Ventana software support forum

Norman Marshall raises an interesting point in the scope of the practice of
system dynamics. Thinking clearly and precisely in the domain of both
quantitative and qualitative information about the real world along with
mapping techniques for eliciting stock-and-flow and feedback loop
structures, what Richmond calls operational thinking, are the foremost key
to learning about complex systems. Andersen (ISDC 1997) refers to such
level of learning which sharpens clarity of thoughts and provide a basis
for better communication as the level I and level II insights.

The more advanced insight and learning about the complex systems, however,
comes from rigorous modeling effort and understanding the dynamic
consequences of side effects and time delays. It is the lack of
understanding of side effects and time delays that organizations often
foster contradictory and unrealistic goals. For instance, the market
growth model (Forrester 1968) shows how, in the presence of time delays and
side effects, adopting aggressive revenue generation and cost saving
strategy can lead to "troubled growth" (growth along with oscillation).

Keynes did not claim that things happen instantaneously; his famous quote
--we are all dead in the long run-- was indeed to undermine the comparative
analysis of classical economic theory. His multiplier effect is a subtle
dynamic phenomena; it takes rounds of transactions for the multiplier
effect to manifest its ultimate impact. The Keynes multiplier effect
contains the side effect complexity as well. This side effect reveals that
an exogenous change in investment, for example, will have a much bigger
impact on the aggregate demand than the magnitude of the change itself.



Mohammad Mojtahedzadeh
High Performance Systems, Inc.
From: Mohammad Mojtahedzadeh <mohammad@hps-inc.com>