the SD Bibliography and there is
nothing there on this topic. Any insights or tips would be
appreciated.
John Voyer, Ph.D.
From: "John J. Voyer" <voyer@usm.maine.edu>
Professor of Business Administration
School of Business
University of Southern Maine
96 Falmouth Street
P.O. Box 9300
Portland, Maine 04104-9300
SD and the propensity to file long term disability
-
"John J. Voyer"
- Junior Member
- Posts: 5
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
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"Ray on EV1"
- Member
- Posts: 29
- Joined: Fri Mar 29, 2002 3:39 am
SD and the propensity to file long term disability
I just had to add one more that I have noticed. The number of TV
advertisements by lawyers promoting civil action for LTDs. This may have a
correlation with a lack of other jobs to do.
Ray
From: "Ray on EV1" <rtjoseph@ev1.net>
advertisements by lawyers promoting civil action for LTDs. This may have a
correlation with a lack of other jobs to do.
Ray
From: "Ray on EV1" <rtjoseph@ev1.net>
SD and the propensity to file long term disability
John J. Voyers query is most intriguing.
To start with, I must confess that Im not an expert on disabilities or
injury claims.
Nevertheless, I would like to add some thoughts on this issue.
The query seems to have two parts.
The first is about the problematic behavior:
>(...) a query on (...) any information from the Systems Dynamics
>world into modeling (...) on the drivers of
>an individuals tendency to file a long-term disability (LTD)
>insurance claim.
>
This part of the query reminds me of the stock market.
Although the stock market is said to be understood by economists or
financial experts, a predicting model - more effective than "buy low,
sell high" - has yet to be made.
I read that even a gorilla - on average - can do at least as well as an
expert.
Or, referring to Heisenberg (1927) on Quantumphysics: "The position and
the momentum of particles cannot be both determined explicitly but only
in a probabilistic sense with a certain uncertainty."
In this perspective, one might be able to determine the total size of
LTD claims and payments - given a number of (economic) factors - but not
the actual payment to one individual.
The second part is about possible relations in the (LTD) system:
>(...) a downturn in overall economic conditions changes the claimfiling behavior
>(...) of individuals who have experienced an injury.
>Specifically (...) predictors of long term disability injury claims rates and determinants of LTD benefit payments per claim.
>
I guess that within this system there should be a place for a couple of
clusters such as:
1) population, labor force, health and the economy.
One of the main stocks being the number of employees or workers of which
the inflow is defined by economic growth and population growth and its
outflow by either disabled or non-disabled (such as retirement),
involving the risk of injury.
2) insurance capital; with an inflow defined by (% of) workers paying
for a disability insurance, the average premium and interest. The
outflow by the total LTD benefit payments. The latter influences the
average premium.
3) the number of claims defined by the inflow of new claims and the
outflow of granted or denied claims.
Between these clusters - I presume - a number of relations might be
distinguished. Amongst them could be:
the delay between filing and deciding a claim (claim-handling time), the
(average) amount of benefit payments and the willingness and ability to
pay for a disability insurance
Finally, I would recommend to elaborate on the (scope of the) concept of
LTD itself.
What does it actually mean?
For instance: is this concept only related to workers who are injured -
and then disabled - during their work?
Or does this concept also includes the events which take place outside
the plant i.e. during a holiday or just at home?
Will that be covered too?
If so, getting involved in a car-accident in traffic on your day-off
would increase the number of claims.
In a wider perspective car-safety or alcohol abuse could then come into
the picture.
Does the concept also include claims originating from lack of
craftsmanship or mere stupidity?
If so, the wider perspective of education, poverty and equal treatment
could have some influence.
Does the concept of LTD include mental disabilities or only physical
ones?
How about the influence of for instance stress, ME, or even the threat
of a war?
--
greetings,
Carolus Grütters
Law & IT
From: Carolus <c.grutters@jur.kun.nl>
University of Nijmegen
Nijmegen, The Netherlands
To start with, I must confess that Im not an expert on disabilities or
injury claims.
Nevertheless, I would like to add some thoughts on this issue.
The query seems to have two parts.
The first is about the problematic behavior:
>(...) a query on (...) any information from the Systems Dynamics
>world into modeling (...) on the drivers of
>an individuals tendency to file a long-term disability (LTD)
>insurance claim.
>
This part of the query reminds me of the stock market.
Although the stock market is said to be understood by economists or
financial experts, a predicting model - more effective than "buy low,
sell high" - has yet to be made.
I read that even a gorilla - on average - can do at least as well as an
expert.
Or, referring to Heisenberg (1927) on Quantumphysics: "The position and
the momentum of particles cannot be both determined explicitly but only
in a probabilistic sense with a certain uncertainty."
In this perspective, one might be able to determine the total size of
LTD claims and payments - given a number of (economic) factors - but not
the actual payment to one individual.
The second part is about possible relations in the (LTD) system:
>(...) a downturn in overall economic conditions changes the claimfiling behavior
>(...) of individuals who have experienced an injury.
>Specifically (...) predictors of long term disability injury claims rates and determinants of LTD benefit payments per claim.
>
I guess that within this system there should be a place for a couple of
clusters such as:
1) population, labor force, health and the economy.
One of the main stocks being the number of employees or workers of which
the inflow is defined by economic growth and population growth and its
outflow by either disabled or non-disabled (such as retirement),
involving the risk of injury.
2) insurance capital; with an inflow defined by (% of) workers paying
for a disability insurance, the average premium and interest. The
outflow by the total LTD benefit payments. The latter influences the
average premium.
3) the number of claims defined by the inflow of new claims and the
outflow of granted or denied claims.
Between these clusters - I presume - a number of relations might be
distinguished. Amongst them could be:
the delay between filing and deciding a claim (claim-handling time), the
(average) amount of benefit payments and the willingness and ability to
pay for a disability insurance
Finally, I would recommend to elaborate on the (scope of the) concept of
LTD itself.
What does it actually mean?
For instance: is this concept only related to workers who are injured -
and then disabled - during their work?
Or does this concept also includes the events which take place outside
the plant i.e. during a holiday or just at home?
Will that be covered too?
If so, getting involved in a car-accident in traffic on your day-off
would increase the number of claims.
In a wider perspective car-safety or alcohol abuse could then come into
the picture.
Does the concept also include claims originating from lack of
craftsmanship or mere stupidity?
If so, the wider perspective of education, poverty and equal treatment
could have some influence.
Does the concept of LTD include mental disabilities or only physical
ones?
How about the influence of for instance stress, ME, or even the threat
of a war?
--
greetings,
Carolus Grütters
Law & IT
From: Carolus <c.grutters@jur.kun.nl>
University of Nijmegen
Nijmegen, The Netherlands