Details of the new course at the London School of Economics are shown
below:
System Dynamics Modelling (Half unit course)
Teacher Responsible: Dr. D. C. Lane
Availability and Restrictions: The course is intended for
students on the M.Sc. courses in Operational Research and
Decision Science. Students from other degrees are most welcome
but will only be admitted by agreement. Pre-requisites are a
sound understanding of algebraic and functional relationships
as well as comfort with the use of differential equations and
the practical use of computer packages.
Core Syllabus: This course introduces the theory and
application of the system dynamics modelling approach as it is
used to support strategic decision making in complex social
systems. It involves the qualitative and quantitative mapping
of the relevant system structure (including physical
processes, information links and human decision making) and
the simulation of the dynamic consequences of that structure.
The aim is both to examine the general modes of behaviour that
result so as to gain qualitative insights and also to
experiment with alternative policies in order to formulate
ones which improve behaviour. It has three distinctive themes:
the concept of information feedback, the use of computer
simulation models to explore complex behaviour and the need to
work with the mental models of relevant system actors (with a
view both to drawing on the relevant knowledge and
interpretations of the system and to implementing the insights
gained from the modelling process). The course deals with all
stages of the modelling approach as well is introducing some
research topics in the field. Students will use state of the
art simulation software with a graphical interface (currently
STELLA/iThink) and will be expected to work extensively with
quantitative computer models. The practical application of
system dynamics will be emphasised throughout, using various
cases studies from business, public-policy making and
elsewhere.
Course Content: The course is structured primarily around
three themes, each with its own topics:
Feedback: Modelling feedback with causal loop diagrams (the
concept of feedback, CLDs, conceptualisation exercises, the
limits of CLDs).
Simulation Modelling: Simple structures (positive loop,
negative loop, coupled loops, loop polarity and shifts in loop
dominance), model formulation (rate equations, auxiliary
equations, table functions, levels, delays, representation of
decision processes, principles of formulation), model testing
(understanding model behaviour, sensitivity analysis), policy
analysis (general approach, application to inventory
management).
Working with Mental Models: Insights and archetypes (necessity
and benefits of system dynamics, use and abuse of archetypes,
general system insights), system dynamics in organisations (as
group decision support tool, as organisational learning tool).
In addition students will be introduced to: critiques of
system dynamics, further applications, current research
problems
Teaching Arrangements: Three sessions per week (primarily
lectures but including some problems classes) for the 10 weeks
of Lent Term.
Reading List: J.W.Forrester, Industrial Dynamics,
G.P.Richardson & A.L.Pugh, Introduction to Systems Dynamics
Modelling with DYNAMO, J.W.Forrester, Principles of Systems,
J.Randers, Elements of the System Dynamics Method,
J.D.W.Morecroft & J.Sterman, Modelling for Learning
Organizations, G.P.Richardson, Feedback Thought in Social
Science and System Theory, P.M.Senge, The Fifth Discipline,
D.H.Meadows, The Global Citizen, various research papers from
the BLPES offprints collection..
Methods of Assessment: The course is examined by four pieces
of individual course work. These involve the following general
areas and mark weightings: problem conceptualisation using
causal loop diagrams (20%), loop polarity (10%), computer
model formulation (30%) and analysis of a pre-built simulation
model and production of a management report on resulting
policy insights (40%). These pieces of work are made available
throughout the course and have staged hand-in dates, the last
being on the first day of Summer Term.
David Lane
D.C.Lane@lse.ac.uk